Swiss Data Science Centre, ETH Zurich, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.
Functional Ecology Research Group, Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria.
Nat Commun. 2022 Jul 25;13(1):4310. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32001-z.
Anthropogenic nitrogen inputs cause major negative environmental impacts, including emissions of the important greenhouse gas NO. Despite their importance, shifts in terrestrial N loss pathways driven by global change are highly uncertain. Here we present a coupled soil-atmosphere isotope model (IsoTONE) to quantify terrestrial N losses and NO emission factors from 1850-2020. We find that N inputs from atmospheric deposition caused 51% of anthropogenic NO emissions from soils in 2020. The mean effective global emission factor for NO was 4.3 ± 0.3% in 2020 (weighted by N inputs), much higher than the surface area-weighted mean (1.1 ± 0.1%). Climate change and spatial redistribution of fertilisation N inputs have driven an increase in global emission factor over the past century, which accounts for 18% of the anthropogenic soil flux in 2020. Predicted increases in fertilisation in emerging economies will accelerate NO-driven climate warming in coming decades, unless targeted mitigation measures are introduced.
人为氮素输入导致了重大的环境负面影响，包括重要温室气体一氧化二氮的排放。尽管它们很重要，但全球变化驱动的陆地氮损失途径的转变具有高度不确定性。在这里，我们提出了一个耦合的土壤-大气同位素模型（IsoTONE），以量化 1850 年至 2020 年期间陆地氮损失和一氧化二氮排放因子。我们发现，大气沉积导致的氮输入占 2020 年土壤人为一氧化二氮排放的 51%。2020 年，全球平均有效一氧化二氮排放因子（以氮输入为权重）为 4.3±0.3%，远高于以表面积为权重的平均值（1.1±0.1%）。过去一个世纪，气候变化和施肥氮输入的空间再分配推动了全球排放因子的增加，这占 2020 年人为土壤通量的 18%。新兴经济体中施肥的预测增长将加速未来几十年由一氧化二氮驱动的气候变暖，除非采取有针对性的缓解措施。
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