Short- and long-term effects of COVID-19 on bicycle sharing usage.

Using panel regression methods, this paper investigates how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted bicycle sharing system (BSS) ridership in Budapest. In particular, the paper aims to separate the effects of mobility and government restrictions on BSS ridership and analyse whether long-term positive effects are observable in this city. Results indicate that both mobility and government stringency measures significantly and positively affected BSS usage, particularly in residential areas and close to public parks. However, after the first wave of the pandemic passed and government measures were partially lifted, BSS ridership declined in line with the elimination of the restrictions. New users often churned after their first trial, and usage frequency dropped to lower levels than before the pandemic. This indicates that BSS was a valuable transportation mode during a pandemic, but a permanent increase in usage was not observed in Budapest despite a considerable price decrease in bicycle fares. The unsatisfactory experiences with this BSS, primarily due to heavy bike frames and solid rubber tires may be the cause of this. Our results prove the benefits of BSS in mitigating a pandemic but call the attention to the need to improve particular system characteristics that may undermine long-term ridership. These characteristics can be different for every BSS; hence, local market research is required. This limits the generalizability of the results.