Amheka Adrianus, Nguyen Hoa Thi, Yu Krista Danielle, Noach Robert Mesakh, Andiappan Viknesh, Dacanay Vincent Joseph, Aviso Kathleen
Department of Mechanical Engineering, State Polytechnic of Kupang, Kupang City, Indonesia.
Division of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan.
Carbon Balance Manag. 2022 Sep 7;17(1):13. doi: 10.1186/s13021-022-00213-x.
Economic growth is dependent on economic activity, which often translates to higher levels of carbon emissions. With the emergence of technologies that promote sustainable production, governments are working towards achieving their target economic growth while minimizing environmental emissions to meet their commitments to the international community. The IPCC reports that economic activities associated with electricity and heat production contributed most to GHG emissions and it led to the steady increase in global average temperatures. Currently, more than 90% of the total GHG emissions of the ASEAN region is attributable to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. These regions are expected to be greatly affected with climate change. This work analyzes how ASEAN nations can achieve carbon reduction targets while aspiring for economic growth rates in consideration of interdependencies between nations. We thus develop a multi-regional input-output model which can either minimize collective or individual carbon emissions. A high-level eight-sector economy is used for analyzing different economic strategies.
This model shows that minimizing collective carbon emissions can still yield economic growth. Countries can focus on developing sectors that have potentials for growth and lower carbon intensity as new technologies become available. In the case study examined, results indicate that the services sector, agriculture, and food manufacturing sector have higher potential for economic growth under carbon reduction emission constraints. In addition, the simultaneous implementation of multiple carbon emission reduction strategies provides the largest reduction in regional carbon emissions.
This model provides a more holistic view of how the generation of carbon emissions are influenced by the interdependence of nations. The emissions reduction achieved by each country varied depending on the state of technology and the level of economic development in the different regions. Though the presented case focused on the ASEAN region, the model framework can be used for the analysis of other multi-regional systems at various levels of resolution if data is available. Insights obtained from the model results can be used to help nations identify more appropriate and achievable carbon reduction targets and to develop coordinated and more customized policies to target priority sectors in a country. This model is currently limited by the assumption of fixed technical coefficients in the exchange and interdependence of different regions. Future work can investigate modelling flexible multi-regional trade where regions have the option of substituting goods and products in its import or export structure. Other strategies for reducing carbon emission intensity can also be explored, such as modelling transport mode choices, or establishing sectors for waste management. Hybrid models which integrate the multi-regional input-output linear program model with data envelopment analysis can also be developed.
经济增长依赖于经济活动，而经济活动往往会转化为更高水平的碳排放。随着促进可持续生产的技术出现，各国政府正在努力实现其目标经济增长，同时将环境排放降至最低，以履行对国际社会的承诺。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）报告称，与电力和热力生产相关的经济活动对温室气体排放的贡献最大，这导致全球平均气温稳步上升。目前，东盟地区温室气体排放总量的90%以上归因于印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国和越南。预计这些地区将受到气候变化的严重影响。这项工作分析了东盟国家在考虑国家间相互依存关系的情况下，如何在追求经济增长率的同时实现碳减排目标。因此，我们开发了一个多区域投入产出模型，该模型既可以使集体碳排放最小化，也可以使个体碳排放最小化。一个高层次的八部门经济模型被用于分析不同的经济策略。
该模型表明，使集体碳排放最小化仍能实现经济增长。随着新技术的出现，各国可以专注于发展具有增长潜力和低碳强度的部门。在所研究的案例中，结果表明，在碳排放约束下，服务业、农业和食品制造业具有更高的经济增长潜力。此外，同时实施多种碳减排策略可使区域碳排放量最大程度减少。
该模型提供了一个更全面的视角，展示了国家间相互依存关系如何影响碳排放的产生。每个国家实现的减排量因不同地区的技术水平和经济发展程度而异。尽管所呈现的案例聚焦于东盟地区，但如果有数据，该模型框架可用于分析其他不同分辨率水平的多区域系统。从模型结果中获得的见解可用于帮助各国确定更合适且可实现的碳减排目标，并制定协调一致且更具针对性的政策，以针对一个国家的优先部门。该模型目前受到不同区域间交换和相互依存关系中固定技术系数这一假设的限制。未来的工作可以研究对灵活的多区域贸易进行建模，即各地区可以选择在其进出口结构中替代商品和产品。还可以探索其他降低碳排放强度的策略，比如对交通方式选择进行建模，或设立废物管理部门。也可以开发将多区域投入产出线性规划模型与数据包络分析相结合的混合模型。
