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衰弱指数预测价值与传统脓毒症标志物在预测三级医院老年患者死亡率中的比较。

Predictive Value of Frailty Index in Comparison to Traditional Markers of Sepsis in Predicting Mortality among Elderly Admitted in Tertiary Care Hospital.

机构信息

Junior Resident.

Additional Professor; Corresponding Author.

出版信息

J Assoc Physicians India. 2022 Sep;70(9):11-12. doi: 10.5005/japi-11001-0094.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

The frailty index's potential as a prognostic marker of sepsis is so far been untapped. Here we studied the predictive value of frailty index in the elderly with sepsis.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary level hospital in North India. The duration of the study was 18 months starting from January 2020 to July 2021. The frailty index was calculated along with traditional markers of sepsis such as sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) within 24 hours of admission in elderly patients suspected to have sepsis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of frailty index, SOFA, qSOFA, and SIRS was compared for in-hospital and 3-month mortality.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference between the performance of the frailty index and SOFA (DeLong's test p = 0.242) in predicting in-hospital mortality, but there was a statistical difference between the AUROC of SOFA score (AUC = 0.548) and frailty in predicting 3-month mortality (DeLong's test p ≤0.001).

CONCLUSION

The frailty index had greater sensitivity and negative predictive value among the other scores in predicting in-hospital mortality, whereas SOFA had higher specificity in predicting in-hospital mortality. The frailty index was superior to SOFA and the other prognostic markers of sepsis in predicting 3-month mortality.

摘要

简介

目前尚未挖掘出衰弱指数作为脓毒症预后标志物的潜力。在此,我们研究了衰弱指数在老年脓毒症患者中的预测价值。

方法

这是一项在印度北部一家三级医院进行的前瞻性队列研究。该研究从 2020 年 1 月至 2021 年 7 月持续了 18 个月。在怀疑患有脓毒症的老年患者入院后 24 小时内,计算衰弱指数以及脓毒症的传统标志物,如序贯器官衰竭评估(SOFA)、快速序贯器官衰竭评估(qSOFA)和全身炎症反应综合征(SIRS)。比较衰弱指数、SOFA、qSOFA 和 SIRS 的受试者工作特征曲线(AUROC)在院内和 3 个月死亡率的预测价值。

结果

衰弱指数和 SOFA(DeLong 检验,p = 0.242)在预测院内死亡率方面的表现无显著差异,但 SOFA 评分的 AUROC(AUC = 0.548)和衰弱指数预测 3 个月死亡率的 AUROC(DeLong 检验,p ≤0.001)之间存在统计学差异。

结论

在预测院内死亡率方面,与其他评分相比,衰弱指数在预测院内死亡率方面具有更高的敏感性和阴性预测值,而 SOFA 在预测院内死亡率方面具有更高的特异性。与 SOFA 和其他脓毒症预后标志物相比,衰弱指数在预测 3 个月死亡率方面更具优势。

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