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火灾系统安全风险认知模型与重大公共安全风险评估。

Fire system safety risk cognition model and evaluation of major public safety risks.

机构信息

School of Architectural Engineering, Huanggang Normal University, Huanggang, China.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2022 Sep 2;10:987277. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.987277. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

Along with the expansion of city scale, and the increase in the density of population and buildings, the occurrence of a major public fire safety incident in cities will lead to a serious threat to the overall public safety and the sustainable economic and social development of the relevant region. A simple and practical safety risk assessment method of fire prevention in gas stations is of great value for disaster prevention and application in key industries. The constituent elements of a gas station fire prevention safety system are complex, and include equipment, materials, environment, operation, and other factors. This element of information has randomness and temporal dynamics. To promote the transformation of the safety supervision mechanism of gas stations, realize the dual objectives of risk classification and risk dynamic management, and control the gas stations' safety systems the gas stations safety systems are the objectives of our paper. By taking the "fire" risk point of fire prevention in gas stations' system as the research object, this paper puts forward the cognitive path of fire prevention in gas stations' safety system for risk disasters, and explains the coordination between characteristics of inherent, initial, and real risks and the structure of the risk system's attributes. A realistic risk assessment model of fire risk with inherent and dynamic risks is established. An example was introduced to apply the real risk model, and the results were consistent with the actual prediction results, thereby showing the effectiveness and practicability of this method. This risk assessment method can provide a scientific basis for the prevention of fires and control of the fire prevention safety system, showing the changes in risk levels in different stages, and providing risk warning for project managers in taking prompt corresponding risk control countermeasures and improving the efficiency of risk management.

摘要

随着城市规模的扩大、人口和建筑物密度的增加,城市重大公共消防安全事件的发生,将对整体公共安全和相关区域的可持续经济社会发展造成严重威胁。一种简单实用的加油站防火安全风险评估方法对于灾害预防和关键行业的应用具有重要价值。加油站防火安全系统的构成要素复杂,包括设备、材料、环境、操作等因素。这些信息要素具有随机性和时间动态性。为了推动加油站安全监管机制的转变,实现风险分类和风险动态管理的双重目标,并控制加油站的安全系统,本文以加油站系统防火“火灾”风险点为研究对象,提出了加油站安全系统防火风险灾害认知路径,并解释了固有风险、初始风险和实际风险的特征与风险系统属性结构之间的协调性。建立了具有固有风险和动态风险的火灾风险现实风险评估模型。引入了一个实例来应用实际风险模型,结果与实际预测结果一致,从而证明了该方法的有效性和实用性。这种风险评估方法可以为火灾预防和防火安全系统的控制提供科学依据,展示不同阶段风险水平的变化,并为项目经理提供风险预警,以便及时采取相应的风险控制对策,提高风险管理效率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dad/9478185/7405ec967296/fpubh-10-987277-g0001.jpg

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