基于监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库对转移性卵巢癌患者的2年死亡率进行预测。
Prediction for 2-year mortality of metastatic ovarian cancer patients based on surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database.
作者信息
Wang Yongxin, Shan Xue, Dong He, Li Man, Yue Ying
机构信息
Department of Gynecologic Oncology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China.
Department of Cardiac Surgery, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China.
出版信息
Front Surg. 2022 Sep 15;9:974536. doi: 10.3389/fsurg.2022.974536. eCollection 2022.
AIM
To establish prediction models for 2-year overall survival of ovarian cancer patients with metastasis.
METHODS
In total, 4,929 participants from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were randomly divided into the training set ( = 3,451) and the testing set ( = 1,478). Univariate and multivariable regression were conducted in the training set to identify predictors for 2-year overall survival of metastatic ovarian cancer patients. The C-index was calculated for assessing the performance of the models. The nomogram for the model was plotted. The prediction value of the model was validated in the testing set. Subgroup analysis were performed concerning surgery and chemotherapy status of patients and the metastatic site of ovarian cancer in the testing set. The calibration curves were plotted and the decision curve analysis (DCA) were conducted.
RESULTS
At the end of follow-up, 2,587 patients were survived and 2,342 patients were dead within 2 years. The 2-year survival rate was 52.5%. The prediction models were constructed based on predictors including age, radiation, surgery and chemotherapy, CA125, and bone, liver, and lung metastasis. The prediction model for 2-year overall survival of ovarian cancer patients with metastasis showed good predictive ability with the C-index of the model of 0.719 (95% CI: 0.706-0.731) in the training set and 0.718 (95% CI: 0.698-0.737) in the testing set. In terms of patients with bone metastasis, the C-index was 0.740 (95% CI: 0.652-0.828) for predicting the 2-year overall survival of ovarian cancer patients. The C-index was 0.836 (95% CI: 0.694-0.979) in patients with brain metastasis, 0.755 (95% CI: 0.721-0.788) in patients with liver metastasis and 0.725 (95% CI: 0.686-0.764) in those with lung metastasis for predicting the 2-year overall survival of ovarian cancer patients.
CONCLUSION
The models showed good predictive performance for 2-year overall survival of metastatic ovarian cancer patients.
目的
建立卵巢癌转移患者2年总生存的预测模型。
方法
总共将来自监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库的4929名参与者随机分为训练集（n = 3451）和测试集（n = 1478）。在训练集中进行单因素和多因素回归，以确定转移性卵巢癌患者2年总生存的预测因素。计算C指数以评估模型的性能。绘制模型的列线图。在测试集中验证模型的预测值。在测试集中对患者的手术和化疗状态以及卵巢癌的转移部位进行亚组分析。绘制校准曲线并进行决策曲线分析（DCA）。
结果
随访结束时，2587例患者存活，2342例患者在2年内死亡。2年生存率为52.5%。基于年龄、放疗、手术和化疗、CA125以及骨、肝和肺转移等预测因素构建预测模型。卵巢癌转移患者2年总生存的预测模型显示出良好的预测能力，训练集中模型的C指数为0.719（95%CI：0.706 - 0.731），测试集中为0.718（95%CI：0.698 - 0.737）。对于骨转移患者，预测卵巢癌患者2年总生存的C指数为0.740（95%CI：0.652 - 0.828）。脑转移患者的C指数为0.836（95%CI：0.694 - 0.979），肝转移患者为0.755（95%CI：0.721 - 0.788），肺转移患者为0.725（95%CI：0.686 - 0.764），用于预测卵巢癌患者2年总生存。
结论
这些模型对转移性卵巢癌患者的2年总生存显示出良好的预测性能。
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