Enterococcus exceedances related to environmental variability at New Jersey ocean beaches.

Microbial pollution at ocean beaches is a global public health problem that can be exacerbated by excessive rainfall, particularly at beaches adjacent to urban areas. Rain is acknowledged as a predictive factor of Enterococcus levels at NJ beaches, but to date no study has explicitly examined the link. Here, five beaches (156 observations) in Monmouth County, NJ, with storm drain outflows present were sampled for Enterococcus and water quality during dry and wet periods. Hypotheses included (1) beaches differ in Enterococcus levels, (2) Enterococcus is present year-round, and (3) Enterococcus exceedances could be modeled based on environmental parameters. Beaches showed significantly different median Enterococcus levels, with site SEA2 (Neptune Blvd. in Deal, NJ) lower than others and site SEA4 (South Bath Ave. in Long Branch, NJ) higher than the other sites. Elevated Enterococcus levels were detected at water temperatures from 6.5 to 22.2 °C. Multiple linear regression models identified rainfall (+), water temperature (+), and water level (-) as related to Enterococcus concentrations levels at these beaches. For the purpose of simulating the efficacy of different monitoring strategies, a hindcast model of Enterococcus abundance based on historic rainfall, water temperature, and water level data was produced. Results indicated that once-per-week sampling detected ~14% (e.g., 1/7) exceedance events, while sampling during summer alone detected ~ 50% of annual exceedance events. Models of Enterococcus exceedance based on readily available environmental time series have the potential to supplement and improve Enterococcus monitoring at NJ beaches.