Low stress hyperglycemia ratio predicts worse prognosis in diabetic acute heart failure patients.

INTRODUCTION

Acute blood glucose but not glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) predicts poor outcome in acute heart failure (HF). The stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) has been proposed as a prognostic predictor in various clinical settings.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the prognostic implications of the SHR in acute HF patients with and without diabetes.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of an acute HF registry conducted between 2009 and 2010. Estimated average glucose (eAG) was calculated as (28.7×HbA1c)-46.7 and SHR as acute blood glucose divided by eAG. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Follow-up was three months. Patients were grouped by SHR tertiles (≤0.88, 0.89-1.16, and >1.16). Cox regression analysis was used to test the association of SHR (cut-off 0.88) with all-cause mortality. Analysis was stratified according to the presence of diabetes. Multivariate models were built accounting for acute blood glucose and for eAG (models 1 and 2, respectively).

RESULTS

We studied 599 patients, mean age 76±12 years, of whom 62.1% had reduced ejection fraction and 50.9% had diabetes. Median acute blood glucose, eAG and SHR were 136 (107-182) mg/dl, 131 (117-151) mg/dl, and 1.02 (0.20-3.34), respectively. During follow-up 102 (17.0%) died. In patients with diabetes, those in the lowest SHR tertile had a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.24 (95% CI: 1.05-5.22) (model 1) and 2.34 (1.25-4.38) (model 2). In patients without diabetes, the HR of three-month death in the lowest SHR tertile was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.36-1.39) and 1.02 (0.58-1.81). Significant interaction was observed between diabetes and SHR.

CONCLUSIONS

In HF patients with diabetes, a SHR ≤0.88 was associated with a more than twofold higher three-month mortality risk. No such association was found in non-diabetic patients. The presence of diabetes influences the association of the SHR with mortality.