MacroBiodiversity Lab, School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, 19 Chlorine Gardens, Belfast, BT9 5DL, UK.
Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, Praha-Suchdol, 165 00, Czech Republic.
Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2023 Oct;98(5):1732-1748. doi: 10.1111/brv.12974. Epub 2023 May 15.
The global-scale decline of animal biodiversity ('defaunation') represents one of the most alarming consequences of human impacts on the planet. The quantification of this extinction crisis has traditionally relied on the use of IUCN Red List conservation categories assigned to each assessed species. This approach reveals that a quarter of the world's animal species are currently threatened with extinction, and ~1% have been declared extinct. However, extinctions are preceded by progressive population declines through time that leave demographic 'footprints' that can alert us about the trajectories of species towards extinction. Therefore, an exclusive focus on IUCN conservation categories, without consideration of dynamic population trends, may underestimate the true extent of the processes of ongoing extinctions across nature. In fact, emerging evidence (e.g. the Living Planet Report), reveals a widespread tendency for sustained demographic declines (an average 69% decline in population abundances) of species globally. Yet, animal species are not only declining. Many species worldwide exhibit stable populations, while others are even thriving. Here, using population trend data for >71,000 animal species spanning all five groups of vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes) and insects, we provide a comprehensive global-scale assessment of the diversity of population trends across species undergoing not only declines, but also population stability and increases. We show a widespread global erosion of species, with 48% undergoing declines, while 49% and 3% of species currently remain stable or are increasing, respectively. Geographically, we reveal an intriguing pattern similar to that of threatened species, whereby declines tend to concentrate around tropical regions, whereas stability and increases show a tendency to expand towards temperate climates. Importantly, we find that for species currently classed by the IUCN Red List as 'non-threatened', 33% are declining. Critically, in contrast with previous mass extinction events, our assessment shows that the Anthropocene extinction crisis is undergoing a rapid biodiversity imbalance, with levels of declines (a symptom of extinction) greatly exceeding levels of increases (a symptom of ecological expansion and potentially of evolution) for all groups. Our study contributes a further signal indicating that global biodiversity is entering a mass extinction, with ecosystem heterogeneity and functioning, biodiversity persistence, and human well-being under increasing threat.
动物生物多样性的全球范围减少(“物种灭绝”)是人类对地球影响的最令人震惊的后果之一。这种灭绝危机的量化传统上依赖于对每个评估物种分配的 IUCN 红色名录保护类别。这种方法表明,世界上四分之一的动物物种目前面临灭绝的威胁,约 1%已被宣布灭绝。然而,灭绝之前是随着时间的推移而逐渐减少的种群数量,这些种群数量的减少留下了人口“足迹”,可以提醒我们物种灭绝的轨迹。因此,如果只关注 IUCN 保护类别,而不考虑动态的种群趋势,可能会低估自然中正在发生的灭绝过程的真实程度。事实上,新出现的证据(例如,《生命星球报告》)表明,全球范围内物种的持续人口减少(种群数量平均减少 69%)呈普遍趋势。然而,动物物种不仅在减少。世界上许多物种的种群稳定,而其他物种甚至在增加。在这里,我们使用了超过 71,000 种动物物种的种群趋势数据,涵盖了所有五个脊椎动物群体(哺乳动物、鸟类、爬行动物、两栖动物和鱼类)和昆虫,对经历种群减少、种群稳定和增加的物种的多样性进行了全面的全球评估。我们发现物种的广泛全球侵蚀,48%的物种在减少,而 49%和 3%的物种目前保持稳定或增加。从地理上看,我们揭示了一个有趣的模式,类似于受威胁物种的模式,即下降趋势集中在热带地区,而稳定和增加趋势则倾向于向温带气候扩展。重要的是,我们发现对于 IUCN 红色名录中被归类为“非受威胁”的物种,有 33%正在减少。至关重要的是,与以前的大规模灭绝事件相比,我们的评估表明,人类世灭绝危机正在经历生物多样性的快速失衡,所有群体的下降水平(灭绝的症状)大大超过增加水平(生态扩张和可能进化的症状)。我们的研究提供了另一个信号,表明全球生物多样性正在进入大规模灭绝,生态系统的异质性和功能、生物多样性的持久性以及人类的福祉都受到越来越大的威胁。