Tosunoğlu Nuray, Abacı Hilal, Ateş Gizem, Saygılı Akkaya Neslihan
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University, Ankara, Turkey.
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Çankırı Karatekin University, Çankırı, Turkey.
Financ Innov. 2023;9(1):88. doi: 10.1186/s40854-023-00499-x. Epub 2023 May 9.
Anomalies, which are incompatible with the efficient market hypothesis and mean a deviation from normality, have attracted the attention of both financial investors and researchers. A salient research topic is the existence of anomalies in cryptocurrencies, which have a different financial structure from that of traditional financial markets. This study expands the literature by focusing on artificial neural networks to compare different currencies of the cryptocurrency market, which is hard to predict. It aims to investigate the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly in cryptocurrencies with feedforward artificial neural networks as an alternative to traditional methods. An artificial neural network is an effective approach that can model the nonlinear and complex behavior of cryptocurrencies. On October 6, 2021, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Cardano (ADA), which are the top three cryptocurrencies in terms of market value, were selected for this study. The data for the analysis, consisting of the daily closing prices for BTC, ETH, and ADA, were obtained from the Coinmarket.com website from January 1, 2018 to May 31, 2022. The effectiveness of the established models was tested with mean squared error, root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and Theil's U1, and was used for out-of-sample. The Diebold-Mariano test was used to statistically reveal the difference between the out-of-sample prediction accuracies of the models. When the models created with feedforward artificial neural networks are examined, the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is established for BTC, but no day-of-the-week anomaly for ETH and ADA was found.
异常现象与有效市场假说相悖,意味着偏离常态,这吸引了金融投资者和研究人员的关注。一个显著的研究主题是加密货币中异常现象的存在,加密货币的金融结构与传统金融市场不同。本研究通过聚焦人工神经网络来比较难以预测的加密货币市场的不同货币,从而扩展了相关文献。其目的是以前馈人工神经网络作为传统方法的替代方案,研究加密货币中一周中的某天异常现象的存在情况。人工神经网络是一种有效的方法,能够对加密货币的非线性和复杂行为进行建模。2021年10月6日,本研究选取了市值排名前三的加密货币比特币(BTC)、以太坊(ETH)和卡尔达诺(ADA)。分析数据由BTC、ETH和ADA的每日收盘价组成,从2018年1月1日至2022年5月31日从Coinmarket.com网站获取。用均方误差、均方根误差、平均绝对误差和泰尔U1检验所建立模型的有效性,并用于样本外检验。迪博尔德 - 马里亚诺检验用于从统计学上揭示模型样本外预测准确性之间的差异。当考察用前馈人工神经网络创建的模型时,发现BTC存在一周中的某天异常现象,但未发现ETH和ADA存在一周中的某天异常现象。