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中国老年人的消费与贫困:2011 - 2020年

Consumption and poverty of older Chinese: 2011-2020.

作者信息

Gong Jinquan, Wang Gewei, Wang Yafeng, Zhao Yaohui

机构信息

Peking University, China.

出版信息

J Econ Ageing. 2022 Oct;23. doi: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2022.100410. Epub 2022 Sep 8.

Abstract

Based on five waves of CHARLS data from 2011 to 2020 with expenditure imputations, we estimate living standards and poverty rates among older Chinese and study factors associated with consumption and poverty. Our results indicate that in the 2010s, China's poverty profile among older people was no longer characterized by regional concentration, such as the case in the first decades following China's economic reforms. Rather, old-age poverty is dispersed and varies mainly by demographics. Rural-urban differences, low education, and older age are the main factors associated with poverty. In the past decade, people of these characteristics enjoyed substantially more reductions in poverty, but they remain chief predictors. After controlling for demographics, consumption grew by 72.9 %, and the poverty rate declined by 59.2 % from 2011 to 2020, revealing remarkable progress. By interacting marital status with sex and urban/rural residence, we identify gaps in older people's economic support and find that the never-married urban people, widowed and divorced women, especially divorced rural women are the most at risk for poverty. Our research implies that future poverty alleviation policies should have more precise targeting.

摘要

基于2011年至2020年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)的五轮数据以及支出估算,我们估算了中国老年人的生活水平和贫困率,并研究了与消费和贫困相关的因素。我们的研究结果表明,在21世纪10年代,中国老年人的贫困状况不再像经济改革后的头几十年那样呈现出区域集中的特征。相反,老年贫困是分散的,主要因人口特征而异。城乡差异、低教育水平和高龄是与贫困相关的主要因素。在过去十年中,具有这些特征的人群在贫困减少方面取得了显著成效,但它们仍然是主要的预测因素。在控制了人口特征后,2011年至2020年期间消费增长了72.9%,贫困率下降了59.2%,这显示出了显著的进步。通过将婚姻状况与性别和城乡居住情况进行交叉分析,我们发现了老年人在经济支持方面的差距,并发现从未结婚的城市居民、丧偶和离异女性,尤其是离异农村女性面临贫困的风险最大。我们的研究表明,未来的扶贫政策应该更精准地瞄准目标人群。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bde6/10205791/69abc699dbaf/nihms-1894284-f0001.jpg

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