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乙型肝炎病毒传播动力学的有效干预策略的数学模型分析。

Mathematical model analysis of effective intervention strategies on transmission dynamics of hepatitis B virus.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia.

Department of Mathematics, Bahirdar University, Bahirdar, Ethiopia.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 May 30;13(1):8737. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-35815-z.

Abstract

Hepatitis B is one of the world's most common and severe infectious diseases. Worldwide, over 350 million people are currently estimated to be persistent carriers of the hepatitis B virus (HBV), with the death of 1 million people from the chronic stage of HBV infection. In this work, developed a nonlinear mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of HBV. We constructed the mathematical model by considering vaccination, treatment, migration, and screening effects. We calculated both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points for our model. Using the next-generation matrix, an effective reproduction number for the model is calculated. We also proved the asymptotic stability of both local and global asymptotically stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. By calculating the sensitivity indices, the most sensitive parameters that are most likely to affect the disease's endemicity are identified. From the findings of this work, we recommend vaccination of the entire population and screening all the exposed and migrants. Additionally, early treatment of both the exposed class after screening and the chronically infected class is vital to decreasing the transmission of HBV in the community.

摘要

乙型肝炎是世界上最常见和最严重的传染病之一。据估计,目前全世界有超过 3.5 亿人是乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)的持续携带者,其中有 100 万人死于 HBV 感染的慢性阶段。在这项工作中,我们开发了一个用于乙型肝炎传播动力学的非线性数学模型。我们通过考虑疫苗接种、治疗、迁移和筛查效果来构建数学模型。我们计算了我们模型的无病和地方病平衡点。使用下一代矩阵,计算了模型的有效繁殖数。我们还证明了无病和地方病平衡点的局部和全局渐近稳定性。通过计算灵敏度指数,确定了最有可能影响疾病地方性的最敏感参数。根据这项工作的结果,我们建议对所有人进行疫苗接种,并对所有暴露者和移民进行筛查。此外,对筛查后的暴露者和慢性感染者进行早期治疗,对于降低社区中 HBV 的传播至关重要。

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