How does market-oriented allocation of industrial land affect carbon emissions? Evidence from China.

Industrial land serves as the fundamental basis for urban economic development and significantly contributes to carbon emissions. Effective market mechanisms are crucial for reducing carbon emissions. As such, investigating the impact of market-oriented allocation of industrial land (MAIL) on carbon emissions and its pathways is of substantial practical importance for global low-carbon development. This study constructs a theoretical framework examining the influence of MAIL on carbon emissions, focusing on 285 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2020. The spatial econometric model is employed to analyze the impact of MAIL on carbon emissions. The results show that: first, from a national perspective, MAIL not only reduces carbon emissions within a region but also in neighboring regions. Higher MAIL leads to more effective carbon emission reductions, which are persistent and hysteresis in time. Path analysis demonstrates that MAIL reduces carbon emissions by promoting industrial upgrading and technological innovation. Second, there are differences in the timeliness of carbon emission reduction effects in cities of different scales and regions. For cities of different scales, the carbon reduction effect of MAIL is more stable in large and medium cities compared to megacities and small cities, but in the short term, MAIL will hinder the industrial upgrading of megacities and thus is not conducive to carbon reduction. For different regional cities, the carbon reduction effect of MAIL is more stable in other regions except northeast region, and in the short term, MAIL will inhibit technological innovation in northeast region, which is not conducive to carbon reduction. Consequently, it is essential not only to design a top-level reform plan for MAIL in China but also to establish differentiated reform policies for MAIL, tailored to the unique characteristics of cities with different scales and regions, to effectively reduce carbon emissions.