Construction and validation of a SEER-based prognostic nomogram for young and middle-aged males patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common digestive tumor, and we aimed to develop and validate nomogram models, predicting the overall survival (OS) of young and middle-aged male patients with HCC.

METHODS

We extracted eligible data from relevant patients between 2000 and 2017 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. In addition, randomly divided all patients into two groups (training and validation = 7:3). The nomogram was established using effective risk factors based on univariate and multivariate analysis. The area under the time-dependent curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the effective performance of the nomogram. The risk stratifications of the nomogram and the AJCC criteria-based tumor stage were compared.

RESULTS

11 variables were selected by univariate and multivariate analysis to establish the nomogram of HCC. The AUC values of 3, 4, and 5 years of the time-ROC curve are 0.858, 0.862 and 0.859 for the training cohort, and 0.858, 0.877 and 0.869 for the validation cohort, respectively, indicating that the nomogram has a good ability of discrimination. The calibration plots showed favorable consistency between the prediction of the nomogram and actual observations in both the training and validation cohorts. In addition, the decision curve DCA showed that the nomogram was clinically useful and had better discriminative ability to recognize patients at high risk than the AJCC criteria-based tumor stage.

CONCLUSION

Prognostic nomogram of young and middle-aged male patients with HCC was developed and validated to help clinicians evaluate the prognosis of patients.