Wang Qiang, Jiang Feng, Li Rongrong, Wang Xiaowei
School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, 266580, China.
School of Economics and Management, Tiangong University, Tianjin, 300387, China.
Sustain Prod Consum. 2022 Mar;30:851-869. doi: 10.1016/j.spc.2022.01.011. Epub 2022 Jan 19.
Past studies related to embodied pollutant accounting reported that free trade has increased the environmental pollution of developing economies, because the developed countries "outsource" their pollutants to developing nations. The COVID-19 pandemic has stimulated the rise of the most serious protectionism after World War II. This study is aimed to discuss whether protectionism improve the environment in developing countries by developing a comprehensive evaluation model, which integrates multi-regional input-output (MRIO), data envelopment analysis (DEA), and scenario analysis. We revealed the role of protectionism from two perspectives: the single impact on pollutant emissions and the comprehensive impact on environmental efficiency. Specifically, the capital inputs, labor inputs, energy consumption, economic output, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides emissions related to global trade activities were simulated based on the MRIO. And then, sector-level trade environmental efficiency was computed by intergrading the MRIO and DEA using a non-radial directional distance function. Finally, the environmental efficiency of both developing and developed countries under two scenarios with and without trade were estimated. The results confirmed that trade has increased the CO, SO and NO emissions of developing economies by 12.9%, 9.8% and 12.3%, and has reduced that of developed economies by 6.0%, 29.4% and 21.2%, respectively. However, the results also uncovered that the environmental efficiency of developing and developed economies was dropped by 3% and 5%, respectively, under no-trade scenario. We contend that protectionism is not conducive to the sustainable development of developing countries because it lowers their environmental efficiency, although it may reduce their territorial pollutant emissions. For developed countries, the single impact of protectionism on pollutant emission reduction and the comprehensive impact on environmental efficiency are both negative.
以往关于体现式污染物核算的研究报告称，自由贸易加剧了发展中经济体的环境污染，因为发达国家将其污染物“外包”给了发展中国家。新冠疫情激发了二战后最严重的保护主义的兴起。本研究旨在通过构建一个综合评估模型来探讨保护主义是否能改善发展中国家的环境，该模型整合了多区域投入产出（MRIO）、数据包络分析（DEA）和情景分析。我们从两个角度揭示了保护主义的作用：对污染物排放的单一影响和对环境效率的综合影响。具体而言，基于多区域投入产出模型模拟了与全球贸易活动相关的资本投入、劳动力投入、能源消耗、经济产出、二氧化碳、二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放。然后，使用非径向方向距离函数，通过整合多区域投入产出模型和数据包络分析计算部门层面的贸易环境效率。最后，估计了在有贸易和无贸易两种情景下发展中国家和发达国家的环境效率。结果证实，贸易使发展中经济体的一氧化碳、二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放量分别增加了12.9%、9.8%和12.3%，而使发达经济体的排放量分别减少了6.0%、29.4%和（此处原文有误，推测为21.2%）。然而，结果还表明，在无贸易情景下，发展中经济体和发达经济体的环境效率分别下降了3%和5%。我们认为，保护主义不利于发展中国家的可持续发展，因为它降低了它们的环境效率，尽管它可能会减少其境内的污染物排放。对于发达国家来说，保护主义对污染物减排的单一影响和对环境效率的综合影响都是负面的。
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