State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, Bejing, China.
Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2023 Jun 7;9:e45943. doi: 10.2196/45943.
Gout is a common and debilitating condition that is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite advances in medical treatment, the global burden of gout continues to increase, particularly in high-sociodemographic index (SDI) regions.
To address the aforementioned issue, we used age-period-cohort (APC) modeling to analyze global trends in gout incidence and prevalence from 1990 to 2019.
Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to assess all-age prevalence and age-standardized prevalence rates, as well as years lived with disability rates, for 204 countries and territories. APC effects were also examined in relation to gout prevalence. Future burden prediction was carried out using the Nordpred APC prediction of future incidence cases and the Bayesian APC model.
The global gout incidence has increased by 63.44% over the past 2 decades, with a corresponding increase of 51.12% in global years lived with disability. The sex ratio remained consistent at 3:1 (male to female), but the global gout incidence increased in both sexes over time. Notably, the prevalence and incidence of gout were the highest in high-SDI regions (95% uncertainty interval 14.19-20.62), with a growth rate of 94.3%. Gout prevalence increases steadily with age, and the prevalence increases rapidly in high-SDI quantiles for the period effect. Finally, the cohort effect showed that gout prevalence increases steadily, with the risk of morbidity increasing in younger birth cohorts. The prediction model suggests that the gout incidence rate will continue to increase globally.
Our study provides important insights into the global burden of gout and highlights the need for effective management and prophylaxis of this condition. The APC model used in our analysis provides a novel approach to understanding the complex trends in gout prevalence and incidence, and our findings can inform the development of targeted interventions to address this growing health issue.
痛风是一种常见且使人虚弱的疾病，与较高的发病率和死亡率显著相关。尽管医学治疗取得了进展，但痛风的全球负担仍在继续增加，特别是在高社会人口指数（SDI）地区。
为了解决上述问题，我们使用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型分析了 1990 年至 2019 年期间全球痛风发病率和患病率的趋势。
从 2019 年全球疾病负担研究中提取数据，评估了 204 个国家和地区的所有年龄患病率和年龄标准化患病率，以及残疾生存年率。还检查了 APC 效应对痛风患病率的影响。使用 Nordpred APC 预测未来发病病例和贝叶斯 APC 模型进行未来负担预测。
在过去的 20 年中，全球痛风发病率增加了 63.44%，全球残疾生存年数相应增加了 51.12%。性别比例保持在 3:1（男性与女性）不变，但随着时间的推移，全球痛风发病率在两性中均有所增加。值得注意的是，痛风的患病率和发病率在高 SDI 地区最高（95%置信区间 14.19-20.62），增长率为 94.3%。痛风患病率随年龄稳步增加，且时期效应对高 SDI 分位数的患病率增加迅速。最后，队列效应表明，痛风患病率稳步上升，年轻出生队列的发病风险增加。预测模型表明，全球痛风发病率将继续上升。
我们的研究提供了痛风全球负担的重要见解，并强调了有效管理和预防这种疾病的必要性。我们分析中使用的 APC 模型提供了一种新颖的方法来理解痛风患病率和发病率的复杂趋势，我们的研究结果可以为解决这一日益严重的健康问题提供有针对性的干预措施的制定提供信息。
