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2022 年夏季欧洲与热相关的死亡人数。

Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022.

机构信息

ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.

Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.

出版信息

Nat Med. 2023 Jul;29(7):1857-1866. doi: 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z. Epub 2023 Jul 10.

Abstract

Over 70,000 excess deaths occurred in Europe during the summer of 2003. The resulting societal awareness led to the design and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect at-risk populations. We aimed to quantify heat-related mortality burden during the summer of 2022, the hottest season on record in Europe. We analyzed the Eurostat mortality database, which includes 45,184,044 counts of death from 823 contiguous regions in 35 European countries, representing the whole population of over 543 million people. We estimated 61,672 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 37,643-86,807) heat-related deaths in Europe between 30 May and 4 September 2022. Italy (18,010 deaths; 95% CI = 13,793-22,225), Spain (11,324; 95% CI = 7,908-14,880) and Germany (8,173; 95% CI = 5,374-11,018) had the highest summer heat-related mortality numbers, while Italy (295 deaths per million, 95% CI = 226-364), Greece (280, 95% CI = 201-355), Spain (237, 95% CI = 166-312) and Portugal (211, 95% CI = 162-255) had the highest heat-related mortality rates. Relative to population, we estimated 56% more heat-related deaths in women than men, with higher rates in men aged 0-64 (+41%) and 65-79 (+14%) years, and in women aged 80+ years (+27%). Our results call for a reevaluation and strengthening of existing heat surveillance platforms, prevention plans and long-term adaptation strategies.

摘要

2003 年夏季,欧洲有超过 70000 人超额死亡。由此产生的社会意识促使人们设计和实施适应策略,以保护高危人群。我们旨在量化 2022 年夏季(欧洲有记录以来最热的季节)与热相关的死亡负担。我们分析了 Eurostat 死亡率数据库,该数据库包括来自 35 个欧洲国家的 823 个连续地区的 45184044 例死亡数据,代表了超过 5.43 亿人的全部人口。我们估计 2022 年 5 月 30 日至 9 月 4 日期间,欧洲有 61672 例(95%置信区间(CI)=37643-86807)与热相关的死亡。意大利(18010 例死亡;95%CI=13793-22225)、西班牙(11324 例;95%CI=7908-14880)和德国(8173 例;95%CI=5374-11018)的夏季与热相关的死亡人数最高,而意大利(每百万人 295 例死亡,95%CI=226-364)、希腊(280 例,95%CI=201-355)、西班牙(237 例,95%CI=166-312)和葡萄牙(211 例,95%CI=162-255)的与热相关的死亡率最高。相对于人口,我们估计女性与热相关的死亡人数比男性多 56%,其中 0-64 岁男性(+41%)和 65-79 岁男性(+14%)以及 80 岁以上女性(+27%)的死亡率更高。我们的研究结果呼吁重新评估和加强现有的热监测平台、预防计划和长期适应策略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0082/10353926/d9fd3a6b5d8c/41591_2023_2419_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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