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自我报告的风险偏好的心理驱动因素。

The psychological drivers of self-reported risk preference.

作者信息

Rolison Jonathan J

机构信息

Department of Psychology, University of Essex.

出版信息

J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2023 Oct;49(10):1635-1661. doi: 10.1037/xlm0001266. Epub 2023 Jul 13.

Abstract

Why are some people more willing than others to take risks? While behavioral tasks (e.g., monetary lotteries) are often regarded as a gold standard for capturing a person's risk preference, recent studies have found stated preferences (e.g., responses to hypothetical scenarios) to exhibit higher reliability, convergent validity, and test-retest stability. Yet, little is known about the psychological drivers of stated preferences. Central to the stated preference approach, the psychological risk-return model conceptualizes a person's propensity to engage in an activity or behavior as a tradeoff between their risk perceptions and expected benefits. To cast a light on the psychological drivers of risk preference within the psychological risk-return framework, in a series of studies participants reported how they evaluated the risks and benefits of activities and their propensity to engage. Individual differences in analytic and intuitive thinking dispositions were also measured. Some participants referred explicitly to risks and rewards of activities when deriving their risk propensity, which was associated with sensitivity to their risk perception and expected benefit ratings. Associations with thinking dispositions indicated that participants who considered risks and rewards were more disposed to analytic thinking. Participants' reports also revealed a broad repertoire of psychological drivers (e.g., intuition, imagination, and feeling) of their evaluations of activities. These were stable over time, associated with thinking dispositions, and influenced their risk preference. The findings provide support for the psychological risk-return model of risk preference. A multifaceted model of preference is urged by the findings to acknowledge the multiple co-occurring psychological drivers of risk preference. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

摘要

为什么有些人比其他人更愿意冒险?虽然行为任务(如货币彩票)通常被视为捕捉一个人的风险偏好的黄金标准,但最近的研究发现,陈述性偏好(如对假设情景的反应)表现出更高的可靠性、收敛效度和重测稳定性。然而,对于陈述性偏好的心理驱动因素却知之甚少。在陈述性偏好方法的核心,心理风险回报模型将一个人参与某项活动或行为的倾向概念化为他们的风险认知和预期收益之间的权衡。为了揭示心理风险回报框架内风险偏好的心理驱动因素,在一系列研究中,参与者报告了他们如何评估活动的风险和收益以及他们参与的倾向。还测量了分析性和直觉性思维倾向的个体差异。一些参与者在推导他们的风险倾向时明确提到了活动的风险和回报,这与他们对风险认知和预期收益评级的敏感性有关。与思维倾向的关联表明,考虑风险和回报的参与者更倾向于分析性思维。参与者的报告还揭示了他们对活动评估的广泛心理驱动因素(如直觉、想象力和感觉)。这些因素随时间稳定,与思维倾向相关,并影响他们的风险偏好。这些发现为风险偏好的心理风险回报模型提供了支持。研究结果促使人们建立一个多方面的偏好模型,以承认风险偏好中多个同时出现的心理驱动因素。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c)2023美国心理学会,保留所有权利)

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