Knowles J
Urol Clin North Am. 1986 Feb;13(1):17-37.
The development of software during the past 30 years has been just as dramatic in many respects as that of hardware. Whereas future developments in hardware technology can be expected to provide smaller, cheaper, and more powerful computers as has been the case during the past 25 years, future developments in software technology can be expected to play the equally important role of expanding the user base for computers, thus making it economically feasible to exploit new technologies on the hardware side. Although today's computer software offerings are very broad indeed in terms of the variety of tasks they perform, one can reasonably expect that entirely new uses will be found for computers, through the development of new types of software, in the future. By exploiting the huge memory capacities of today's newer computers, future software will be much easier to use and will be capable of carrying out several tasks simultaneously. It will also be much more forgiving, adapting itself automatically to the work style (and probably also to the mistakes) of the user. By incorporating at least a part of what constitutes the stock of knowledge in particular applications, so-called "expert systems," one may expect future software, particularly in areas such as financial and statistical analysis, to enable the computer to work more as a partner or colleague than as an unintelligent (albeit very fast) tool. Perhaps to an even greater extent in the future than has been true to date, the evolution of the computer as a useful tool will depend on software, rather than hardware, innovation. The hardware advances necessary to place hearing, speaking, seeing, and even thinking computers on everyone's desktop, each of which would be able to provide ready access to truly mind-boggling quantities of information, is at hand. Only the software really remains to be developed.
在过去30年里,软件的发展在许多方面与硬件的发展一样引人注目。鉴于硬件技术在未来的发展有望像过去25年那样提供更小、更便宜且功能更强大的计算机,软件技术在未来的发展有望发挥同样重要的作用,即扩大计算机的用户群体,从而使在硬件方面开发新技术在经济上可行。尽管如今计算机软件在其所执行任务的种类方面确实非常广泛,但人们可以合理地预期,通过开发新型软件,未来会发现计算机全新的用途。借助当今新型计算机的巨大存储容量,未来的软件将更易于使用,并且能够同时执行多项任务。它也将更加宽容,能自动适应用户的工作方式(可能还包括用户的错误)。通过融入特定应用领域中构成知识储备的至少一部分内容,即所谓的“专家系统”,人们可以预期未来的软件,尤其是在金融和统计分析等领域,能使计算机更多地作为合作伙伴或同事发挥作用,而非仅仅是一个不具备智能(尽管速度很快)的工具。或许在未来,计算机作为一种有用工具的发展将比迄今为止更依赖软件创新,而非硬件创新。将具备听力、说话、视觉甚至思考能力的计算机放置在每个人的桌面上,让每个人都能随时获取数量惊人的信息,所需的硬件进步已近在咫尺。真正有待开发的唯有软件。