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登革热传播的复杂性:网络分析方法。

Complexity in the dengue spreading: A network analysis approach.

机构信息

Programa de Pos-Graduação em Modelagem Matemática e Computacional, Centro Federal de Educação Tecnológica de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Departamento de Física, Centro Federal de Educação Tecnológica de Minas Gerais- CEFET-MG, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 Aug 7;18(8):e0289690. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0289690. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

In an increasingly interconnected society, preventing epidemics has become a major challenge. Numerous infectious diseases spread between individuals by a vector, creating bipartite networks of infection with the characteristics of complex networks. In the case of dengue, a mosquito-borne disease, these infection networks include a vector-the Aedes aegypti mosquito-which has expanded its endemic area due to climate change. In this scenario, innovative approaches are essential to help public agents in the fight against the disease. Using an agent-based model, we investigated the network morphology of a dengue endemic region considering four different serotypes and a small population. The degree, betweenness, and closeness distributions are evaluated for the bipartite networks, considering the interactions up to the second order for each serotype. We observed scale-free features and heavy tails in the degree distribution and betweenness and quantified the decay of the degree distribution with a q-Gaussian fit function. The simulation results indicate that the spread of dengue is primarily driven by human-to-human and human-to-mosquito interaction, reinforcing the importance of controlling the vector to prevent episodes of epidemic outbreaks.

摘要

在一个日益相互关联的社会中,预防传染病已成为一项重大挑战。许多传染病通过媒介在人与人之间传播,形成了具有复杂网络特征的二分感染网络。在登革热这种蚊媒传染病的情况下,感染网络包括一种媒介——埃及伊蚊,由于气候变化,这种蚊子的流行地区已经扩大。在这种情况下,需要创新方法来帮助公共机构对抗这种疾病。我们使用基于代理的模型,考虑到四个不同的血清型和一个小的人群,研究了登革热流行地区的网络形态。我们评估了二分网络的度、中间性和接近度分布,考虑了每个血清型的二阶相互作用。我们观察到了度分布的无标度特征和重尾,并用 q-高斯拟合函数量化了度分布的衰减。模拟结果表明,登革热的传播主要由人与人之间以及人与蚊子之间的相互作用驱动,这强化了控制媒介以预防疫情爆发的重要性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/35c3/10406222/a06030cf80c3/pone.0289690.g001.jpg

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