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社会经济脆弱性和 COVID-19 变化的面貌:大流行头两年期间各国财富的分析。

Changing face of socio-economic vulnerability and COVID-19: An analysis of country wealth during the first two years of the pandemic.

机构信息

University Institute of Studies on Migrations, Comillas Pontifical University, Madrid, Spain.

Industrial Organization Department, ICAI-School of Engineering, Comillas Pontifical University, Madrid, Spain.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 Aug 28;18(8):e0290529. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290529. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

There are numerous academic studies on the relationship between population wealth and the incidence of COVID-19. However, research developed shows contradictory results on their relationship. In accordance with this question, this work pursues two objectives: on the one hand, to check whether wealth and disease incidence have a unidirectional and stable relationship. And on the other hand, to find out if the country's statistical production capacity is masking the real incidence of the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to achieve this objective, an ecological study has been designed at international level with the countries established as study units. The analytical strategy utilized involves the consecutive application of cross-sectional analysis, specifically employing multivariate linear regression daily throughout the first two years of the pandemic (from 03/14/2020 to 03/28/2022). The application of multiple cross-sectional analysis has shown that country wealth has a dynamic relationship with the incidence of COVID-19. Initially, it appears as a risk factor and, in the long term, as a protective element. In turn, statistical capacity appears as an explanatory variable for the number of published COVID-19 cases and deaths. Therefore, the inadequate statistical production capacity of low income countries may be masking the real incidence of the disease.

摘要

有大量关于人口财富与 COVID-19 发病率之间关系的学术研究。然而,研究结果显示它们之间的关系存在矛盾。根据这一问题,这项工作旨在实现两个目标:一方面,检验财富和疾病发病率之间是否存在单向且稳定的关系。另一方面,探究国家的统计生产能力是否掩盖了 COVID-19 大流行的真实发病率。为了实现这一目标,设计了一项国际性的生态研究,以国家为研究单位。所采用的分析策略涉及连续应用横断面分析,具体来说,在大流行的头两年(2020 年 3 月 14 日至 2022 年 3 月 28 日)期间,每天都要进行多元线性回归分析。多横断面分析的应用表明,国家财富与 COVID-19 的发病率之间存在动态关系。最初,它表现为一个风险因素,而从长期来看,则是一个保护因素。反过来,统计能力似乎是解释已发表的 COVID-19 病例和死亡人数的一个变量。因此,低收入国家统计生产能力不足可能掩盖了疾病的真实发病率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d75a/10461814/4ad826b7867c/pone.0290529.g001.jpg

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