Migration Aspirations and Adolescents' Ideal age at Union Formation in Western Mexico.

Migration systems shape social life, including the timing and sequencing of key demographic behaviors such as marriage, childbearing, and household formation. Existing research has linked migration and marriage in Mexico through various mechanisms but provides less guidance on whether aspirations for migration and marriage are closely linked. Given that union formation is itself distinct within migration contexts, this article focuses on adolescents' plans for marriage and the extent to which migration aspirations shape the desired timing of their own union formation by examining how four distinct measures of migration aspirations are related to adolescents' ideal ages at marriage in rural Jalisco, Mexico. Drawing from data on adolescents (n=1,403 adolescents) from the Family Migration and Early Life Outcomes Project (collected in 2017-2018), it uses ordinary least squares regression to analyze how various types of adolescent migration aspirations - including permanent migration, temporary labor migration, leaving the community at any point in time, and expected migration location - are associated with adolescents' ideal age at marriage. As the article shows, all migration aspirations are associated with higher ideal ages at marriage in unconditional models. However, these associations are not always robust to the inclusion of other factors, including adolescent aspirations in other life domains, particularly education. Results highlight the ongoing transition from a "culture of migration" to a "culture of education" in Mexico. Given that Mexican migration has changed dramatically in recent years, the findings presented here provide a window for understanding how these changes in migration are reflected in adolescent goals and likely subsequent behavior.