Nossal Institute for Global Health, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
School of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Int J Epidemiol. 2023 Dec 25;52(6):1735-1744. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyad121.
Australia provides a valuable international case study of life expectancy during the pandemic. In contrast to many other countries, it experienced relatively stringent restrictions and low COVID-19 mortality during 2020-21, followed by relaxation of these restrictions when high vaccination rates were achieved. This study measures Australia's life expectancy trends and the contributions of age group and causes of death, during the pandemic.
Trends in life expectancy at birth in Australia and its states and territories were measured from 2020 to 2022. The contributions of age group and cause of death to these trends were measured using decomposition methods. Life expectancy was compared with other high-income countries.
Australia's life expectancy fell by more than half a year in 2022, following a sharp increase in 2020 and moderate decline in 2021. For the 3 years 2020 to 2022, life expectancy was 0.13 years (95% confidence interval 0.07-0.19) higher for males and 0.09 years (0.03-0.14) higher for females versus 2017-19. Australia's life expectancy increase in 2020 was larger than that in the vast majority of other high-income countries, but its decline in 2022 was greater than in other countries whose life expectancy rose in the first year of the pandemic. The small negative contribution of COVID-19 deaths to life expectancy in Australia was more than offset by lower non-communicable disease mortality. There were only small differences in life expectancy change between the states with the most stringent restrictions (Victoria and New South Wales) and the rest of Australia.
Australia's life expectancy trends during 2020-22 were relatively favourable compared with other high-income countries, with the exception of its sharp decline in 2022 once restrictions were loosened.
澳大利亚为我们提供了一个有关大流行期间预期寿命的宝贵国际案例研究。与许多其他国家不同，在 2020-21 年期间，澳大利亚经历了相对严格的限制和较低的 COVID-19 死亡率，随后在高疫苗接种率实现后放宽了这些限制。本研究旨在衡量澳大利亚在大流行期间的预期寿命趋势及其在年龄组和死因方面的贡献。
从 2020 年到 2022 年，测量了澳大利亚及其州和地区的出生时预期寿命趋势。使用分解方法测量了年龄组和死因对这些趋势的贡献。将预期寿命与其他高收入国家进行了比较。
2022 年，澳大利亚的预期寿命下降了半年多，此前 2020 年急剧上升，2021 年略有下降。在 2020 年至 2022 年的 3 年中，男性预期寿命比 2017-19 年高出 0.13 岁（95%置信区间 0.07-0.19），女性高出 0.09 岁（0.03-0.14）。与其他高收入国家相比，澳大利亚在 2020 年的预期寿命增长幅度更大，但在大流行的第一年，其 2022 年的预期寿命下降幅度更大。澳大利亚的 COVID-19 死亡率对预期寿命的负面影响很小，这一影响被较低的非传染性疾病死亡率所抵消。在限制最严格的州（维多利亚州和新南威尔士州）和澳大利亚其他地区之间，预期寿命变化差异很小。
与其他高收入国家相比，澳大利亚在 2020-22 年期间的预期寿命趋势相对较好，除了在放宽限制后 2022 年的急剧下降。
