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航空决策缺陷导致致命通用航空事故。

Deficient Aeronautical Decision-Making Contributions to Fatal General Aviation Accidents.

出版信息

Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2023 Nov 1;94(11):807-814. doi: 10.3357/AMHP.6245.2023.

Abstract

General aviation (GA), mainly comprised of light (≤12,500 lb) aircraft, maintains an inferior safety record compared with air carriers. To improve safety, aeronautical decision-making (ADM) practices have been advocated to GA pilots since 1991. Herein, we determined the extent to which GA pilots disregard such practices. Fatal accidents (1991-2019) involving private pilots (PPLs) in single-engine airplanes were identified ( = 1481) from the National Transportation Safety Board Access database. Of these, deficient go/no-go and in-flight ADM-related mishaps were scored using the PAVE (pilot, aircraft, environment, external pressure)/IMSAFE (illness, medicine, stress, alcohol, fatigue, eating) and PPP (perceive, process, perform) models, respectively. Statistical testing used Poisson distributions, Fisher exact tests, and Mann-Whitney -tests. Of the 1481 accidents, 846 were identified as deficient ADM-related. Electing to depart into a hazardous environment (PAVE), disregarding wellness (IMSAFE), and poor aircraft familiarity (PAVE) represented the most common categories (54%, 21%, and 20%, respectively) of errant go/no-go ADM. A 64% decline in fatal accidents related to errant go/no-go decisions for the environment category was evident over the 30-yr period, with little decrements in the other domains. Within the errant environment-related category accidents, the decision to depart into forecasted adverse weather (e.g., degraded visibility, icing, thunderstorms) constituted the most prevalent subcategory (56%, = 195). Surprisingly, of this subcategory, accidents were overrepresented by over nine- and threefold for instrument-rated PPLs disregarding icing and thunderstorm forecasts, respectively. With little decrement in ADM-related accidents in the pilot, aircraft, and external pressure domains, new strategies to address such deficiencies for PPLs are warranted.

摘要

通用航空(GA)主要由轻(≤12,500 磅)飞机组成,与航空公司相比,其安全记录较差。自 1991 年以来,航空决策(ADM)实践一直被倡导用于 GA 飞行员。在此,我们确定了 GA 飞行员忽视这些实践的程度。从国家运输安全委员会(NTSB)数据库中确定了涉及单引擎飞机的私人飞行员(PPL)的致命事故(1991-2019 年)(= 1481)。在这些事故中,使用 PAVE(飞行员、飞机、环境、外部压力)/IMSAFE(疾病、药物、压力、酒精、疲劳、饮食)和 PPP(感知、处理、执行)模型分别对不足的是/否决策和飞行中 ADM 相关的事故进行评分。统计测试使用泊松分布、Fisher 精确检验和 Mann-Whitney -检验。在 1481 起事故中,有 846 起被确定为不足的 ADM 相关事故。选择进入危险环境(PAVE)、忽视健康(IMSAFE)和飞机不熟悉(PAVE)分别代表最常见的错误是/否 ADM 类别(分别为 54%、21%和 20%)。在 30 年的时间里,与错误的是/否决策相关的致命事故与环境类别的比例下降了 64%,而其他领域的下降幅度很小。在错误的环境相关类别的事故中,决定进入预报的不利天气(例如,能见度降低、结冰、雷暴)构成了最常见的亚类(56%,= 195)。令人惊讶的是,在这个亚类中,忽略结冰和雷暴预报的仪表等级 PPL 的事故比例分别超过了九倍和三倍。在飞行员、飞机和外部压力领域,与 ADM 相关的事故几乎没有减少,因此需要为 PPL 制定新的策略来解决这些缺陷。

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