Student Research Committee, Department of Biostatistics, School of Health, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Department of Health Sciences, Laboratoire BioNR and Centre Intersectoriel en Santé Durable (CISD), Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, Chicoutimi, Québec, Canada.
PLoS One. 2023 Nov 27;18(11):e0291205. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0291205. eCollection 2023.
COVID-19 was responsible for many deaths and economic losses around the globe since its first case report. Governments implemented a variety of policies to combat the pandemic in order to protect their citizens and save lives. Early in 2020, the first cases were reported in Arizona State and continued to rise until the discovery of the vaccine in 2021. A variety of strategies and interventions to stop or decelerate the spread of the pandemic has been considered. It is recommended to define which strategy was successful for disease propagation prevention and could be used in further similar situations. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of people's contact interventions strategies which were implemented in Arizona State and their effect on reducing the daily new COVID-19 cases and deaths. Their effect on daily COVID-19 cases and deaths were evaluated using an interrupted time series analysis during the pandemic's first peaks to better understand the onward situation. Canceling the order of staying at home (95% CI, 1718.52 to 6218.79; p<0.001) and expiring large gatherings (95% CI, 1984.99 to 7060.26; p<0.001) on June 30 and August 17, 2020, respectively, had a significant effect on the pandemic, leading to the daily cases to grow rapidly. Moreover, canceling the stay at home orders led to an increase in the number of COVID-19 daily deaths by 67.68 cases (95% CI, 27.96 to 107.40; p<0.001) after about 21 days while prohibiting large gatherings significantly decreased 66.76 (95% CI: 20.56 to 112.96; p = 0.004) the number of daily deaths with about 21 days' lag. The results showed that strategies aimed at reducing people's contact with one another could successfully help fight the pandemic. Findings from this study provide important evidence to support state-level policies that require observance of social distancing by the general public for future pandemics.
自首例报告以来,COVID-19 在全球范围内导致了许多死亡和经济损失。各国政府实施了各种政策来抗击这一大流行病,以保护其公民和拯救生命。2020 年初,亚利桑那州首次报告了病例,并持续上升,直到 2021 年发现疫苗。已经考虑了各种策略和干预措施来阻止或减缓大流行的传播。建议确定哪种策略对疾病传播的预防有效,并可用于未来类似的情况。本研究旨在评估亚利桑那州实施的人们接触干预策略的效果及其对减少每日新增 COVID-19 病例和死亡的影响。在大流行的第一个高峰期,使用中断时间序列分析来评估它们对每日 COVID-19 病例和死亡的影响,以更好地了解未来的情况。分别于 2020 年 6 月 30 日和 8 月 17 日取消居家令(95%CI,1718.52 至 6218.79;p<0.001)和终止大型集会(95%CI,1984.99 至 7060.26;p<0.001)对大流行有显著影响,导致每日病例迅速增加。此外,取消居家令大约 21 天后,导致 COVID-19 每日死亡人数增加 67.68 例(95%CI,27.96 至 107.40;p<0.001),而禁止大型集会则显著减少了 66.76 例(95%CI:20.56 至 112.96;p=0.004),大约 21 天后的每日死亡人数。结果表明,旨在减少人与人之间接触的策略可以成功帮助抗击大流行。本研究结果为未来大流行需要公众遵守社会距离的州级政策提供了重要证据支持。