Migration, belonging, and the sustainability of atoll islands through a changing climate.

Climate change might catalyze and exacerbate the trend of outmigration from low-lying atoll islands. There is speculation that migration away from atolls may not stop until such islands are abandoned. Yet migration creates both opportunities and risks for the sustainability of atoll communities. There is a trade-off between reduced demographic pressure on increasingly fragile atoll island environments and the financial and human resources necessary to adapt to climate change that can result from migration. Here we propose and analyze belonging as the centripetal force that makes migration a process that enhances the sustainability of atoll populations. We examine the relationship between migration, belonging, and the sustainability of populations on atoll islands based on data collected in three atoll islands in the Pacific: the island state of Niue; Namdrik Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands; and Budibudi atoll (Laughlan Islands) in Papua New Guinea. In each case, belonging binds the people who live in and migrate from these places into a collective commitment to their continuity, yet it does so to different degrees according to the economic opportunities available to migrants and the infrastructure that enables extended communities to remain connected.