Climate and urbanization drive changes in the habitat suitability of competent snails in Brazil.

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by parasites. are obligate parasites of freshwater snails, so controlling snail populations is critical to reducing transmission risk. As snails are sensitive to environmental conditions, we expect their distribution is significantly impacted by global change. Here, we leveraged machine learning, remote sensing, and 30 years of snail occurrence records to map the historical and current distribution of competent throughout Brazil. We identified key features influencing the distribution of suitable habitat and determined how habitat has changed with climate and urbanization over the last three decades. Our models show that climate change has driven broad shifts in snail host range, whereas expansion of urban and peri-urban areas has driven localized increases in habitat suitability. Elucidating change in distribution - while accounting for non-linearities that are difficult to detect from local case studies - can help inform schistosomiasis control strategies.