Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emission in Chengdu-Chongqing area: an urban transportation perspective.

The Chengdu-Chongqing twin-city economic circle is a vital growth pole and a new power source for Chinese high-quality development. Studying the spatial-temporal characteristics of carbon emissions and the role of factors affecting them under the transportation perspective is of great significance for this region to realize the carbon peak and carbon neutrality and to formulate carbon emission reduction policies. We use the exploring spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial regression model combined with the STIRPAT model, and research finding: (1) The total carbon emissions in the research area gradually increased from 2014 to 2020, but the growth rate showed a significant decline in 2019. (2) There is significant spatial heterogeneity of carbon emissions in the study area; the hotspot areas of total carbon emissions are in Chongqing and Chengdu, forming a high-low aggregation of carbon emissions. Per capita carbon emissions show a high trend in the southwest and a low in the northeast. (3) From the factors of transportation perspective, highway density and private vehicles have a positive impact on carbon emissions, and urban road areas and public transportation have a very significant inhibition of carbon emissions and a spatial spillover effect. (4) Other factors, such as population size, national economic development, urbanization level, and industrial structure, all have a positive effect on carbon emissions, and disposable income has a negative effect on carbon emissions.