Social and Affective Neuroscience Group, MoMiLab, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, Lucca, Italy.
Department of Neurosciences and Mental Health, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.
Transl Psychiatry. 2024 Mar 9;14(1):140. doi: 10.1038/s41398-024-02852-9.
Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising tool to enhance suicidal prediction. However, as many large-sample studies mixed psychiatric and non-psychiatric populations, a formal psychiatric diagnosis emerged as a strong predictor of suicidal risk, overshadowing more subtle risk factors specific to distinct populations. To overcome this limitation, we conducted a systematic review of ML studies evaluating suicidal behaviors exclusively in psychiatric clinical populations. A systematic literature search was performed from inception through November 17, 2022 on PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus following the PRISMA guidelines. Original research using ML techniques to assess the risk of suicide or predict suicide attempts in the psychiatric population were included. An assessment for bias risk was performed using the transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines. About 1032 studies were retrieved, and 81 satisfied the inclusion criteria and were included for qualitative synthesis. Clinical and demographic features were the most frequently employed and random forest, support vector machine, and convolutional neural network performed better in terms of accuracy than other algorithms when directly compared. Despite heterogeneity in procedures, most studies reported an accuracy of 70% or greater based on features such as previous attempts, severity of the disorder, and pharmacological treatments. Although the evidence reported is promising, ML algorithms for suicidal prediction still present limitations, including the lack of neurobiological and imaging data and the lack of external validation samples. Overcoming these issues may lead to the development of models to adopt in clinical practice. Further research is warranted to boost a field that holds the potential to critically impact suicide mortality.
机器学习 (ML) 已成为增强自杀预测的有前途的工具。然而,由于许多大样本研究混合了精神科和非精神科人群,正式的精神科诊断成为自杀风险的强烈预测因素,超过了特定人群更微妙的风险因素。为了克服这一限制,我们对专门评估精神科临床人群自杀行为的 ML 研究进行了系统综述。根据 PRISMA 指南,从最初到 2022 年 11 月 17 日,在 PubMed、EMBASE 和 Scopus 上进行了系统的文献搜索。使用 ML 技术评估精神病患者自杀风险或预测自杀企图的原始研究被纳入。使用透明报告个体预后或诊断的多变量预测模型 (TRIPOD) 指南对偏倚风险进行评估。大约检索到 1032 项研究,其中 81 项符合纳入标准,并进行了定性综合。临床和人口统计学特征是最常使用的特征,与其他算法相比,随机森林、支持向量机和卷积神经网络在准确性方面表现更好。尽管程序存在异质性,但大多数研究根据先前的尝试、疾病的严重程度和药物治疗等特征报告了 70%或更高的准确性。尽管报告的证据很有希望,但用于自杀预测的 ML 算法仍然存在局限性,包括缺乏神经生物学和影像学数据以及缺乏外部验证样本。克服这些问题可能会导致开发可用于临床实践的模型。进一步的研究是必要的,以推动一个有可能对自杀死亡率产生重大影响的领域。