University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA.
Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA.
J Res Adolesc. 2024 Dec;34(4):1312-1325. doi: 10.1111/jora.12926. Epub 2024 Mar 30.
Antisocial and illegal behavior generally declines as youth approach adulthood, but there is significant individual variation in the timing of the peak and decline of offending from adolescence to young adulthood. There are two primary research questions in the present study. First, are there subgroups of youth who follow similar patterns of offending over the nine years after their first arrest? Second, what baseline factors predict which youth will follow each pattern of offending? Data were drawn from the Crossroads study, which includes a sample of racially and ethnically diverse boys who were interviewed regularly for 9 years following their first arrest. Boys were between 13 and 17 years old at the start of the study and were approximately 24-25 years old at the final interview. Trajectories were measured with youths' self-reported offending using latent class growth analysis (LCGA). Results indicated that there were four subgroups of youth: a stable low group (55%), an escalating group (23%), a short-term recidivist group (15%), and a persistently high group (7%). Several baseline factors distinguished the groups. In particular, the results indicated that youth who were informally processed after their first arrest were more likely to be in the low offending group than any of the other LCGA groups. Age at first arrest, peer delinquency, exposure to violence, substance use, callous-unemotional traits, physical aggression, and perceptions of police legitimacy were also significantly related to group membership. Results suggest that certain risk factors identified after youths' first arrest may predict which youth continue to offend and which desist.
反社会和非法行为通常随着年轻人接近成年而减少，但在青少年到成年早期犯罪的高峰期和下降期，个体之间存在显著的变化。本研究有两个主要研究问题。首先，在首次被捕后的九年中，是否存在遵循相似犯罪模式的青年亚群？其次，哪些基线因素可以预测哪些青年将遵循每种犯罪模式？本研究的数据来自十字路口研究，该研究包括一个种族和民族多样化的男孩样本，这些男孩在首次被捕后定期接受了 9 年的访谈。研究开始时，男孩的年龄在 13 至 17 岁之间，在最后一次访谈时大约 24-25 岁。轨迹是通过青少年的自我报告犯罪使用潜在类别增长分析（LCGA）来衡量的。结果表明，有四个青年亚群：稳定的低犯罪组（55%）、上升组（23%）、短期累犯组（15%）和持续高犯罪组（7%）。几个基线因素可以区分这些群体。特别是，研究结果表明，在首次被捕后被非正式处理的青年更有可能属于低犯罪组，而不是任何其他 LCGA 群体。首次被捕的年龄、同伴犯罪、接触暴力、药物使用、冷酷无情特质、身体攻击以及对警察合法性的看法与群体成员身份也有显著的关系。研究结果表明，在青少年首次被捕后确定的某些风险因素可能预测哪些青年继续犯罪，哪些青年停止犯罪。
