Testing the evolutionary potential of an alpine plant: phenotypic plasticity in response to growth temperature outweighs parental environmental effects and other genetic causes of variation.

Phenotypic plasticity and rapid evolution are fundamental processes by which organisms can maintain their function and fitness in the face of environmental changes. Here we quantified the plasticity and evolutionary potential of an alpine herb Wahlenbergia ceracea. Utilizing its mixed-mating system, we generated outcrossed and self-pollinated families that were grown in either cool or warm environments, and that had parents that had also been grown in either cool or warm environments. We then analysed the contribution of environmental and genetic factors to variation in a range of phenotypic traits including phenology, leaf mass per area, photosynthetic function, thermal tolerance, and reproductive fitness. The strongest effect was that of current growth temperature, indicating strong phenotypic plasticity. All traits except thermal tolerance were plastic, whereby warm-grown plants flowered earlier, grew larger, and produced more reproductive stems compared with cool-grown plants. Flowering onset and biomass were heritable and under selection, with early flowering and larger plants having higher relative fitness. There was little evidence for transgenerational plasticity, maternal effects, or genotype×environment interactions. Inbreeding delayed flowering and reduced reproductive fitness and biomass. Overall, we found that W. ceracea has the capacity to respond rapidly to climate warming via plasticity, and the potential for evolutionary change.