From the Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), San Francisco, CA.
Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.
Epidemiology. 2024 Sep 1;35(5):628-637. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001755. Epub 2024 Jul 5.
Difference-in-differences (DiD) is a powerful, quasi-experimental research design widely used in longitudinal policy evaluations with health outcomes. However, DiD designs face several challenges to ensuring reliable causal inference, such as when policy settings are more complex. Recent economics literature has revealed that DiD estimators may exhibit bias when heterogeneous treatment effects, a common consequence of staggered policy implementation, are present. To deepen our understanding of these advancements in epidemiology, in this methodologic primer, we start by presenting an overview of DiD methods. We then summarize fundamental problems associated with DiD designs with heterogeneous treatment effects and provide guidance on recently proposed heterogeneity-robust DiD estimators, which are increasingly being implemented by epidemiologists. We also extend the discussion to violations of the parallel trends assumption, which has received less attention. Last, we present results from a simulation study that compares the performance of several DiD estimators under different scenarios to enhance understanding and application of these methods.
差异中的差异 (DiD) 是一种强大的、准实验研究设计,广泛应用于具有健康结果的纵向政策评估。然而,当政策设置更加复杂时,DiD 设计在确保可靠的因果推断方面面临着若干挑战。最近的经济学文献表明,当存在异质处理效应(政策实施交错的常见后果)时,DiD 估计量可能存在偏差。为了加深我们对这些流行病学进展的理解,在这个方法学入门中,我们首先介绍 DiD 方法概述。然后,我们总结了与具有异质处理效应的 DiD 设计相关的基本问题,并提供了关于最近提出的、越来越多被流行病学家采用的异质稳健 DiD 估计量的指导。我们还将讨论扩展到违反平行趋势假设的情况,这一假设受到的关注较少。最后,我们呈现了一项模拟研究的结果,比较了不同情况下几种 DiD 估计量的性能,以增强对这些方法的理解和应用。