Exploring Opioid Prescription Patterns and Overdose Rates in South Carolina (2017-2021): Insights into Rising Deaths in High-Risk Areas.

With opioid overdose rates on the rise, we aimed to develop a county-level risk stratification that specifically focused on access to medications for opioid use disorder (MOUDs) and high overdose rates. We examined over 15 million records from the South Carolina Prescription Tracking System (SCRIPTS) across 46 counties. Additionally, we incorporated data from opioid treatment programs, healthcare professionals prescribing naltrexone, clinicians with buprenorphine waivers, and county-level overdose fatality statistics. To assess the risk of opioid misuse, we classified counties into high-risk and low-risk categories based on their prescription rates, overdose fatalities, and treatment service availability. Statistical methods employed included the two-sample -test and linear regression. The -test assessed the differences in per capita prescription rates between high-risk and low-risk counties. Linear regression was used to analyze the trends over time. Our study showed that between 2017 and 2021, opioid prescriptions decreased from 64,223 to 41,214 per 100,000 residents, while fentanyl-related overdose deaths increased by 312%. High-risk counties had significantly higher rates of fentanyl prescriptions and relied more on out-of-state doctors. They also exhibited higher instances of doctor shopping and had fewer medical doctors per capita, with limited access to MOUDs. To effectively combat the opioid crisis, we advocate for improved local healthcare infrastructure, broader treatment access, stricter management of out-of-state prescriptions, and vigilant tracking of prescription patterns. Tailored local strategies are essential for mitigating the opioid epidemic in these communities.