Outcomes of Medicaid Rebalancing May Differ Across Enrollee Populations.

Access to home- and community-based services (HCBS) may prevent or delay nursing home transitions among older adults. Medicaid's Balancing Incentive Program (BIP) (2011-2015) provided assistance for U.S. states to increase access to HCBS through infrastructure changes and spending benchmarks. We combined longitudinal data from the 2008-2019 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey and Minimum Data Set and used survival modeling to examine the association between BIP exposure (living in a BIP-participant state vs. not) and time to long-term institutionalization (LTI, defined as a nursing home episode of 90+ days) among dual enrollees ages 65 and older. In the main effects model, BIP exposure was not associated with hazard of LTI. Interaction models showed that BIP exposure was associated with a lower hazard of LTI among Hispanic/Latinx enrollees, while the opposite was true among non-Hispanic White enrollees. Our findings suggest the outcomes of Medicaid rebalancing efforts may differ across enrollee subgroups.