Sullivan Caleb, Senanayake Pubudu, Plank Michael J
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Stats NZ, Christchurch, New Zealand.
R Soc Open Sci. 2024 Oct 2;11(10):240550. doi: 10.1098/rsos.240550. eCollection 2024 Oct.
Accounting for population age structure and age-specific contact patterns is crucial for accurate modelling of human infectious disease dynamics and impact. A common approach is to use contact matrices, which estimate the number of contacts between individuals of different ages. These contact matrices are frequently based on data collected from populations with very different demographic and socio-economic characteristics from the population of interest. Here we use a comprehensive household composition dataset based on Aotearoa New Zealand census and administrative data to construct a household contact matrix and a synthetic population that can be used for modelling. We investigate the behaviour of a compartment-based and an agent-based epidemic model parametrized using these data, compared with a commonly used contact matrix that was constructed by projecting international data onto New Zealand's population. We find that using the New Zealand household data, either in a compartment-based model or in an agent-based model, leads to lower attack rates in older age groups compared with using the projected contact matrix. This difference becomes larger when household transmission is more dominant relative to non-household transmission. We provide electronic versions of the synthetic population and household contact matrix for other researchers to use in infectious disease models.
考虑人口年龄结构和特定年龄的接触模式对于准确模拟人类传染病动态和影响至关重要。一种常见的方法是使用接触矩阵,该矩阵估计不同年龄个体之间的接触次数。这些接触矩阵通常基于从与目标人群具有非常不同的人口和社会经济特征的人群中收集的数据。在这里,我们使用基于新西兰奥塔哥人口普查和行政数据的综合家庭构成数据集来构建家庭接触矩阵和可用于建模的合成人口。我们研究了使用这些数据参数化的基于 compartment 的流行病模型和基于 agent 的流行病模型的行为,并与通过将国际数据投影到新西兰人口上构建的常用接触矩阵进行了比较。我们发现,与使用投影接触矩阵相比,在基于 compartment 的模型或基于 agent 的模型中使用新西兰家庭数据会导致老年人群体的感染率较低。当家庭传播相对于非家庭传播更占主导地位时,这种差异会变得更大。我们提供合成人口和家庭接触矩阵的电子版,供其他研究人员在传染病模型中使用。