Orchinik Reed, Dubey Rachit, Gershman Samuel J, Powell Derek M, Bhui Rahul
Sloan School of Management, MIT, 100 Main St, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.
Department of Psychology, Harvard University, 33 Kirkland St, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
PNAS Nexus. 2024 Oct 31;3(11):pgae485. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae485. eCollection 2024 Nov.
Despite overwhelming scientific consensus on the existence of human-caused climate change, public opinion among Americans remains split. Directly informing people of scientific consensus is among the most prominent strategies for climate communication, yet the reasons for its effectiveness and its limitations are not fully understood. Here, we propose that consensus messaging provides information not only about the existence of climate change but also traits of climate scientists themselves. In a large ( ) nationally representative survey experiment, we examine how consensus information affects belief in human-caused climate change by shaping perceptions of climate scientist credibility. In the control group ( ), we first show that people learn both from and about climate scientists when presented with consensus and that perceived scientist credibility (especially skill) mediates up to about 40% of the total effect of consensus information on climate belief. We demonstrate that perceptions of climate scientists are malleable with two novel interventions that increase belief in climate change above and beyond consensus information.
尽管科学界就人为气候变化的存在达成了压倒性的共识，但美国人的公众舆论仍然存在分歧。直接向人们传达科学共识是气候传播中最突出的策略之一，但其有效性和局限性的原因尚未完全明确。在此，我们提出，共识信息不仅提供了有关气候变化存在的信息，还传达了气候科学家自身的特质。在一项大规模的全国代表性调查实验中，我们研究了共识信息如何通过塑造对气候科学家可信度的认知来影响对人为气候变化的信念。在对照组中，我们首先表明，当呈现共识信息时，人们既能从气候科学家那里学到知识，也能了解到他们的相关情况，并且感知到的科学家可信度（尤其是专业技能）在共识信息对气候信念的总影响中起到了高达约40%的中介作用。我们通过两项新颖的干预措施证明，对气候科学家的认知是可塑的，这些干预措施能使对气候变化的信念在共识信息之外进一步增强。
