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热指数:衡量气候变化时代气象因素对腹泻影响的替代指标:孟加拉国达卡的时间序列研究。

Heat Index: An Alternative Indicator for Measuring the Impacts of Meteorological Factors on Diarrhoea in the Climate Change Era: A Time Series Study in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

机构信息

Institute for Global Health (IGH), University College London (UCL), London WC1N 1EH, UK.

UK Public Health Rapid Support Team (UK PHRST), Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London WC1E 7HT, UK.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2024 Nov 7;21(11):1481. doi: 10.3390/ijerph21111481.

DOI:10.3390/ijerph21111481
PMID:39595748
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11593466/
Abstract

Heat index (HI) is a biometeorological indicator that combines temperature and relative humidity. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the Heat Index and daily counts of diarrhoea hospitalisation in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Data on daily diarrhoea hospitalisations and meteorological variables from 1981 to 2010 were collected. We categorised the Heat Index of >94.3 °F (>34.6 °C), >100.7 °F (>38.2 °C) and >105 °F (>40.6 °C) as high, very high and extremely high Heat Index, respectively. We applied a time series adjusted generalised linear model (GLM) with negative binomial distribution to investigate the effects of the Heat Index and extreme Heat Index on hospitalisations for diarrhoea. Effects were assessed for all ages, children under 5 years old and by gender. A unit higher HI and high, very high and extremely high HI were associated with 0.8%, 8%, 7% and 9% increase in diarrhoea hospitalisations in all ages, respectively. The effects varied slightly by gender and were most pronounced in children under 5 years old with a rise of 1°F in high, very high and extremely high HI associated with a 14.1% (95% CI: 11.3-17.0%), 18.3% (95% CI: 13.4-23.5%) and 18.1% (95% CI: 8.4-28.6%) increase of diarrhoea, respectively. This suggests that the Heat Index may serve as an alternative indicator for measuring the combined effects of temperature and humidity on diarrhoea.

摘要

热指数(HI)是一种生物气象指标,它结合了温度和相对湿度。本研究旨在探讨热指数与孟加拉国达卡地区腹泻住院日数之间的关系。收集了 1981 年至 2010 年的每日腹泻住院数据和气象变量数据。我们将热指数>94.3°F(>34.6°C)、>100.7°F(>38.2°C)和>105°F(>40.6°C)分别归类为高热指数、极高热指数和极端高热指数。我们应用具有负二项分布的时间序列调整广义线性模型(GLM)来研究热指数和极端热指数对腹泻住院的影响。评估了所有年龄、5 岁以下儿童和性别对住院的影响。热指数每升高 1 单位,高热指数、极高热指数和极端高热指数分别使所有年龄人群的腹泻住院率增加 0.8%、8%、7%和 9%。性别差异略有不同,在 5 岁以下儿童中最为明显,高热指数、极高热指数和极端高热指数每升高 1°F,腹泻住院率分别上升 14.1%(95%CI:11.3-17.0%)、18.3%(95%CI:13.4-23.5%)和 18.1%(95%CI:8.4-28.6%)。这表明热指数可以作为衡量温度和湿度对腹泻综合影响的替代指标。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/422a/11593466/1a2880b88f87/ijerph-21-01481-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/422a/11593466/1c5804e66879/ijerph-21-01481-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/422a/11593466/2d4208a7506a/ijerph-21-01481-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/422a/11593466/1c057f0db7a8/ijerph-21-01481-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/422a/11593466/1a2880b88f87/ijerph-21-01481-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/422a/11593466/1c5804e66879/ijerph-21-01481-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/422a/11593466/2d4208a7506a/ijerph-21-01481-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/422a/11593466/1c057f0db7a8/ijerph-21-01481-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/422a/11593466/1a2880b88f87/ijerph-21-01481-g004.jpg

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