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气候变化下(鞘翅目:金龟科)潜在分布的预测

Predicting the Potential Distribution of (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Under Climate Change.

作者信息

Yu Yali, Li Zhiqiang

机构信息

Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510260, China.

出版信息

Insects. 2024 Dec 20;15(12):1012. doi: 10.3390/insects15121012.

Abstract

(Jordan, 1898), a beetle species of ecological and ornamental significance, is predominantly found in southern China. With limited dispersal ability, it is classified as a Class 2 protected species in China. In this study, the widely employed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and the ensemble Biomod2 model were applied to simulate habitat suitability in China under current environmental conditions based on available distribution data and multiple environmental variables. The optimized MaxEnt model demonstrated improved accuracy and robust predictive capabilities, making it the preferred choice for simulating dynamic changes in potentially suitable habitats for under future climate scenarios. Protection gaps were further identified through analyses of the overlap between nature reserves and highly suitable areas for . The established models indicated that this species primarily resides in southeastern mountainous regions of China below 2000 m, with a preferred altitude of 1000-2000 m. Future climate scenarios suggest a reduction in the overall suitable habitat for with an increase in temperature, underscoring the urgent need for enhanced conservation efforts for this beetle species.

摘要

(乔丹,1898年)是一种具有生态和观赏意义的甲虫物种,主要分布在中国南方。由于其扩散能力有限,在中国被列为二级保护物种。在本研究中,基于现有的分布数据和多个环境变量,应用广泛使用的最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和集成生物模型2(Biomod2)模型来模拟当前环境条件下中国的栖息地适宜性。优化后的MaxEnt模型显示出更高的准确性和强大的预测能力,使其成为模拟未来气候情景下潜在适宜栖息地动态变化的首选模型。通过分析自然保护区与该物种高度适宜区域之间的重叠情况,进一步确定了保护缺口。建立的模型表明,该物种主要栖息在中国东南部海拔2000米以下的山区,最适宜海拔为1000 - 2000米。未来气候情景表明,随着气温升高,该物种的整体适宜栖息地将减少,凸显了加强对这种甲虫物种保护工作的迫切需求。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/595b/11677015/21771b9bd800/insects-15-01012-g001.jpg

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