Fan Yu-Chen, Yuan Ya-Qi, Yuan Ya-Chao, Duan Wen-Jing, Gao Zhi-Qiang
College of Agriculture, Shanxi Agricultural University, Shanxi, Jinzhong, China.
Department of Biological and Technology, Jinzhong University, Shanxi, Jinzhong, China.
PeerJ. 2025 Jan 6;13:e18569. doi: 10.7717/peerj.18569. eCollection 2025.
It is crucial to elucidate the impact of climate change on wheat production in China. This article provides a review of the current climate change scenario and its effects on wheat cultivation in China, along with an examination of potential future impacts and possible response strategies. Against the backdrop of climate change, several key trends emerge: increasing temperature during the wheat growing season, raising precipitation, elevated CO concentration, and diminished radiation. Agricultural disasters primarily stem from oscillations in temperature and precipitation, with the northern wheat region being mostly affected. The impact on wheat production is manifested in a reduction in the area under cultivation, with the most rapid reduction in spring wheat, and a shift in the center of cultivation to the west. Furthermore, climate change accelerates the nutritional stage and shortens phenology. Climate change has also led to an increase in yields in the Northeast spring wheat region, the Northern spring wheat region, the Northwest spring wheat region, and the North China winter wheat region, and a decrease in yields in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River winter wheat region, the Southwest winter wheat region, and the South China winter wheat region. To cope with climate change, Chinese wheat can adopt adaptation strategies and measures such as breeding different wheat varieties for different wheat-growing regions, implementing differentiated farmland management measures, promoting regional ecological farmland construction, and establishing scientific monitoring and early warning systems. While future climate change may stimulate wheat yield potential, it could cause climate-induced issues such as weeds, diseases, and pests worsen, thereby posing challenges to the sustainability of farmland. Moreover, it is essential to conduct comprehensive research on pivotal areas such as the microscopic mechanism of climate change and wheat growth, the comprehensive influence of multiple climate factors, and the application of new monitoring and simulation technologies. This will facilitate the advancement of related research and provide invaluable insights.
阐明气候变化对中国小麦生产的影响至关重要。本文综述了当前气候变化情景及其对中国小麦种植的影响，并考察了未来潜在影响和可能的应对策略。在气候变化背景下，出现了几个关键趋势：小麦生长季气温升高、降水量增加、二氧化碳浓度升高以及辐射减少。农业灾害主要源于气温和降水的波动，北方小麦产区受影响最大。对小麦生产的影响表现为种植面积减少，其中春小麦减少最快，种植中心向西转移。此外，气候变化加速了营养生长阶段并缩短了物候期。气候变化还导致东北春小麦区、北部春小麦区、西北春小麦区和华北冬小麦区产量增加，而长江中下游冬小麦区、西南冬小麦区和华南冬小麦区产量下降。为应对气候变化，中国小麦可采取适应策略和措施，如针对不同小麦种植区培育不同小麦品种、实施差异化农田管理措施、推进区域生态农田建设以及建立科学监测和预警系统。虽然未来气候变化可能刺激小麦产量潜力，但可能导致杂草、病虫害等气候引发的问题加剧，从而给农田可持续性带来挑战。此外，有必要对气候变化与小麦生长的微观机制、多种气候因素的综合影响以及新监测和模拟技术的应用等关键领域进行全面研究。这将推动相关研究进展并提供宝贵见解。
