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在线搜索与疫苗接种的共生效应——百度指数与疫苗接种数据的非线性相关分析

The symbiotic effect of online searches and vaccine administration-a nonlinear correlation analysis of baidu index and vaccine administration data.

作者信息

Liu Yixin, Ran Lingshi, Wang Yang, Xia Yixue

机构信息

Research Center of Network Public Opinion Governance, China People's Police University, Langfang, 065000, China.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2025 Mar 12;25(1):975. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-21740-5.

Abstract

This study primarily addresses the analytical problem of the mathematical mechanism underlying the associative impact between online searches and vaccine uptake, a relationship that has become increasingly relevant in the context of public health management. As internet search behaviors reflect public interest and sentiment, understanding their impact on vaccination trends is crucial for real-time health decision-making. A Logistic model is constructed to observe the fundamental evolutionary patterns between online searches and vaccine uptake. To explore their mutual influence, an impact function is defined, and the common structural factors with the highest fitness are determined through data fitting. Subsequently, a dynamic detection model of the associative impact between online data and societal objects, based on the mathematical mechanism, is established. Using this model, dynamic predictions are conducted to verify its predictive capability at certain stages. Through research, a symbiotic effect between online searches and vaccine uptake is identified, revealing a nonlinear correlation between the two. The model demonstrates the ability to predict vaccine uptake trends based on online search data, with certain prediction windows showing high accuracy. This research not only clarifies the mathematical mechanism underlying this relationship but also demonstrates the advantage of integrated analysis and prediction. It provides a new method for predicting online searches and vaccine uptake, offering theoretical and empirical support for public health and social science research.

摘要

本研究主要解决在线搜索与疫苗接种率之间关联影响背后的数学机制这一分析问题,这种关系在公共卫生管理背景下变得越来越重要。由于互联网搜索行为反映了公众的兴趣和情绪,了解它们对疫苗接种趋势的影响对于实时健康决策至关重要。构建了一个逻辑模型来观察在线搜索与疫苗接种率之间的基本演变模式。为了探索它们的相互影响,定义了一个影响函数,并通过数据拟合确定了拟合度最高的共同结构因素。随后,基于数学机制建立了一个在线数据与社会对象关联影响的动态检测模型。使用该模型进行动态预测,以验证其在特定阶段的预测能力。通过研究,确定了在线搜索与疫苗接种率之间的共生效应,揭示了两者之间的非线性相关性。该模型展示了基于在线搜索数据预测疫苗接种率趋势的能力,某些预测窗口显示出较高的准确性。本研究不仅阐明了这种关系背后的数学机制,还展示了综合分析和预测的优势。它为预测在线搜索和疫苗接种率提供了一种新方法,为公共卫生和社会科学研究提供了理论和实证支持。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ef04/11905692/2ea77b4478b1/12889_2025_21740_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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