2022年胆囊癌的全球负担及至2042年的预测。

Global burden of gallbladder cancer in 2022 and predictions to 2042.

作者信息

Guo Hanfeng, Zhang Decai, Li Zhaoqi, Liu Shaojun, Wang Rui

机构信息

Department of Gastroenterology, The Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410013, Hunan Province, China; Hunan Key Laboratory of Nonresolving Inflammation and Cancer, Changsha 410013, Hunan Province, China.

出版信息

Dig Liver Dis. 2025 Jun;57(6):1294-1300. doi: 10.1016/j.dld.2025.02.007. Epub 2025 Mar 12.

DOI:10.1016/j.dld.2025.02.007

PMID:40082101

Abstract

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This study aims to provide updated estimate on the global burden of Gallbladder cancer (GBC) in 2022 and to predict the trends through the year 2042.

METHODS

Data were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2022 database. Incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and Human Development Index (HDI). Trends up to the year 2042 were predicted based on global demographic projections by HDI.

RESULTS

Worldwide, there were 122,469 new GBC cases and 89,045 deaths identified in 2022. While the highest absolute number was observed in South Central Asia and Eastern Asia, particularly India and China, countries in South America, particularly Bolivia, showed the highest age-standardised rate. Medium HDI countries showed more than double the incidence and mortality rates compared to low HDI countries. Over half of GBC cases and deaths occurred in individuals aged 50-74 years. Predictions indicate a 65.3 % increase in new cases and a 67.6 % increase in deaths by 2042, with High HDI countries and Low HDI countries experiencing the largest absolute and percentage increases, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The global burden of GBC is substantial, especially concentrated in South Central Asia, Eastern Asia and South America. With significant increase of burden over the next 20 years, there is an urgent need for effective cancer control strategies in regions exhibiting great GBC burden.

摘要

背景与目的

本研究旨在提供2022年全球胆囊癌（GBC）负担的最新估计，并预测到2042年的趋势。

方法

数据取自GLOBOCAN 2022数据库。按性别、国家、世界区域和人类发展指数（HDI）计算发病率和死亡率。根据HDI的全球人口预测，预测了到2042年的趋势。

结果

2022年全球范围内，共确诊122,469例新的GBC病例和89,045例死亡病例。虽然绝对病例数最高的地区是中亚南部和东亚，尤其是印度和中国，但南美洲国家，特别是玻利维亚，显示出最高的年龄标准化发病率。中等HDI国家的发病率和死亡率是低HDI国家的两倍多。超过一半的GBC病例和死亡发生在50-74岁的人群中。预测表明，到2042年新发病例将增加65.3%，死亡人数将增加67.6%，其中高HDI国家和低HDI国家的绝对增长和百分比增长分别最大。