埃及自闭症情况调查：基于人群对1至12岁儿童患病率、风险决定因素及严重程度的洞察

Mapping autism in Egypt: population-based insights into prevalence, risk determinants, and severity among children aged 1-12 years.

作者信息

Metwally Ammal M, Salah El-Din Ebtissam M, Sami Samia M, Abdelraouf Ehab R, Sallam Sara F, Elsaeid Amal, El-Saied Mostafa M, Ashaat Engy A, Fathy Asmaa M, El-Hariri Hazem M, Elshaarawy Ghada A, Nassar Maysa S, Shehata Manal A, El-Alameey Inas R, Bassiouni Randa I, Abdou Mohamed H, Helmy Mona A, Elghareeb Nahed A, AbdAllah Mohamed, Rabah Thanaa M, Salama Somia I, Saleh Rehan M, El Etreby Lobna A, Elmosalami Dalia M, Eltahlawy Eman, Zeid Dina Abu

机构信息

Community Medicine Research Department, Medical Research and Clinical Studies Institute, National Research Centre (Affiliation ID:60014618), P.O. 12622, Dokki, Cairo, Egypt.

Child Health Department, Medical Research and Clinical Studies Institute, National Research Centre (Affiliation ID: 60014618), Dokki, Cairo, Egypt.

出版信息

Mol Autism. 2025 May 29;16(1):32. doi: 10.1186/s13229-025-00665-1.

DOI:10.1186/s13229-025-00665-1

PMID:40442748

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), a common developmental disorder, has surged in recent years. Accordingly, the identification and early management of possible risk factors can diminish ASD incidence.

AIM

To determine the prevalence and severity of idiopathic ASD in Egyptian children aged 12 months to 12 years, and to identify the epidemiological, sociodemographic, and environmental risk factors contributing to this disorder.

METHODS

This study comprised 41,640 children from the main eight geographic areas in Egypt. It was conducted through four phases: household screening, facility-based screening for high-risk children, diagnosis confirmation, and risk factor assessment.

RESULTS

The prevalence of ASD as confirmed by the criteria of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) and the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS) was 1.1% (455 out of 41,640), with significant geographic variability. Urban areas had a significantly higher prevalence than rural areas. Children aged 3-6 years showed the highest prevalence at 1.5%. Boys were four times more affected than girls, with prevalence rates of 1.7% and 0.4%, respectively. Significant risk factors included: a history of convulsions (AOR = 4.7; 95% CI: 3.3-6.79), low birth weight (AOR = 2.08; 95% CI: 1.54-2.79), prolonged stays in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) longer than two days (AOR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.46-2.49) and maternal health problems during pregnancy (AOR = 1.66; 95% CI:1.36-1.95). Regarding severity, 45% of diagnosed children had moderate ASD, 39% had severe ASD, and 16% had mild ASD. Female gender and older age were significant predictors of greater ASD severity.

CONCLUSION

ASD prevalence in Egypt is comparable to other Middle Eastern countries. Policymakers should utilize these findings to design targeted public health interventions aimed at early detection, management, and prevention of ASD progression.

摘要

背景

自闭症谱系障碍（ASD）作为一种常见的发育障碍，近年来患病率激增。因此，识别并尽早管理可能的风险因素可降低ASD的发病率。

目的

确定12个月至12岁埃及儿童特发性ASD的患病率及严重程度，并识别导致该疾病的流行病学、社会人口学和环境风险因素。

方法

本研究纳入了来自埃及八个主要地理区域的41,640名儿童。研究分四个阶段进行：家庭筛查、对高危儿童进行机构筛查、确诊以及风险因素评估。

结果

根据《精神疾病诊断与统计手册》第五版（DSM-5）标准及儿童自闭症评定量表（CARS）确诊的ASD患病率为1.1%（41,640名儿童中有455名），存在显著的地域差异。城市地区的患病率显著高于农村地区。3至6岁儿童的患病率最高，为1.5%。男孩受影响的几率是女孩的四倍，患病率分别为1.7%和0.4%。显著的风险因素包括：惊厥病史（比值比[AOR]=4.7；95%置信区间[CI]：3.3 - 6.79）、低出生体重（AOR = 2.08；95% CI：1.54 - 2.79）、在新生儿重症监护病房（NICU）停留超过两天（AOR = 1.91；95% CI：1.46 - 2.49）以及母亲孕期健康问题（AOR = 1.66；95% CI：1.36 - 1.95）。关于严重程度，45%的确诊儿童患有中度ASD，39%患有重度ASD，16%患有轻度ASD。女性和年龄较大是ASD严重程度较高的显著预测因素。