Day One Cell-Free DNA Levels as an Objective Prognostic Marker of Mortality in Major Burns Patients.

BACKGROUND

Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) released during tissue damage has attracted interest as a marker of patient outcomes. However, limited research has examined its predictive utility in thermally injured patients.

METHODS

This study measured cfDNA concentrations across days 1, 3, 7, 14, and 28 post-burn in a total cohort of 98 adult patients with total body surface area (TBSA) burns ≥ 15% and healthy controls (HC). CfDNA concentrations in survivors (n = 79) versus non-survivors (n = 16) were compared and area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) models generated to evaluate cfDNA as a predictor of mortality.

RESULTS

Patient cfDNA levels were significantly elevated at all time points compared to HC. Positive correlations were identified between day 1 cfDNA concentrations (n = 95) and %TBSA (r = 0.413, < 0.0005), rBAUX (r = 0.365, = 0.0005) and SOFA (r = 0.391, = 0.0002). On day one, cfDNA levels showed good discriminatory ability for distinguishing between survivors and non-survivors (AUROC 0.778), with an optimal cut-off value of 446.37 pg/mL exhibiting a sensitivity of 0.80 and specificity of 0.70. Predictive models built on rBAUX, SOFA, interleukin(IL)-6 and IL-10 generated AUROC values of 0.733, 0.743, 0.472, and 0.688 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Major burns result in immediate and persistent cfDNA elevation, with concentrations on day one higher in non-survivors. Plasma cfDNA concentrations on day one post-burn showed good performance as a prognostic marker for mortality. CfDNA therefore represents a rapid objective measure that may be useful during acute burn assessments to aid mortality predictions.