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2010 - 2020年乌干达手机拥有情况、号码变更频率及其对公共卫生服务提供的影响

Trends in mobile phone ownership, frequency of number changes, and implications for public health service delivery in Uganda, 2010-2020.

作者信息

Ssekubugu Robert, Yeh Ping Teresa, Nakawooya Hadijja, Ssempijja Victor, Kigozi Godfrey, Kagaayi Joseph, Nalugoda Fred, Ekström Anna Mia, Nantume Betty, Serwadda David, Kreniske Philip, Zeebari Zangin, Moffa Michelle A, Chang Larry W, Grabowski Kate M, Makumbi Fredrick, Nordenstedt Helena

机构信息

Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 11;15(1):25076. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-10887-1.

Abstract

Mobile phones significantly improve access to healthcare, public health services, and disease surveillance globally. However, challenges related to reachability and accessibility persist, especially when individuals change or drop telephone numbers affecting continuity in public health interventions such as HIV follow-ups and vaccine reminders. We explored trends in phone ownership, changes in mobile phone numbers, associated factors, and the time it takes to better understand how these might affect the ability of phone-based public health services to reach targeted recipients. We used data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a population-based prospective open cohort in rural Uganda. Between 2010 and 2020, data on phone ownership and individuals' phone numbers were collected for six consecutive visits. We assessed trends in phone ownership using descriptive statistics. Factors associated with the number of times individuals changed their phone numbers were assessed using a Poisson multivariable regression model. We used Anderson Gill Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate the time-to-change of phone numbers. In total 41,922 participants contributed 97,034 visits. A majority (61.8%) of participants owned a mobile phone at some point from 2010 to 2020. Phone ownership increased over the study period from 51.2% in 2010 to 68.2% in 2020 (p < 0.001). Phone ownership was lower among women participants (versus men; adjPR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.78-0.83) and younger persons < 25 years (versus ≥ 25 years; adjPR = 0.69; 95% CI 0.65-0.72), but there were no differences by HIV serostatus. The rate of change in phone numbers was significantly lower among women participants (adjusted prevalence ratio [adjIRR] = 0.88; 0.83-0.95) and those with secondary education or above (versus primary or none; adjIRR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.87-0.98). In contrast, it was higher among young persons aged 15-24-years old (versus 45 + years; adjIRR = 2.52; 95% CI 2.13-2.76), those living in lake Victoria fishing communities (versus trading centers, adjIRR = 1.28; 95% CI 1.17-1.40), persons with lower SES (versus higher SES; adjIRR:1.30; 95% CI 1.19-1.42), and persons living with HIV (versus HIV negative participants; adjIRR = 1.11; 95% CI 1.03-1.20). In this Ugandan cohort, mobile phone ownership increased over time, although by 2020 nearly 30% of the population still did not own a phone, and participants frequently changed phone numbers. Being a man, living with HIV, and lower socioeconomic status were all associated with changing phone numbers, a community peer system to maintain contact with these groups may be required to supplement phone-based initiatives.

摘要

手机显著改善了全球范围内获得医疗保健、公共卫生服务和疾病监测的机会。然而,与可达性和可及性相关的挑战依然存在,尤其是当个人更换或停用电话号码时,这会影响诸如艾滋病毒随访和疫苗提醒等公共卫生干预措施的连续性。我们探讨了手机拥有情况的趋势、手机号码的变化、相关因素以及所需时间,以便更好地了解这些因素如何影响基于手机的公共卫生服务覆盖目标受众的能力。我们使用了来自乌干达农村地区基于人群的前瞻性开放队列——拉凯社区队列研究的数据。在2010年至2020年期间,连续六次随访收集了关于手机拥有情况和个人电话号码的数据。我们使用描述性统计评估手机拥有情况的趋势。使用泊松多变量回归模型评估与个人更换电话号码次数相关的因素。我们使用安德森吉尔考克斯比例风险回归来评估电话号码更换的时间。共有41,922名参与者贡献了97,034次随访数据。在2010年至2020年的某个时间点,大多数(61.8%)参与者拥有手机。在研究期间,手机拥有率从2010年的51.2%上升到2020年的68.(p < 0.001)。女性参与者(与男性相比;调整后PR = 0.81;95% CI 0.78 - 0.83)和年龄小于25岁的年轻人(与年龄≥25岁相比;调整后PR = 0.69;95% CI 0.65 - 0.72)的手机拥有率较低,但艾滋病毒血清学状态方面没有差异。女性参与者(调整后患病率比[adjIRR] = 0.88;0.83 - 0.95)以及受过中等教育及以上的参与者(与小学或未受过教育相比;adjIRR = 0.92;95% CI 0.87 - 0.98)更换电话号码的比率显著较低。相比之下,15至24岁的年轻人(与45岁及以上相比;adjIRR = 2.52;95% CI 2.13 - 2.76)、居住在维多利亚湖渔业社区的人(与贸易中心相比;adjIRR = 1.28;95% CI 1.17 - 1.40)、社会经济地位较低的人(与社会经济地位较高相比;adjIRR:1.30;95% CI 1.19 - 1.42)以及艾滋病毒感染者(与艾滋病毒阴性参与者相比;adjIRR = 1.11;95% CI 1.03 - 1.20)更换电话号码的比率较高。在这个乌干达队列中,手机拥有率随时间增加,尽管到2020年仍有近30%的人口没有手机,而且参与者经常更换电话号码。男性、艾滋病毒感染者和社会经济地位较低都与更换电话号码有关,可能需要一个社区同伴系统来与这些群体保持联系,以补充基于手机的举措。

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