1. 研究背景与全球粮食安全发展现状
1.1 气候变化的演化趋势与特征
近半个世纪以来，全球气候系统经历了显著且持续的变化。全球地表平均温度呈现出明显的上升趋势，尤其在过去几十年中，升温速率加快。例如，有研究指出，全球气温在过去一个世纪里上升了约0.5℃-0.7℃，且在1965年至1980年间，全球平均气温达到了仪器记录以来的最高水平1。在过去的十年中，全球温度的上升速度与前二十年一样快，尽管存在厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜循环等年际波动2。到2023年，人为造成的全球变暖已达到1.31℃（相对于1850-1900年），而2014-2023十年间的平均升温为1.19℃3。这种前所未有的升温速率，表明人为温室气体排放对气候系统的影响日益加剧3。
除了气温升高，全球降水格局也发生了复杂的变化。虽然整体趋势不像气温那样普遍一致，但气候变化研究显示，全球和区域尺度的降水模式正在改变4。这种降水格局的变化对全球水资源分布和农业生产产生了影响，例如地表蒸散发的变化可能会影响作物的水分供应和潜在产量5。此外，大气中温室气体浓度，特别是二氧化碳、甲烷和氧化亚氮的浓度持续上升。其中，氧化亚氮的全球大气摩尔分数自1750年以来增加了近25%，并在2020年和2021年录得了1980年以来最快的年增长率，达到超过1.3 ppb/年6。这些温室气体的累积导致了地球能量收支失衡，进一步推动了全球变暖3。
展望未来30年，在不同排放情景下，气候变化的演化预测显示出更为严峻的趋势。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的评估报告综合了多种气候模型（如耦合模式比较计划CMIP5和CMIP6）的预测结果，这些模型基于不同的代表性浓度路径（RCPs）和共享社会经济路径（SSPs），描绘了未来气候演变的可能性7891011。在“一切照旧”的高排放情景下（如RCP8.5），预计全球平均温度将持续显著上升，极端天气事件将更加频繁和强烈。即使在积极减排情景下（如RCP2.6），未来30年内仍将面临一定的升温和气候变化影响，但升温幅度会明显减小，并可能在本世纪末实现碳中和甚至负排放，从而稳定气候系统101213。然而，值得注意的是，近期的气候观测数据表明，气候系统，特别是海平面，对气候变化的响应可能比当前模型预测的更快14。此外，IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）的编制采用了FAIR原则，强调数据可追溯性和透明度，为未来气候预测的可靠性提供了更坚实的基础15。
1.2 全球粮食安全的评估维度与当前风险分布
全球粮食安全是一个多维度、复杂的概念，其评估通常基于联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）提出的四大支柱框架：可获得性（Availability）、可及性（Access）、利用性（Utilization）和稳定性（Stability）。
可获得性：指食物供应的充足性，包括国内产量、库存和进口量。当前全球粮食供应面临结构性矛盾。尽管全球粮食总产量在过去几十年有所增长，但分布不均。例如，中国等主要粮食消费国由于膳食结构的变化，对动物性食品需求增加，导致其粮食自给率可能下降，进而影响全球粮食市场供需平衡16。同时，国际贸易在全球粮食安全中扮演着关键角色，但高度集中的生产区域和复杂的供应链使得某些地区的粮食供应易受外部冲击影响17。COVID-19疫情的经验表明，封锁、经济衰退和贸易限制可能导致粮食供应链中断，从而影响粮食可获得性，尤其是在发展中国家181920。
可及性：指个体或家庭获取足够食物的经济和物理能力。全球范围内，经济发展不平衡、收入差距悬殊以及冲突等因素严重制约了粮食的可及性。例如，一些低收入发展中国家，食品价格上涨、失业率增加以及货币波动会直接导致贫困人口购买力下降，使其无法负担充足的食物。例如，在COVID-19疫情期间，一些发展中国家的粮食不安全风险主要与经济获取粮食（如粮食通胀）有关，而在较高收入的发展中经济体中，可获得性方面的风险（如粮食贸易限制和货币贬值）更为普遍18。
利用性：指个体有效吸收和利用食物中营养的能力，这与食物质量、食品安全、饮用水卫生、卫生条件以及营养知识等因素密切相关。食品安全风险，如黄曲霉毒素等霉菌毒素污染，因气候变化而加剧，可能对人类和动物健康构成威胁，从而影响食物的利用性21。城市农业虽然有助于提高食物可获得性，但也可能存在化学和生物风险，需要完善的食品安全评估框架来保障食物利用性22。
稳定性：指上述三个维度在时间和空间上的持续性，不受短期冲击（如极端天气、经济危机、政治冲突）的影响。气候变化带来的极端天气事件，如干旱、洪涝、高温等，直接威胁农业生产的稳定性，导致产量波动，进而引发食物供应和价格的不稳定。这在很大程度上影响了发展中国家小农户的粮食安全和福祉，小农户面临粮食不安全与福祉之间的复杂相互作用23。
当前，全球粮食安全的高风险区域主要集中在撒哈拉以南非洲、南亚以及一些冲突和政治不稳定的地区。这些区域往往气候脆弱性高、农业基础设施薄弱、贫困人口众多，且易受外部冲击影响。气候变化进一步加剧了这些区域的风险，导致作物歉收、病虫害蔓延24，使得饥饿和营养不良问题日益严峻25。根据FAO的评估，许多发展中国家在努力实现农业产品自给自足方面面临挑战，特别是在应对气候变化和生物能源发展等长期趋势下，其粮食安全前景不容乐观26。
2. 极端天气事件对粮食生产系统的直接冲击
2.1 典型极端天气事件的时空分布特征
气候变化导致极端天气事件的频率、强度和持续时间发生显著变化，这些事件直接冲击全球粮食生产系统，对农业造成严重破坏27。主要农业致灾型极端天气事件包括干旱、高温热浪、极端降水和热带气旋（如台风），其时空分布特征表现出独特的规律。
干旱： 干旱是影响粮食生产最主要的极端天气事件之一。全球变暖导致蒸发量增加和地表干燥，进而加剧了干旱的强度和持续时间28。近年来，全球多地干旱事件频发。例如，中国西北地区和西藏西南部干旱出现频率较高，而黄淮海平原和云贵高原则分别是中国北方和西南地区的干旱中心29。在印度尼西亚的Progo Hulu分流域，农业干旱在Sumbing和Sindoro的山坡和山麓地区迅速发生，并随着无降雨天数的增加而逐渐蔓延30。在非洲，气候变化也导致了干旱、洪水和热浪等极端天气事件的加剧，对农业生产力、水资源可利用性和生计造成严重影响31。在西南地区，水稻干旱的发生频率呈现年代际下降趋势，但高风险区域主要集中在云南省西北部和中东部、四川盆地东部、重庆市东北部以及贵州省东南部32。干旱不仅减少了作物产量，还降低了收割面积，对谷物生产造成9-10%的显著减产33。
高温热浪： 全球气温的持续上升增加了热浪事件的发生频率和强度34。长时间的高温对作物生长造成热胁迫，影响作物的生理过程，如光合作用和授粉，进而降低作物产量。例如，极热天气主要导致谷物产量下降33。在巴西，自1961年至2010年，热应激水平持续升高，预计到21世纪末，在两种代表性浓度路径（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下，未来几十年内热应激情况将更频繁出现，西部和北部地区可能出现更高的湿球黑球温度（WBGT）值35。未来，热事件对谷物碳氮比的影响预计将更为显著36。
极端降水与洪涝： 尽管一些地区的总降水量可能减少，但全球变暖导致空气中水汽含量增加，使得极端降水事件的强度和频率上升，从而增加了洪涝风险28。例如，在过去一个世纪中，美国已发生重度降水增加的趋势，未来气候情景显示极端降水事件的频率可能增加，包括飓风期间的降水，从而提高洪涝风险37。中国也观测到极端天气和气候事件的频率和强度发生了显著变化38。洪水会对农业生产设施、耕地造成急性破坏，并可能引发病虫害的传播，如钩端螺旋体病39。然而，对全球谷物生产损失的分析显示，洪涝和极端寒冷在国家层面的数据中未能识别出对谷物生产的显著影响33。这可能表明，洪涝的影响更具区域性和局部性，而非普遍性。
热带气旋（如台风）： 热带气旋，如飓风和台风，带来强风、暴雨和风暴潮，对沿海及内陆农业区造成毁灭性打击。然而，关于热带气旋活动趋势的可靠检测受到数据异质性和内部变率量化不足的限制，对其趋势归因于人类活动仍存在争议40。尽管如此，热带气旋对农业的破坏是显而易见的，可以导致作物倒伏、淹没和基础设施损毁。
总体而言，极端天气事件的时空分布特征显示，干旱和高温热浪在全球范围内对粮食生产构成持续且日益增长的威胁，其影响路径包括降低产量和减少耕作面积。极端降水事件虽然在总降水量不变甚至减少的地区也可能增加，但其对国家层面谷物生产的直接影响不如干旱和高温显著。这些事件共同作用，增加了全球粮食生产的脆弱性，对区域乃至全球粮食安全构成严峻挑战。
2.2 极端天气对农业生产的破坏路径与传导效应
极端天气事件对全球粮食生产系统的破坏是多方面的，其影响不仅局限于直接的农作物损失，还会通过一系列传导效应，对短期粮食供应、农产品价格乃至全球供应链稳定性造成深远冲击。
对耕地和农业生产设施的直接破坏：
极端天气事件首先对耕地和农业基础设施造成物理性破坏。例如，严重的洪涝灾害能够直接淹没农田，导致作物窒息死亡、土壤养分流失和板结，甚至冲毁农田基础设施，如灌溉系统、排水设施和农用道路。越南河静省对水稻生产的案例研究表明，在气候变化影响下，极端降水强度预计将增加49.14%，频率增加5倍，导致洪水变得更加严重、水深更深、持续时间更长，水稻生产的经济损失显著增加。到2050年代，水稻淹没面积将增加12.61%，损失价值将上升超过21% 41。干旱则导致土壤水分亏缺，耕地退化，甚至引发沙尘暴，侵蚀表层土壤。高温热浪则可能导致土壤水分快速蒸发，加剧土壤板结和盐碱化，降低土壤肥力。此外，强风（如台风和飓风）能够直接摧毁温室、农用建筑和电力传输线路，中断农业生产所需的能源供应和物流运输。
对作物生长期的急性破坏：
极端天气事件在作物生长关键时期发生时，其破坏力尤为显著。
- 干旱：在作物需水高峰期（如播种、抽穗、灌浆期），干旱会导致作物生长停滞、籽粒不饱满，甚至死亡，从而大幅度降低产量 4243。全球范围内，气候变异性解释了约三分之一的作物产量变异，其中干旱是主要驱动因素之一 44。
- 高温热浪：高温胁迫会影响作物的光合作用效率、蛋白质变性，并干扰生殖器官发育，例如导致花粉失活、授粉失败，从而造成减产甚至绝收 42。有研究指出，全球平均气温每升高1摄氏度，玉米产量将平均减少7.4%，小麦减少6.0%，水稻减少3.2%，大豆减少3.1% 45。
- 极端降水：过量的降水和洪涝会使作物根系因缺氧而腐烂，延迟作物成熟期，并增加病虫害发生的风险 46。在孟加拉国，季风洪水导致水稻和黄麻等主要作物减产，平均每公顷水稻产量损失约2.25吨 46。
- 温度骤降/霜冻：生长季节的突发性低温或霜冻，特别是对于不耐寒的作物，可造成大规模冻害，导致作物死亡或产量严重下降。
引发的短期粮食供应波动与价格传导效应：
极端天气事件对农业生产的直接破坏会迅速传导至粮食市场，导致短期粮食供应波动和价格上涨。
- 供应冲击：区域性的作物歉收会直接减少市场供应量，尤其对于高度依赖单一作物或少数几个主产区供应的地区，影响更为剧烈。例如，在东非地区，气候变化、经济危机和冲突的叠加效应导致了粮食不安全，其中气候变化加剧了极端天气事件，从而降低农业生产力 47。
- 价格上涨：当粮食供应减少时，市场供需失衡将导致农产品价格上涨。这种价格上涨对低收入和贫困人口的影响尤为严重，因为他们食品支出占家庭总支出的比例更高，从而加剧粮食不安全状况。供应链中断如COVID-19疫情期间的封锁和贸易限制导致马来西亚大米进口波动，进一步加剧了区域性供应紧张 48。
- 供应链中断：极端天气事件不仅影响生产环节，还会通过对运输、储存等环节造成影响，从而破坏农业供应链。例如，多层次的气候变化和供应中断事件会对马铃薯供应链产生影响 49。供应链的脆弱性使得农产品从产地到消费者的流通效率降低，进一步加剧了区域性供应紧张和价格波动。
综合来看，极端天气事件通过物理破坏、生物影响和市场传导等多种途径，对全球粮食安全构成严峻挑战。其复杂性和系统性要求更全面和协调的应对策略。
3. 气候变化对粮食作物产能的长期影响规律
3.1 气候因子变化对主粮作物生长的作用机制
气候变化并非仅仅表现为极端天气事件的短期冲击，它更通过改变关键气候因子（如积温、降水格局和大气二氧化碳浓度）的长期趋势，深刻影响主粮作物的生理生化过程、生长发育周期和最终产量潜力。理解这些作用机制是评估气候变化对粮食安全长期影响的基础。
1. 积温变化对作物生长发育的影响：
积温（Growing Degree Days, GDD）是衡量作物生长发育速率的重要指标，通常定义为每日平均气温与作物生长基线温度之差的累积值。全球气温升高直接导致积温增加，进而加速了作物的生长发育进程。对于许多作物而言，生长周期缩短意味着营养生长期和生殖生长期被压缩，尤其是在灌浆期缩短，这可能导致籽粒灌浆不足，最终影响产量 5051。例如，小麦和水稻的生育期会因高温而加速，导致产量下降，因为留给光合作用和物质积累的时间减少了 5152。玉米和大豆等作物在超过最佳生长温度后，其产量增长甚至可能停滞 5354。然而，不同作物对温度升高的耐受阈值存在差异 52。例如，水稻在特定高温条件下，其籽粒充实过程可能受到不利影响，而小麦则可能表现出不同的响应。在温带和寒带地区，适度的升温可能延长无霜期，拓宽作物种植北界，或允许作物进行多季种植，从而在一定程度上增加区域粮食产量。但一旦超过作物的热耐受上限，即使是轻微的温度升高也会带来显著的负面影响 52。
2. 降水格局变化对作物水分利用的影响：
降水是作物生长的主要水分来源。气候变化导致降水总量、强度、频率和季节分布发生改变，直接影响作物的水分供应。
- 降水总量变化：一些区域可能面临总降水量的减少，加剧干旱风险，特别是在雨养农业区，这会严重限制作物生长，引发水分胁迫。干旱胁迫会通过影响光合作用、蒸腾作用和营养物质运输等多个生理过程，导致作物生长受阻和产量下降 5556。
- 降水强度和频率变化：极端降水事件的增多可能导致土壤侵蚀和养分流失，同时洪涝灾害会淹没作物根系，造成缺氧，影响根系对水分和养分的吸收。另一方面，降水频率的减少意味着作物在两次降水之间面临更长的干旱期。
- 季节分布变化：降水季节模式的改变可能导致作物在关键生长期（如播种期、花期和灌浆期）无法获得充足的水分，即使年总降水量没有显著变化。这要求农业生产必须适应新的降水模式，例如调整播种时间或采用节水灌溉技术。
3. 二氧化碳（CO2）浓度升高对作物光合作用和生长的影响：
大气CO2浓度是作物光合作用的底物，其升高通常被认为对C3作物（如小麦、水稻、大豆等）有“CO2施肥效应”，即提高光合作用效率，从而促进生物量积累和产量增加 5157。
- 光合作用增强：在CO2浓度升高条件下，C3作物由于更高的CO2浓度促进了光合作用，表现出更高的植物生长和生产力 58。这使得作物在相同的光照条件下能固定更多的碳，增加生物量 5759。例如，在未来CO2浓度下，小麦的生物量和产量均显著增加，尤其是在低纬度地区，大米产量可能会有所改善 50535960。
- 水分利用效率提高：高CO2浓度还会导致作物气孔导度下降，减少蒸腾失水，从而提高水分利用效率，这在一定程度上可以缓解干旱胁迫对作物生长的影响 51。
- 氮素利用效率变化：然而，CO2浓度升高也可能导致作物组织中氮含量相对下降，影响作物的营养品质，特别是蛋白质含量 515961。这意味着虽然产量可能增加，但作物的营养价值可能降低，对人类和牲畜的营养构成潜在影响。
- 与温度的交互作用：CO2施肥效应并非独立存在，它与温度变化存在复杂的交互作用 5057。例如，在高温条件下，CO2施肥效应的增产潜力可能被高温胁迫所抵消，甚至出现负面效应 5758。这是因为高温会加速作物的呼吸速率、增加蒸散量、加速生育期，并可能导致病虫害侵扰增加 58。
不同主粮作物的气候耐受阈值：
不同主粮作物对气候因子的变化具有不同的耐受阈值和响应模式。
- 玉米、大豆：这两种作物对高温的敏感性较高，一旦超过最佳生长温度，其产量增长将停滞，尤其是在高收入国家的中高纬度地区 535462。全球变暖2°C可能导致玉米产量同步下降的概率显著增加，对全球粮食贸易稳定构成威胁 54。
- 小麦、水稻：作为主要的C3作物，它们在CO2浓度升高时通常能获得较好的增产效应，但在高温下，生育期缩短会导致产量下降，且高温对花粉活力和灌浆的负面影响显著 5152。例如，全球变暖1.0°C到1.8°C的增温可能会抵消CO2倍增给英国冬小麦带来的增产效益 50。
- 耐旱、耐热品种：通过生物技术和传统育种，开发耐旱、耐热的作物品种是应对气候变化影响的关键策略之一 5563。这些品种通过调节渗透压、抗氧化酶活性、热休克蛋白表达等机制来增强对逆境的抵抗力 64。
总的来说，气候因子变化对主粮作物生长的影响是复杂且多维的，既有潜在的增产效应（如CO2施肥），也有显著的减产风险（如高温、干旱、生育期缩短）。各作物种类之间的耐受阈值和响应机制差异巨大，这使得在区域和全球尺度上评估和预测其长期影响变得更加复杂。
3.2 全球主粮作物产量波动与减产风险评估
气候变化对全球主要粮食作物产量的影响并非单一方向，而是呈现出复杂的波动性和普遍的减产风险。量化这些影响对于理解未来全球粮食安全面临的挑战至关重要。研究表明，全球变暖已对小麦、水稻、玉米等主要粮食作物的产量产生了显著的负面影响，且不同区域和作物类型面临的减产风险等级分布特征各异。
1. 玉米（Maize）
玉米是全球重要的主粮和饲料作物。多项研究指出，全球变暖对玉米产量的负面影响最为显著。
- 减产幅度：有研究估计，全球气温每升高1摄氏度，玉米产量将平均减少7.1% 65。在模拟未来气候情景时，有预测显示，到2055年，伊利诺伊州中部地区雨养玉米的产量可能下降23%–34% 66。即使在巴黎协定将全球升温限制在1.5℃的情景下，所有主要的玉米生产国仍将面临显著的暖化导致的产量下降 65。
- 高风险区域：中国玉米主产区，特别是西北玉米区、农牧交错带以及华中西部玉米区，未来面临较高的干旱风险和产量损失。在高排放情景下（SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5），中国受严重玉米干旱影响的区域（损失率大于0.2）分别占全国玉米总面积的20.79%和18.87% 67。气候模型预估，到本世纪末，巴西大部分地区的玉米产量将因极端高温而大幅下降。
- 影响机制：玉米对高温的敏感性较高，尤其是在开花和籽粒形成阶段，水分胁迫和热胁迫会导致严重的产量损失 66。气候变暖还会增加美国作物保险项目的赔付率和政府支出，因为平均产量会下降，并且产量风险会增加，例如在1°C升温情景下，作物保险费率平均可能增加39% 68。
2. 水稻（Rice）
水稻是亚洲地区多数人口的主食。气候变化对水稻产量的影响同样值得关注。
- 减产幅度：全球平均气温每升高1摄氏度，水稻产量估计将平均减少5.6% 65。高温对水稻产量形成的影响是一个重要因素，特别是高日温和高夜温都会减少分蘖/穗数、每株粒数，并降低粒重，从而对产量造成负面影响 69。
- 影响机制：水稻的产量形成对温度，特别是高夜温非常敏感。高温会导致水稻的灌浆不充分，从而降低最终的粒重和产量 69。虽然二氧化碳施肥效应可能在一定程度上抵消高温对水稻的部分负面影响，但综合效应仍倾向于减产。
- 高风险区域：亚洲大部分水稻种植区，特别是在高日温和高夜温频繁发生的区域，面临较高的减产风险 69。
3. 小麦（Wheat）
小麦是全球广泛种植的另一主粮作物。其产量对气候变化的响应也呈现出复杂性。
- 减产幅度：全球平均气温每升高1摄氏度，小麦产量将平均减少2.9% 65，且可能在空间和时间上变得更加不稳定 70。另一项研究估计，未来全球气温每升高1°C，小麦产量将下降约6% 70。
- 影响机制：气候变暖对小麦产量有负面影响，这可能导致收获面积的下降 71。此外，气候变化还会影响氮肥的全球需求，以改善小麦产量，例如，需要更多的氮肥来抵消气候变化的负面影响 72。气候模型预估，到2050年，即使考虑了CO2施肥效应，气候变化可能使小麦产量增加4.6%，但由于收获面积减少，整体产量将下降5.5% 73。
- 高风险区域：全球主要小麦产区，特别是那些面临日益增加高温和干旱威胁的区域，如摩洛哥的半干旱环境下的灌溉小麦产区和美国的冬小麦产区 7174，面临较高的减产风险。在半干旱地区，虽然通过优化种植系统可以抵消部分产量损失，但对水资源的需求模式会发生变化 74。
总体减产风险分布特征：
- 普遍性：气候变化导致的产量损失是全球性的，几乎所有主要粮食作物和产区都将受到影响 65。
- 区域差异：高纬度地区可能因升温而略微受益，例如作物生长期延长或新的种植区域出现，但在中低纬度地区，尤其是热带和亚热带区域，减产风险更为突出，这些地区作物已接近其热耐受极限 65。
- 脆弱性叠加：发展中国家和地区，由于农业基础设施薄弱、技术水平落后和经济能力有限，对气候变化的适应能力较差，因此面临更高的减产风险和粮食不安全挑战。
- 多重因素影响：产量波动和减产风险不仅受单一气候因素影响，更是温度、降水、CO2浓度以及病虫害等多重因素综合作用的结果。例如，干旱和高温的复合事件对作物产量的打击尤为严重 66。
下表总结了气候变化对主要主粮作物产量的影响：
| 主要作物 | 全球平均气温每升高1℃的产量变化 65 | 主要影响机制 | 高风险区域举例 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 玉米 | -7.1% | 高温、干旱、水分胁迫对授粉和籽粒形成影响显著 66 | 中国西北、华中西部；美国伊利诺伊州中部 6667 |
| 水稻 | -5.6% | 高日温、高夜温降低分蘖/穗数和粒重 69 | 亚洲水稻种植区 69 |
| 小麦 | -2.9% | 气候变暖对产量有负面影响 71 | 全球主要小麦产区；摩洛哥半干旱环境下的灌溉小麦产区；美国冬小麦产区 707174 |
综上所述，气候变化对全球主粮作物产量的长期影响是复杂的，主要表现为普遍的减产风险，尤其是在中低纬度地区。这种减产不仅直接威胁粮食供应，还可能导致价格波动，加剧全球粮食不安全状况。因此，需要采取综合性的适应和减缓措施，以应对日益严峻的挑战。
4. 气候变化对粮食生产支撑要素的扰动
4.1 气候变化对农业水资源供需的影响
气候变化对农业水资源的供需平衡构成了严峻挑战，主要通过改变降水格局、影响地下水补给以及加剧沿海区域海水入侵等途径，直接影响农业灌溉的水量和水质，并使雨养农业区面临日益增长的水资源短缺风险。农业是全球最大的淡水消耗部门，约占全球淡水取水量的70% 75。气候变化导致的供水不确定性将直接威胁到全球粮食安全。
1. 降水格局变化对农业灌溉水量、水质的影响：
气候变化正在深刻改变全球和区域的降水模式。一些地区可能经历降水总量的减少，这直接导致地表径流和河流流量下降，减少了可用于农业灌溉的水源。例如，斯里兰卡、中东的约旦河西岸和伊朗的扎扬德鲁德河流域等地区的研究都表明，气候变化已导致或预计将导致水资源可利用性的显著下降，从而加剧农业灌溉的水量短缺 767778。
与此同时，降水强度和频率的变化也带来了问题。极端降水事件的增多可能导致短期洪涝，但由于径流速度快，水分渗透到土壤和地下水中的时间减少，反而可能加剧长期干旱的风险。此外，强降水还可能引发土壤侵蚀，将泥沙和污染物带入水体，影响灌溉水质，对农作物生长造成不利影响。在加纳的沃尔特盆地及其他流域系统，气候变化情景下的水资源评估显示，即使在湿润情景下，所有用水需求（包括农业）也无法同时满足，这凸显了降水格局变化带来的供水压力 79。
2. 地下水补给能力下降对农业灌溉的影响：
地下水是许多农业区重要的灌溉水源，尤其是在地表水资源不足或干旱时期。然而，气候变化通过多种机制影响地下水补给。
- 降水减少：如前所述，降水量的减少直接导致地下水补给来源的减少。
- 蒸发蒸腾增加：全球气温升高导致地表蒸发和植物蒸腾作用增强，使得更多的水分在到达地下含水层之前就返回大气，从而减少了有效入渗量 80。
- 地表径流模式改变：积雪融水是许多地区重要的地下水补给来源，气温升高可能导致积雪提前融化，或者融化速度加快，改变了地下水补给的季节性，使其无法有效满足夏季农业灌溉需求。
长期以来，为了满足日益增长的农业生产需求，许多地区过度抽取地下水，导致地下水位持续下降。例如，印度的卫星数据显示，由于农业灌溉，其地下水储量正在以惊人的速度枯竭 81。美国加州的中央谷地，一个高产的农业区，也面临着严重的地下水枯竭问题，这主要归因于灌溉用水需求，且这种枯竭可能难以持续，对美国的经济和粮食安全构成潜在的灾难性后果 82。全球范围内，地下水枯竭是一个加速的全球性问题，需要区域性策略来应对 83。
3. 沿海区域海水倒灌（海水入侵）对农业水资源和耕地的影响：
沿海农业区面临海水入侵的特殊威胁，这将直接影响淡水资源的可用性和土壤质量。
- 海平面上升：全球气候变暖导致海平面上升，使得海水更容易侵入沿海地区的淡水含水层，提高地下水盐度，使其不再适合农业灌溉。
- 地下水过度抽取：沿海地区农业对地下水的过度抽取会降低淡水含水层的压力，进一步加速海水向内陆的入侵。例如，在马来西亚雪兰莪州的凯里岛沿海地区，海水入侵对农业可持续性产生了影响 84。在印度西孟加拉邦的沿海地区，海水入侵也对灌溉和农业产生了显著影响 85。
- 土壤盐渍化：海水入侵导致土壤盐渍化，土壤中钠离子浓度升高，破坏土壤结构，降低土壤肥力，抑制作物生长，甚至导致耕地废弃。全球范围内，约8700万公顷的沿海农田由于地势低洼和靠近海岸线而容易受到海水入侵的影响，其中地中海、南亚和东南亚以及中国渤海湾地区是主要的受影响热点区域 86。海平面上升预计将使北美、印度次大陆和东南亚的农田面临更高的海水入侵风险。阿尔及利亚尼罗河平原的案例研究也表明，海水入侵与硝酸盐污染的复合影响对沿海农业区的地下水造成了严重威胁 87。
4. 雨养农业区的水资源短缺风险评估：
雨养农业（即完全依赖降水进行灌溉的农业）在全球粮食生产中占据重要地位，特别是在发展中国家。气候变化对降水格局的改变直接威胁到这些地区的粮食安全。
- “绿水”稀缺风险：研究指出，全球雨养农田正面临日益加剧的“绿水”稀缺风险。“绿水”是指储存在土壤中的水分，是雨养农业作物生长的关键。基线情景下（1996-2005年），全球25%（1.83亿公顷）的雨养农田被归类为可靠（每年绿水稀缺时间≤1个月）。然而，在1.5°C和3°C全球变暖情景下，可靠的雨养农田面积将分别损失7000万公顷和1.06亿公顷，这些农田将转变为风险或高风险类别 88。
- 人口影响：这意味着在1.5°C变暖情景下，将有0.8亿人口的粮食生产受到威胁，而在3°C变暖情景下，这一数字将增加到1.2亿，对依赖雨养系统地区的冲击尤为严重。3°C变暖情景下，严重的绿水稀缺范围将比1.5°C情景下翻倍，凸显了农业风险的非线性增长 88。
- 适应策略：为了应对雨养农业面临的水资源短缺风险，需要实施综合性的水资源弹性策略，包括优先考虑土壤水分保持、选择适应性作物和可持续灌溉措施 88。在撒哈拉以南非洲等地区，雨水收集和管理技术对于提高雨养农业系统的韧性至关重要 89。
总体而言，气候变化对农业水资源的供需影响是全面而深远的。降水模式的不可预测性、地下水资源的过度消耗和海水入侵的加剧，共同构成了全球农业生产面临的重大水资源挑战，尤其加剧了雨养农业区的水安全脆弱性。
4.2 气候驱动下的农业病虫害危害特征变化
气候变化不仅直接影响作物生长环境，还通过多种机制深刻改变农业病虫害的发生发展规律，对全球粮食生产构成日益严峻的威胁。温度升高、降水格局改变以及二氧化碳浓度上升等气候因子，正在驱动病虫害的越冬界限北移、迁飞路径扩展、繁殖周期缩短，进而导致全球粮食产量的显著损失。
1. 温度升高导致的病虫害越冬界限北移和迁飞路径扩展：
温度是昆虫等变温生物生长发育、繁殖和扩散的关键环境因子。全球气温升高使得原本寒冷、不适宜害虫越冬的区域变得适宜，导致病虫害的地理分布范围向更高纬度和更高海拔地区扩张。
- 越冬界限北移：许多农业害虫通过滞育（Diapause）或休眠来度过寒冷的冬季 90。气候变暖使得冬季温度升高，降低了害虫越冬的死亡率，并使其能够成功在更北的区域越冬。例如，云浮褐飞虱（Sogatella furcifera）的越冬北界和海拔上限都在向北和向高处移动 91。褐家鼠臭虫（Nezara viridula）也通过改变其冬季滞育行为，响应气候变暖，使其分布范围向北扩展 92。斑翅果蝇（Drosophila suzukii）也表现出表型可塑性，使其在冬季生存能力增强，从而推动了其地理范围的扩张 93。
- 迁飞路径扩展：温度升高不仅影响越冬，也改变了害虫的迁飞行为。随着气温升高，害虫在迁飞过程中能够利用的“跳板”地区增多，使得其迁飞距离和范围进一步扩大。例如，一些在热带和亚热带地区起源的迁飞性害虫，如草地贪夜蛾，能够凭借有利的气候条件，迅速扩散到新的区域，对当地农业生产造成巨大威胁。
2. 繁殖周期缩短与世代数增加：
温度升高加速了病虫害的代谢速率，缩短了其完成一个生命周期所需的时间，导致在同一生长季内能够完成的世代数增加（即“多世代性”）。
- 世代数增加：对于许多昆虫而言，每升高1°C的平均温度，其繁殖率和种群增长率可能显著提高。例如，研究表明，气候变化可以导致农业害虫在每个季节产生更多的世代 9495。更多的世代意味着害虫种群数量的快速增长和对作物的更频繁、更严重的危害。
- 危害时间延长：同时，随着春季提前和秋季延迟，作物生长季延长，病虫害的活跃时间也随之延长，增加了作物受害的机会。这种影响在不同害虫种类之间可能存在差异，但总体趋势是增加了害虫的累积危害潜力。
3. 对病原微生物和杂草的影响：
气候变化对农业病原微生物（细菌、真菌、病毒等）和杂草的影响同样显著。
- 病原菌扩散和毒性增强：温度和湿度条件的变化可以直接影响病原微生物的存活、繁殖和传播。例如，真菌病害对温度和湿度条件非常敏感，气候变化可能导致一些地区真菌病害的暴发频率和强度增加 96。一些研究还表明，病原体的毒性在特定气候条件下可能会增强。
- 杂草竞争加剧：大气中CO2浓度的升高对C3和C4植物具有不同的影响。许多C3杂草在CO2浓度升高的情况下光合效率会提高，生长速度加快，从而增强其与C3作物的竞争能力。此外，温度升高可能改变杂草的地理分布，导致新的杂草种类入侵农业生态系统。
4. 病虫害带来的全球粮食产量损失规模：
气候驱动下的病虫害变化已造成巨大的全球粮食产量损失。
- 量化损失：在气候变化背景下，害虫和病害造成的全球作物产量损失可能会提高。有研究指出，全球气温每升高1°C，虫害造成的产量损失可能会额外增加10-25% 95。这意味着，如果不采取有效应对措施，未来粮食产量损失将更加严重。
- 区域性影响：不同地区受病虫害影响的程度也存在差异。例如，中国、美国、法国等主要粮食生产国已经面临作物害虫大规模侵扰及其带来的产量损失 95。在热带和亚热带地区，由于全年温度较高，害虫世代更替快，加之气候变化带来的新挑战，病虫害压力尤为突出。
- 复合胁迫：更复杂的情况是，气候变化导致的病虫害问题往往与高温、干旱等非生物胁迫同时发生，形成复合胁迫。植物在面对多种胁迫时，其抗性反应会发生复杂的变化，可能导致产量损失加剧 9798。例如，臭氧污染也能导致作物减产，且其危害区域往往与病虫害、热应力等高风险区重叠 98。
综上所述，气候变化正在通过多种途径加剧农业病虫害的危害，导致全球粮食产量面临越来越大的损失风险。这需要深入研究病虫害对气候变化的响应机制，开发新的监测预警技术和适应性管理策略，以减轻其对粮食安全的负面影响。
5. 适应性农业技术的减损增效作用与应用实践
面对气候变化对全球粮食生产的严峻挑战，发展和推广适应性农业技术成为提升粮食系统韧性、确保全球粮食安全的关键策略。适应性农业技术旨在帮助农业系统更好地应对气候变化带来的不确定性和极端事件，通过减小损失、提高效率和增强可持续性来实现增产增效。这些技术涵盖了从传统农艺优化到现代气候智慧型农业的广泛范畴。
5.1 抗逆型农艺优化技术应用
抗逆型农艺优化技术是应对气候变化影响的基石，通过改良作物品种和优化种植管理措施，提高农业系统对干旱、高温、病虫害等逆境的抵御能力，实现减损增效。
1. 抗高温、抗旱、抗病虫害品种培育：
育种是提高作物抗逆性的最直接和有效手段。通过传统杂交育种、分子育种以及基因工程等现代生物技术，培育出对气候变化具有更强适应性的作物品种。
- 抗高温品种：选育在高温条件下仍能保持较高光合效率、正常授粉和灌浆的作物品种。例如，对于玉米而言，集约化的公共部门育种工作和公私合作在开发和部署精英抗逆性玉米品种方面取得了显著进展，这些品种能够在热带雨养环境中的干旱、高温、涝渍、盐碱、寒冷以及病虫害等多种胁迫下保持产量 99。
- 抗旱品种：通过选育根系发达、水分利用效率高、渗透调节能力强的品种，使其能够在缺水条件下维持生长和产量。利用基因工程、分子育种和组学技术，可以操纵抗旱基因，整合有利的农艺性状，以增强作物的抗旱能力 100。
- 抗病虫害品种：通过引入抗病基因，培育对主要病虫害具有遗传抗性的品种，从而减少农药使用，降低生产成本，并减轻气候变化导致的病虫害蔓延风险。例如，通过多样化的作物种植，可以提高农业生态系统抑制病虫害爆发的能力 101。
2. 播期调整：
根据气候变化趋势，适时调整作物的播种时间是规避极端天气风险的有效措施。通过分析长期气象数据和气候预测模型，将作物的关键生育期（如花期、灌浆期）安排在最适宜的气候窗口内，避开高温、干旱或洪涝等不利时期。例如，越南Xo Dang族人民就通过调整种植日历来应对气候变化 102。在一些地区，春季提前或秋季延迟为作物提供了更长的生长期，农户可以据此调整播期以优化产量。
3. 轮作与间作：
轮作（Crop Rotation）和间作（Intercropping）是传统的农艺措施，但在气候变化背景下显示出越来越重要的适应性价值。
- 轮作：指在同一块土地上按一定顺序轮换种植不同作物。轮作能够有效改善土壤结构、增加土壤有机质含量、提高土壤肥力，并减少病虫害的累积。研究表明，作物轮作可以有效增强农业生产系统的气候韧性，并降低农业系统的脆弱性，尤其是在中国等面临极端气候挑战的地区 103。通过轮作，还可以打破特定病虫害的生命周期，减少农药用量。
- 间作：指在同一块土地上同时种植两种或多种作物。间作系统能够更有效地利用光照、水分和养分资源，提高土地利用效率。例如，豆科作物与非豆科作物间作可以固氮，减少化肥使用。此外，间作还可以通过增加生物多样性来抑制病虫害的发生，提高农业生态系统的稳定性 104。间作系统可以增强作物对极端天气的抵御能力，并通过改善土壤水分保持能力和为有益昆虫提供栖息地来促进授粉和自然害虫控制 104。
4. 土壤保育技术：
健康的土壤是农业生产的基础，也是增强气候韧性的重要环节。土壤保育技术旨在保护和提升土壤健康，提高土壤对水分的保持能力和养分循环效率。
- 免耕/少耕：减少或避免对土壤的耕作，能够保持土壤结构，减少土壤侵蚀和水分蒸发，增加土壤有机质含量。
- 覆盖作物（Cover Cropping）：在主作物收获后或生长季节期间种植覆盖作物，可以保护土壤免受风蚀和水蚀，增加土壤有机质，改善土壤结构，抑制杂草生长。在欧洲葡萄园中，草地和草本覆盖作物被证明能增强多种调节性生态系统服务，包括水土保持、碳固存和改善水分渗透，从而提高葡萄园在气候胁迫下的韧性 105。
- 有机肥与堆肥施用：增加土壤有机质含量是提高土壤保水能力和缓冲极端温度影响的关键。有机质含量高的土壤能够像海绵一样吸收和储存水分，减缓干旱的影响。非洲撒哈拉以南地区的传统农业农民广泛采用有机肥料和传统有机堆肥作为适应气候变化的策略，以保持土壤整体健康、保持土壤水分和减少二氧化碳排放 106。
- 水土保持措施：在坡地农业中，修建梯田、等高种植、植被篱笆等措施可以有效减缓径流速度，增加水分入渗，减少水土流失，从而保护耕地资源。
这些抗逆型农艺优化技术并非孤立存在，往往需要结合当地的具体气候条件、土壤类型和作物种类进行集成应用，才能发挥最大的减损增效作用。它们是实现可持续农业和应对气候变化挑战的重要组成部分。
5.2 气候智慧型现代农业技术推广
随着科技的进步，一系列气候智慧型现代农业技术正逐步应用于农业生产，这些技术通过优化资源利用、提高生产效率和增强气候韧性，在应对气候变化挑战中发挥着越来越重要的作用。这些技术包括节水灌溉、病虫害绿色防控、农业气象智能预警和精准施肥施药等，其应用效果和成本收益特征值得深入分析。
1. 节水灌溉技术：
节水灌溉是提高农业水资源利用效率的关键技术，对于缓解气候变化带来的水资源短缺问题尤为重要。智能灌溉系统是其中的核心，它利用实时数据、机器学习算法和预测分析来优化灌溉用水，限制资源浪费，并提高作物产量 107。
- 应用效果：智能灌溉技术，如滴灌、喷灌、微喷灌以及基于传感器和物联网（IoT）的精准灌溉系统，能够根据作物需水状况、土壤湿度、天气预报等信息，实现精准的水量供应。研究表明，智能灌溉实践能够平均减少38.2%的灌溉用水和能源消耗，从而带来0.17%至62%的环境效益 108。单次评分结果显示，每吨产品的生命周期环境效益高达13% 108。在某些地中海园艺系统中，精确灌溉可以显著提高水-能源效率，获得经济优势，同时减少温室栽培的环境负担 108。
- 成本收益特征：尽管智能灌溉系统的实施需要前期投资成本，但这些成本可以通过节水和节能所带来的效益抵消 108。长期来看，水资源的节约、作物产量的增加以及劳动力成本的降低，使得智能灌溉系统具有显著的经济回报。例如，对人工智能（AI）智能灌溉系统的成本效益分析表明，特别是在水资源紧张的系统，其效益水平高且显著，对农场盈利能力、私人利益和环境保护都有积极影响 107。此外，减少投资成本和提高水价将进一步增强智能灌溉策略的盈利能力 108。
2. 病虫害绿色防控技术：
绿色防控技术旨在减少化学农药的使用，通过生物防治、物理防治、农业防治和生态调控等手段，实现对病虫害的有效控制，同时保护农业生态环境和农产品质量安全。
- 应用效果：绿色防控技术能够有效降低病虫害对作物的危害，减少因化学农药使用带来的环境污染和食品安全风险。例如，精准控制技术在农业病虫害防治中具有广泛的应用前景 109。生物防治通过引入或保护天敌来控制害虫；物理防治如性信息素诱捕、杀虫灯等；农业防治则通过轮作、选用抗病品种等优化措施；生态调控通过构建健康的农业生态系统来增强作物自身的抗逆性和天敌的保护作用。
- 成本收益特征：推广绿色防控技术可以显著促进农民的收入增长 110。虽然初期可能需要投入一定的技术培训和设施成本，但长期来看，减少农药开支、提高农产品品质和市场竞争力，以及改善生态环境带来的间接效益，使得绿色防控具有良好的经济和社会效益。政府补贴和质量认证也显著促进了农民采用绿色病虫害防治技术 111。机械化施药有助于减少农药使用并提高作物产量，外包农药施用可以减少农药支出，而农户内部使用机械化设备则会增加农药支出，但两者都能提高水稻产量 112。
3. 农业气象智能预警系统：
农业气象智能预警系统利用气象数据、遥感技术、作物模型和人工智能，对极端天气事件（如干旱、洪涝、霜冻、高温热浪）以及病虫害发生发展进行预测和预警，为农业生产提供决策支持。
- 应用效果：该系统能够提供及时、准确的气象信息，帮助农民提前做好防范措施，如调整播种计划、加强田间管理、及时灌溉或排水，从而有效降低气候灾害造成的损失。例如，全球综合干旱监测和预测系统（GIDMaPS）提供了基于多重干旱指标的干旱信息，包括近实时监测和季节性概率预测模块，这对于早期预警、采取预防措施和规划减缓策略至关重要 113。利用遥感热红外图像估算蒸散量的蒸发胁迫指数（ESI）也能够为农业系统干旱影响的早期预警提供及时信息 114。
- 成本收益特征：农业气象智能预警系统的投入主要体现在基础设施建设、数据获取和分析能力上。通过减少灾害损失和提高生产效率，该系统能够带来显著的经济效益。对农户而言，及时获取预警信息能够避免或减少因天气灾害造成的经济损失，例如减少因干旱导致的灌溉成本或因洪涝导致的作物减产。
4. 精准施肥施药技术：
精准施肥施药技术基于物联网（IoT）、大数据和人工智能（AI）等技术，通过对土壤、作物和环境状况的实时监测，实现对肥料和农药的精确管理，避免过量使用，提高利用效率。
- 应用效果：精准施肥可以根据作物不同生长阶段的营养需求和土壤养分状况，定量、定位施用肥料，提高肥料利用率，减少养分流失和环境污染。精准施药则能根据病虫害的发生区域和程度，有针对性地喷洒农药，减少农药用量，降低对环境和人体健康的危害。这些技术通过优化投入品管理，既能保证作物产量，又能降低生产成本，提高农产品质量。将IoT、大数据和AI技术整合到农业中，能够有效监测和减轻农业碳排放，推动气候智慧型农业和可持续农业实践 115。
- 成本收益特征：精准施肥施药技术的前期投入包括传感器、无人机、智能农机设备以及数据分析平台等。虽然初期投资较高，但通过节约肥料、农药成本，提高作物产量和质量，减少环境治理费用，能够带来可观的长期经济效益。例如，利用机器学习（ML）算法进行精准农业，可以提高监测排放、运营效率和环境合规性 115。在巴西乳品农场，农民表示“可获得的技术支持”和“投资回报率”（ROI）是采用精准技术最重要的决策标准 116。
综上所述，气候智慧型现代农业技术的推广应用，是应对气候变化、提升全球粮食安全的关键路径。这些技术通过提高资源利用效率、减少生产损失、优化环境表现，能够为农业系统带来显著的减损增效作用。然而，技术的落地和广泛应用仍面临成本、技术普及和农民接受度等挑战，需要政府、科研机构和企业等多方协同推动。
5.3 典型区域适应性技术实践案例
适应性农业技术的推广和应用在全球范围内呈现出多样化的实践模式，不同的气候带和农业系统根据其独特的挑战和资源禀赋，发展出具有区域特色的适应策略。本节将结合亚洲稻麦轮作区、非洲旱作农业区和拉丁美洲热带种植区的典型案例，总结不同气候带适应性农业技术的推广经验。
1. 亚洲稻麦轮作区：
亚洲是全球最大的粮食生产和消费区域之一，其中水稻-小麦轮作系统是南亚和东南亚许多国家重要的粮食生产模式。该区域面临的主要气候挑战包括干旱、洪涝、高温热浪以及病虫害扩散，尤其是在季风气候影响下，降水变率大。
- 经验总结：
- 气候智能型作物品种：在亚洲，特别是巴基斯坦，水稻和小麦这两种主要粮食作物的产量在2040-2069年间预计将分别减少15.2-17.2%和12-14.1% 117。为了应对这一挑战，育种科学家们致力于开发耐旱、耐热和耐涝的抗逆品种。例如，通过选育能适应短期淹水或在较高温度下仍能维持较高产量的水稻品种，以及抗旱性强、生育期灵活的小麦品种。
- 农艺管理优化：调整播种时间、优化种植密度、改进施肥和灌溉技术是该区域重要的适应策略 117。例如，在巴基斯坦的水稻-小麦轮作系统案例研究中，通过调整播种时间、种植密度、氮肥施用和灌溉措施，有助于提高在气候变化情景下的整体生产力和盈利能力 117。此外，免耕或少耕技术、秸秆覆盖等土壤保护措施也有助于提高土壤水分保持能力，减少土壤侵蚀。
- 水资源高效利用：由于水资源短缺日益严峻，推广节水灌溉技术（如水稻的间歇灌溉）变得尤为重要。在南亚，降雨收集等技术被视为重要的适应措施，能够为农作物提供灌溉用水，以应对气候冲击 118119。
- 早期预警与信息服务：利用农业气象智能预警系统，为农民提供及时准确的气候信息和病虫害预警，帮助他们做出更明智的种植决策。印度的研究表明，更好的农业推广和气候信息来源能够增强农户的适应能力，特别是对于土壤和水资源保护、作物保险和园艺种植等知识密集型适应策略 120。
2. 非洲旱作农业区：
撒哈拉以南非洲地区以旱作农业为主，是全球最脆弱的粮食不安全区域之一。该地区主要面临长期干旱、降水不确定性和土壤退化等问题。
- 经验总结：
- 雨水收集与水土保持：在埃塞俄比亚等非洲国家，雨水收集被认为是构建应对气候冲击韧性的重要一步 118119。尤其是在利姆波波省（Limpopo Province）的农村社区，雨水收集实践被63.8%的农户用于增加生活用水，尽管用于饮用的较少。研究显示，农户的认知、年龄和教育水平与雨水收集实践的采纳呈显著正相关 121。此外，修建梯田、等高种植等传统的水土保持措施，以及推广耐旱作物品种（如高粱、谷子）和抗旱性更强的玉米品种，对于提高产量和稳定性至关重要 117。
- 气候智能型农业（CSA）：CSA在非洲旨在通过适应性强的机构和技术，提高低收入生产者和消费者的抵御能力 122。实践案例包括采用“气候智能村”方法，推广气候智能型技术和实践，如耐旱作物品种、高效灌溉系统和有机肥料的使用 122。此外，利用气候信息服务（CIS）来更好地管理气候变异性和极端事件，如早期预警系统和决策支持系统，对于降低农业风险至关重要 117122。
- 农林复合系统与作物多样化：在尼日利亚等国，农林复合经营和作物多样化被农民视为重要的气候变化适应策略，有助于增加农产品种类，降低单一作物歉收的风险，并改善土壤肥力 123。豆科植物的种植、作物轮作以及混养牲畜系统也为应对气候变化提供了机会 117。
- 改进的农业推广服务：增强农业推广服务和提高农民对气候变化信息的可及性，能够显著提升非洲小农户的适应能力。对埃塞俄比亚的评估表明，推广机构在帮助农民应对气候变化方面发挥着重要作用 122。
3. 拉丁美洲热带种植区：
拉丁美洲的热带种植区，如巴西、墨西哥等，拥有丰富的农业资源，但同样面临高温、极端降水、病虫害传播以及土地利用变化带来的挑战。
- 经验总结：
- 适应性育种与生物技术：利用生物技术开发适应当地气候特点的作物品种，例如，开发能够耐受高湿高温、抗病虫害（如对锈病具有抗性）的咖啡、可可、香蕉等热带经济作物和玉米、水稻等粮食作物。
- 可持续土地管理：推广生态友好型农业实践，如有机农业、保护性耕作和农林复合经营，以减少土壤侵蚀、提高土壤肥力、增加生物多样性，从而增强农田生态系统的气候韧性。
- 整合气候信息与风险管理：将气候预测信息整合到农业生产决策中，例如调整种植时间、选择合适的作物品种。在墨西哥，气候信息和保险产品有助于农民管理气候风险。
- 病虫害综合管理（IPM）：鉴于热带地区病虫害发生频率和多样性较高，推广IPM策略，通过生物防治、物理防治和合理使用农药相结合，减少化学农药依赖，降低环境风险。
- 多元化农业生产系统：促进农牧结合、渔农结合等多元化生产系统，例如在坦桑尼亚北部，传统的畜牧生产系统正在向混合农业转变，以应对气候变化和人口增长带来的压力 124。这不仅提高了农业系统的韧性，也为农户提供了多样化的收入来源，增强了抵御风险的能力。
总的来说，不同气候带的适应性农业技术实践，虽然具体内容有所差异，但都强调了通过技术创新、农艺管理优化、水资源高效利用、早期预警系统以及政策支持等多种手段，共同提升农业系统应对气候变化的韧性。这些经验为未来全球范围内的适应性农业发展提供了宝贵的借鉴。
6. 提升粮食系统气候韧性的政策建议
面对气候变化对全球粮食安全的严峻挑战，单一国家或区域层面的努力往往不足以应对其系统性、跨国界的特点。因此，构建全球协同治理机制，辅以国家层面的政策支持和针对小农户的适配性帮扶，是提升粮食系统气候韧性的必然选择。
6.1 全球协同治理机制构建
全球协同治理机制旨在通过国际合作，应对气候变化对粮食安全的跨国影响，尤其是在气候减排, 粮食应急调配和农业技术转移等方面，以降低粮食安全脆弱区域的风险。
1. 跨国家的气候减排协同：
气候变化的根源在于温室气体排放，而减排行动具有全球公共产品属性。各国需要加强合作，共同推动《巴黎协定》目标的实现，即将全球平均气温升幅控制在工业化前水平以上2℃之内，并努力将升温限制在1.5℃以内。
- 统一的减排框架与核查机制：建立全球统一的温室气体排放核算标准和透明的核查机制，确保各国减排承诺的有效落实。这包括对农业排放（如甲烷和氧化亚氮）的监测和报告，并探索激励机制鼓励低碳农业实践。
- 发达国家对发展中国家的减排支持：发达国家应履行其历史责任，向发展中国家提供资金、技术和能力建设支持，帮助其在发展经济的同时实现低碳转型。这不仅有助于全球减排，也能避免发展中国家在追求粮食安全过程中走高排放的老路。
- 农业减排潜力挖掘：将农业部门纳入国家自主贡献（NDCs）的减排目标，并通过推广气候智能型农业实践（如减少化肥使用、优化土地利用管理、发展循环农业等）来挖掘农业自身的减排潜力。例如，通过改善作物和土壤管理，以及更好地管理牲畜饲料和粪便，可以减少甲烷和一氧化二氮的排放。
2. 粮食应急调配机制：
极端天气事件和气候灾害导致的区域性粮食危机需要高效的全球应急响应机制。
- 战略储备体系：参照现有区域性储备，如东盟+3大米应急储备（APTERR），并结合亚洲国家维持紧急粮食储备的实践 125，建立或强化全球及区域层面的战略粮食储备体系 126。该体系应具备快速响应能力，能够在灾害发生时迅速向受灾国调配粮食，以稳定市场、避免人道主义危机。
- 信息共享与预警系统：建立健全全球粮食市场信息共享平台和气候灾害早期预警系统，及时发布粮食供需状况、价格波动和潜在风险，帮助各国提前做好应对准备。例如，联合国粮农组织（FAO）的全球信息及预警系统（GIEWS）可进一步强化其数据整合和分析能力。
- 国际援助与合作框架：完善国际人道主义援助协调机制，确保粮食援助的及时性、有效性和公平性。这包括简化通关手续、优化物流路径、加强援助物资的质量监管，并确保援助与受援国的长期发展目标相符。例如，尼日尔在应对气候冲击中，展示了政府和项目实施者致力于通过多部门协同来减少粮食不安全和增强抵御气候冲击的决心 127。
3. 农业技术转移与创新合作：
气候变化对农业的影响因地而异，需要因地制宜的适应技术。发达国家拥有先进的农业技术和研发能力，应与发展中国家加强技术转移与创新合作，帮助其提升气候适应能力。
- “创新合作”取代“技术转让”：超越传统的“技术转让”模式，倡导“创新合作”框架 128。这意味着不仅仅是将成熟技术直接复制到发展中国家，更重要的是建立公平的伙伴关系，发展当地的创新能力，共同研发和适应适合当地生态和社会经济条件的气候智能型农业技术。
- 关键技术的普及与推广：优先将抗逆作物品种、节水灌溉技术、精准农业技术、病虫害绿色防控技术以及农业气象智能预警系统等关键适应性技术向发展中国家推广 129130。这需要通过建立技术示范区、提供技术培训、编写易于理解的推广材料等方式。例如，通过创新性的“气候韧性农业企业农民田间学校”模式，整合了农民田间学校、气候田间学校、气候智能型农业和当地传统知识，有效提升了东非地区小农户的适应行为和韧性 131。
- 知识产权与资金支持：在技术转移过程中，需要妥善处理知识产权问题，确保发展中国家能够以可负担的方式获取和使用核心技术。同时，设立专项基金，支持发展中国家进行适应性农业技术的研发、推广和能力建设。
- 建立国际农业研究合作平台：参考政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的模式，建议建立一个“国际粮食、营养和农业专题小组（IPFNA）” 132。该平台可以汇集全球顶尖专家，定期评估气候变化对粮食安全的影响，并提出基于科学证据的适应和减缓策略，促进全球农业科技创新和知识共享。
4. 健全多边治理机构：
现有全球治理体系在应对气候变化与粮食安全方面存在不足 132。需要强化和改革联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）、世界粮食计划署（WFP）等现有国际机构的作用，确保其在政策协调、信息发布和援助实施方面的领导力。同时，鼓励区域组织（如东盟、太平洋岛屿论坛、南亚区域合作联盟）在区域层面加强气候变化和粮食安全政策的协调与实施，并积极与全球伙伴合作 133。例如，改革粮食安全委员会（CFS）及其高级别专家小组，使其在提供科学咨询和推动政策协同方面发挥更大作用 132。
6.2 国家层面政策支持体系建设
国家层面的政策支持对于提升本国粮食系统的气候韧性至关重要，它需要一套多维度、系统性的政策体系，包括农业基础设施的投入、农业保险的完善、种源研发的支持以及水资源保护的优化，以构建一个更能抵御气候变化冲击的农业生产体系。
1. 农业基础设施投入：
强健的农业基础设施是应对气候变化、保障粮食生产的基础。政府应加大对关键农业基础设施的投资力度。
- 灌溉与排水系统：气候变化导致降水模式愈发不确定，干旱和洪涝风险并存。因此，建设和维护高效的灌溉系统（包括渠道、泵站、管网等）和排水设施至关重要。这不仅能确保作物在干旱时期获得充足水源，也能有效应对极端降水造成的涝灾。例如，通过投资于智能灌溉技术，可以显著提高水资源利用效率，减少农业用水浪费 134。在一些高风险地区，对现有水利设施进行改造升级，使其具备应对极端水文事件的能力，如加高堤坝、扩建水库、完善排涝管网等。
- 仓储与物流系统：气候变化可能导致区域性粮食供应波动，高效的仓储和物流系统能够平抑这种波动。政府应投资建设现代化、抗灾能力强的粮食仓库，并完善冷链物流系统，减少粮食在储存和运输环节的损失。这对于保障粮食在不同季节和地区间的有效调配至关重要，特别是对于易腐烂的农产品。
- 道路与能源基础设施：改善农村地区的道路网络，确保农产品能够及时运出，农业物资能够顺利运入。同时，为农业生产提供稳定可靠的能源供应，特别是推广可再生能源在农业生产中的应用，降低对传统能源的依赖，减少碳排放。
2. 农业保险完善：
农业保险是转移气候风险、保障农民收入的重要手段，对于提升农业生产的韧性具有不可替代的作用。
- 扩大覆盖范围和险种：政府应扩大农业保险的覆盖范围，鼓励更多农户，特别是小农户参与。同时，开发更多针对气候变化的创新型保险产品，如天气指数保险（基于降水、温度等天气指数触发赔付），可以有效应对干旱、洪涝、高温等灾害造成的损失。天气指数保险因其简单、透明且赔付速度快的特点，特别适合小农户，减少了传统农业保险面临的定损困难和道德风险。
- 提高补贴力度和优化赔付机制：通过财政补贴降低农户购买保险的成本，提高参保积极性。同时，优化赔付机制，确保赔付及时、合理，真正起到保障农民收入和再生产能力的作用。例如，在西非，发展微型金融和保险计划被认为是应对气候变化适应策略的重要组成部分 135。
- 鼓励市场化运作：在政府引导和支持下，鼓励保险公司开发差异化、个性化的农业保险产品，并引入再保险机制，分散风险。
3. 种源研发支持：
优良的种源是农业生产的核心，也是应对气候变化影响的战略性资源。
- 抗逆品种培育：加大对耐高温、耐干旱、耐盐碱、抗病虫害等抗逆作物品种的研发投入，鼓励利用现代生物技术（如基因编辑、分子标记辅助育种）加速育种进程 136。例如，对小谷物等抗逆性强的作物进行基因增强研究，以解决食品和营养安全问题 137。非洲特有作物如“Enset”（非洲香蕉，一种重要的淀粉作物），因其抗旱性强，可在多种条件下生长，被认为是埃塞俄比亚乃至非洲地区潜在的粮食安全作物，需要更多研究支持其种质资源特性和育种开发 138。木薯（Cassava）因其在恶劣生长条件下的抗逆性，也被认为是南非农业缓解气候风险和替代进口的重要作物 139。
- 种质资源库建设与管理：建立健全国家级种质资源库，收集、保存和评估各种作物的遗传多样性，为抗逆育种提供丰富的基因资源 136140。确保种质资源的可持续利用和信息共享。
- 支持基础研究与应用研究：鼓励科研机构和企业开展针对气候变化下作物生理生态响应机制的基础研究，以及针对具体农业生产问题的应用研究，以科技创新驱动农业适应气候变化。
4. 水资源保护与高效利用政策：
鉴于水资源在农业中的关键地位，政府需要制定并实施更加严格和高效的水资源保护与管理政策。
- 水资源综合管理：实施流域尺度的水资源综合管理，协调农业、工业、生活用水之间的关系，确保农业用水优先权和可持续性。通过立法和政策手段，限制地下水过度抽取，促进雨水收集、中水回用和非常规水资源的利用 141。
- 水权交易与水价改革：探索建立水权交易市场，通过市场机制优化水资源配置。逐步推行农业水价改革，激励农民节约用水，鼓励采用节水灌溉技术 134。在水资源稀缺地区，水价改革可以促使农业部门向更高效、高附加值的作物结构调整。
- 水土保持与生态修复：加强坡耕地水土流失治理，保护河流源头和湿地生态系统，增加水源涵养能力。例如，通过退耕还林还草、生态移民等政策，修复脆弱生态环境。
- 监测与预警能力建设：强化水文气象监测网络建设，提高水资源预测预警能力，为农业用水管理提供科学依据。
通过上述政策体系的建设与实施，国家能够有效提升自身粮食系统的气候韧性，保障在气候变化背景下的粮食生产稳定和国家粮食安全。
6.3 小农户适配性帮扶政策设计
小农户在全球农业生产中占据主导地位，尤其是在发展中国家，他们是主要的粮食生产者，也是气候变化影响下最脆弱的群体之一。由于其资源有限、技术落后、市场议价能力弱等特点，气候变化带来的极端天气、病虫害等问题对其生计和粮食安全构成严重威胁。因此，设计和实施适配性帮扶政策，增强小农户的气候韧性，对于维护全球粮食安全至关重要。
1. 技术推广与培训：
提升小农户应对气候变化能力的核心在于赋能其掌握和应用适应性农业技术。
- 定制化技术培训：针对不同区域、不同作物类型的小农户，提供定制化的气候智能型农业技术培训，包括抗逆品种选择、节水灌溉技术、土壤健康管理、病虫害绿色防控等。这些培训应采用易于理解和实践的方式，例如，乌干达、加纳和孟加拉国的案例研究表明，小农户正因观测到气候和环境变化而改变农业实践，但女性农民由于经济或资源限制，以及在获取信息和推广服务方面受男性主导，适应能力较弱，这突出需要针对性的培训 142。
- 强化农技推广服务：增加农技推广人员的数量和质量，确保他们能够深入农村，为小农户提供及时、专业的指导。利用移动技术和数字平台，将农业技术知识和最佳实践传递给更多小农户，例如，肯尼亚的“硅谷”现象显示，数字农业工具已从“通用型”信息共享向“农场特定型”咨询服务发展，通过卫星图像和传感器提供诊断、预测和规范性建议 143。
- 引入创新模式：结合当地传统知识与现代农业科学，加强小农户的能力建设，包括创新、学习和预测能力，以应对气候变化对农业系统的影响。例如，通过加强灾害和预警系统、气候适应型基础设施、公共农业推广系统以及非正式安全网络和社交网络，可以建立气候韧性农业系统 144。
2. 生产补贴与农业保险：
经济支持是保障小农户生产积极性、降低气候风险影响的关键。
- 定向生产补贴：对采用气候智能型农业技术（如种植抗旱品种、建设节水设施等）的小农户提供直接的财政补贴，鼓励其进行长期投资。这有助于弥补小农户在转型初期可能面临的经济压力。
- 普惠型农业保险：推广和完善面向小农户的农业保险产品。政府应加大对小农户参保的保费补贴力度，降低其经济负担，以提高农民的参与率 145146。例如，在印度尼西亚西爪哇的农村地区，小农户对农业生产成本保险的平均支付意愿为每公顷每种植季30,358印尼盾（约合2.25美元），这比当前保费低16% 145。政府80%的保费补贴大大降低了农民的参与门槛，但仍需进一步提高参与率 145。
- 金融支持与信贷可及性：提高小农户获得低息贷款和适应性气候融资的机会，支持其购买抗逆种子、节水设备等。这需要金融机构开发符合小农户特点的金融产品，并简化贷款申请流程 147148。
3. 气象信息与早期预警服务：
及时、准确的气象信息和预警对于小农户进行生产决策、规避风险至关重要。
- 提升信息可及性：确保气象信息能够通过多种渠道（如广播、手机短信、社区会议、数字平台）及时传递给小农户，并以他们易于理解的语言和格式呈现 149150151。研究表明，获取气候信息服务能够显著提升小农户的气候智能型农业采纳率 149。
- 强化早期预警系统：建立健全针对小农户的区域性早期预警系统，预测极端天气事件（如干旱、洪涝、高温热浪、霜冻等）和病虫害爆发，并提供具体的应对建议 151152。例如，在加纳西北地区，早期预警与气候准备度呈正相关，且先前气候事件的经验（如干旱、洪水）也显著影响农民的准备度 151。埃塞俄比亚的案例研究也强调，提供气候变化信息和推广服务对农民选择适应措施至关重要 150。
- 灾害风险评估与规划：协助小农户进行农场层面的气候风险评估，并制定个性化的灾害应对预案，例如如何调整种植计划、储备物资、疏散牲畜等。
4. 市场链接与价值链强化：
增强小农户的市场参与度，提升其在价值链中的地位，是实现可持续生计和增强韧性的关键。
- 支持农产品加工与品牌建设：鼓励和支持小农户进行农产品的初级加工和品牌建设，提升产品附加值，减少因市场波动造成的损失。
- 建立稳定的供销关系：促进小农户与采购商、零售商建立长期稳定的合作关系，通过订单农业、产销对接等模式，保障农产品的销售渠道和合理价格。例如，通过将有机农业与社区支持农业（CSA）计划联系起来，增强市场准入和价值链发展，可以使传统农业更具盈利性和可持续性 153。
- 基础设施与物流改善：改善农村地区的道路、冷藏、加工设施等基础设施，降低小农户的运输和销售成本，提高农产品的市场竞争力。
- 合作社发展：鼓励和扶持小农户组建农业合作社，通过集体行动提升其议价能力、获取信贷和技术服务的机会，并共同应对市场风险。有研究强调，功能完善的农民合作社在促进小农户采纳CSA创新方面发挥着关键作用 154。
通过这些多层次、系统性的政策设计，可以有效解决小农户在资源、技术、信息和市场方面的短板，帮助他们更好地适应气候变化，从而在保障自身生计的同时，为全球粮食安全做出贡献。
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参考文献
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James E. Hansen, S. Lebedeff
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2GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGEOpenAlex
James E. Hansen, Reto Rüedy, M. Sato, et al.
(GISS) analysis of global surface temperature change, compare alternative analyses, and address questions about perception and reality of global warming. Satellite‐observed night lights are used to identify measurement stations located in extreme darkness and adjust temperature trends of urban and periurban stations for nonclimatic factors, verifying that urban effects on analyzed global change are small. Because the GISS analysis combines available sea surface temperature records with meteorological station measurements, we test alternative choices for the ocean data, showing that global temperature change is sensitive to estimated temperature change in polar regions where observations are limited. We use simple 12 month (and n × 12) running means to improve the information content in our temperature graphs. Contrary to a popular misconception, the rate of warming has not declined. Global temperature is rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior 2 decades, despite year‐to‐year fluctuations associated with the El Niño‐La Niña cycle of tropical ocean temperature. Record high global 12 month running mean temperature for the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010. Citation: Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo (2010), Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345. 1.
3Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influenceOpenAlex
Piers Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, et al.
Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.
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J. E. Bagley, Ankur R. Desai, Paul A. Dirmeyer, et al.
The majority of the world's food production capability is inextricably tied to global precipitation patterns. Changes in moisture availability—whether from changes in climate from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or those induced by land cover change (LCC)—can have profound impacts on food production. In this study, we examined the patterns of evaporative sources that contribute to moisture availability over five major global food producing regions (breadbaskets), and the potential for land cover change to influence these moisture sources by altering surface evapotranspiration. For a range of LCC scenarios we estimated the impact of altered surface fluxes on crop moisture availability and potential yield using a simplified linear hydrologic model and a state-of-the-art ecosystem and crop model. All the breadbasket regions were found to be susceptible to reductions in moisture owing to perturbations in evaporative source (ES) from LCC, with reductions in moisture availability ranging from 7 to 17% leading to potential crop yield reductions of 1–17%, which are magnitudes comparable to the changes anticipated with greenhouse warming. The sensitivity of these reductions in potential crop yield to varying magnitudes of LCC was not consistent among regions. Two variables explained most of these differences: the first was the magnitude of the potential moisture availability change, with regions exhibiting greater reductions in moisture availability also tending to exhibit greater changes in potential yield; the second was the soil moisture within crop root zones. Regions with mean growing season soil moisture fractions of saturation >0.5 typically had reduced impacts on potential crop yield. Our results indicate the existence of LCC thresholds that have the capability to create moisture shortages adversely affecting crop yields in major food producing regions, which could lead to future food supply disruptions in the absence of increased irrigation or other forms of water management.
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Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, et al.
Abstract. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lived potent greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance that has been accumulating in the atmosphere since the preindustrial period. The mole fraction of atmospheric N2O has increased by nearly 25 % from 270 ppb (parts per billion) in 1750 to 336 ppb in 2022, with the fastest annual growth rate since 1980 of more than 1.3 ppb yr−1 in both 2020 and 2021. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6), the relative contribution of N2O to the total enhanced effective radiative forcing of greenhouse gases was 6.4 % for 1750–2022. As a core component of our global greenhouse gas assessments coordinated by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), our global N2O budget incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks and accounts for the interactions between nitrogen additions and the biogeochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (BU: inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, and process-based land and ocean modeling) and top-down (TD: atmospheric measurement-based inversion) approaches. We provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks in 21 natural and anthropogenic categories in 18 regions between 1980 and 2020. We estimate that total annual anthropogenic N2O emissions have increased 40 % (or 1.9 Tg N yr−1) in the past 4 decades (1980–2020). Direct agricultural emissions in 2020 (3.9 Tg N yr−1, best estimate) represent the large majority of anthropogenic emissions, followed by other direct anthropogenic sources, including fossil fuel and industry, waste and wastewater, and biomass burning (2.1 Tg N yr−1), and indirect anthropogenic sources (1.3 Tg N yr−1) . For the year 2020, our best estimate of total BU emissions for natural and anthropogenic sources was 18.5 (lower–upper bounds: 10.6–27.0) Tg N yr−1, close to our TD estimate of 17.0 (16.6–17.4) Tg N yr−1. For the 2010–2019 period, the annual BU decadal-average emissions for both natural and anthropogenic sources were 18.2 (10.6–25.9) Tg N yr−1 and TD emissions were 17.4 (15.8–19.20) Tg N yr−1. The once top emitter Europe has reduced its emissions by 31 % since the 1980s, while those of emerging economies have grown, making China the top emitter since the 2010s. The observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded projected levels under all scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions. To evaluate mitigation efforts and contribute to the Global Stocktake of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we propose the establishment of a global network for monitoring and modeling N2O from the surface through to the stratosphere. The data presented in this work can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/RQ8P-2Z4R (Tian et al., 2023).
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Brian C. O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, et al.
Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.
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Karl E. Taylor, Ronald J. Stouffer, Gerald A. Meehl
The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.
9ChatClimate: Grounding conversational AI in climate scienceOpenAlex
Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Dominik Stammbach, Veruska Muccione, et al.
Abstract Large Language Models have made remarkable progress in question-answering tasks, but challenges like hallucination and outdated information persist. These issues are especially critical in domains like climate change, where timely access to reliable information is vital. One solution is granting these models access to external, scientifically accurate sources to enhance their knowledge and reliability. Here, we enhance GPT-4 by providing access to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6), the most comprehensive, up-to-date, and reliable source in this domain (refer to the ’Data Availability’ section). We present our conversational AI prototype, available at www.chatclimate.ai , and demonstrate its ability to answer challenging questions in three different setups: (1) GPT-4, (2) ChatClimate, which relies exclusively on IPCC AR6 reports, and (3) Hybrid ChatClimate, which utilizes IPCC AR6 reports with in-house GPT-4 knowledge. The evaluation of answers by experts show that the hybrid ChatClimate AI assistant provide more accurate responses, highlighting the effectiveness of our solution.
10The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300OpenAlex
Malte Meinshausen, Steven J. Smith, Katherine Calvin, et al.
We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750–2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005–2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected ‘best-estimate’ global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example, the lower RCP2.6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO2 emissions), leading to CO2 concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to go back to ECP4.5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the 21st century followed the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and ECPs.
11Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impactsOpenAlex
Mikhail A. Semenov, Pierre Stratonovitch
Multi-model ensembles of climate predictions constructed by running several global climate models for a common set of experiments are available for impact assessment of climate change. Multi-model ensembles emphasize the uncertainty in climate predictions resulting from structural differences in the global climate models as well as uncertainty due to variations in initial conditions or model parameterisations. This paper describes a methodology of using multi-model ensembles from global climate models for impact assessments which require local-scale climate scenarios. The approach is based on the use of a weather generator capable of generating the localscale daily climate scenarios used as an input by many process-based impact models. A new version of the LARS-WG weather generator, described in the paper, incorporates climate predictions from 15 climate models from the multi-model ensemble used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The use of the AR4 multi-model ensemble allows assessment of the range of uncertainty in the impacts of climate change resulting from the uncertainty in predications of climate. As an example, the impact of climate change on the probability of heat stress during flowering of wheat, which can result in significant yield losses, was assessed using local-scale climate scenarios in conjunction with a wheat simulation model at 4 European locations. The exploitation of much larger perturbed physics ensembles is also discussed.
12Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targetsOpenAlex
Michael Clark, Nina G. G. Domingo, Kimberly K Colgan, et al.
The Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the increase in global temperature to 1.5° or 2°C above preindustrial levels requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Although reducing emissions from fossil fuels is essential for meeting this goal, other sources of emissions may also preclude its attainment. We show that even if fossil fuel emissions were immediately halted, current trends in global food systems would prevent the achievement of the 1.5°C target and, by the end of the century, threaten the achievement of the 2°C target. Meeting the 1.5°C target requires rapid and ambitious changes to food systems as well as to all nonfood sectors. The 2°C target could be achieved with less-ambitious changes to food systems, but only if fossil fuel and other nonfood emissions are eliminated soon.
14Recent Climate Observations Compared to ProjectionsOpenAlex
Stefan Rahmstorf, Anny Cazenave, John Church, et al.
We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.
15Implementation of FAIR principles in the IPCC: the WGI AR6 Atlas repositoryOpenAlex
Maialen Iturbide, Jesús Fernández, José Manuel Gutiérrez, et al.
The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted the FAIR Guiding Principles. We present the Atlas chapter of Working Group I (WGI) as a test case. We describe the application of the FAIR principles in the Atlas, the challenges faced during its implementation, and those that remain for the future. We introduce the open source repository resulting from this process, including coding (e.g., annotated Jupyter notebooks), data provenance, and some aggregated datasets used in some figures in the Atlas chapter and its interactive companion (the Interactive Atlas), open to scrutiny by the scientific community and the general public. We describe the informal pilot review conducted on this repository to gather recommendations that led to significant improvements. Finally, a working example illustrates the re-use of the repository resources to produce customized regional information, extending the Interactive Atlas products and running the code interactively in a web browser using Jupyter notebooks.
16Changes in China's Food Self-Sufficiency Rate in the Context of a Changing Dietary StructureOpenAlex
Xiangzheng Deng, Guirui Yu, Yujie Liu, et al.
This paper explores the impacts of the evolution of the dietary structure of the population on national food security using the food self-sufficiency rate under various statistical dimensions and simulate various food security scenarios for China in the medium- and long-term future. This study indicates that China’s rapid economic and social development and the continuous improvement in people’s living standards appears to be declining in the food self-sufficiency rate. The analysis regarding the factors influencing the food self-sufficiency rate revealed that the improved dietary structure, involving an increase in animal-based food product consumption, has led to a decrease in China’s food self-sufficiency rate. It concludes that the dietary structure is likely to continue to move toward increased consumption of animal-based food products in China for the future. The research results will assist decision-makers in formulating scientific food self-sufficiency rate targets and food security strategies
17Linking global crop and livestock consumption to local production hotspotsOpenAlex
Zhongxiao Sun, Laura Scherer, Arnold Tukker, et al.
International trade plays a critical role in global food security, with global consumption having highly localized environmental impacts. It has been difficult to gain insights into these effects due to the diversity of food production, and complexity of supply chains in international trade. We present a Spatially-explicit Multi-Regional Input-Output (SMRIO) model which couples primary crops and livestock at a high spatial resolution with a global Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) model. We then identify hotspots (the most significant production regions) for primary crops and livestock driven by international consumption. We present the method and data behind this approach, and provide illustrative case studies for Indonesian palm oil and Brazilian soy and beef production. Regionally, China is the largest primary crop consumer, while the EU28 is the largest livestock consumer. Primary crops and livestock hotspots are highly unequal, and the embodied primary crops and livestock for high-income countries are distributed over larger areas when compared to lower-income countries since high-income countries have more numerous trade links. Identified hotspots could allow for increased cooperation between consumers (high-income countries) and producers (lower-income countries) to improve sustainability programs for global food security.
18Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing CountriesOpenAlex
Vasilii Erokhin, Gao Tianming
The stability of food supply chains is crucial to the food security of people around the world. Since the beginning of 2020, this stability has been undergoing one of the most vigorous pressure tests ever due to the COVID-19 outbreak. From a mere health issue, the pandemic has turned into an economic threat to food security globally in the forms of lockdowns, economic decline, food trade restrictions, and rising food inflation. It is safe to assume that the novel health crisis has badly struck the least developed and developing economies, where people are particularly vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition. However, due to the recency of the COVID-19 problem, the impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on food insecurity have remained scantily explored. In this study, the authors attempted to bridge this gap by revealing interactions between the food security status of people and the dynamics of COVID-19 cases, food trade, food inflation, and currency volatilities. The study was performed in the cases of 45 developing economies distributed to three groups by the level of income. The consecutive application of the autoregressive distributed lag method, Yamamoto's causality test, and variance decomposition analysis allowed the authors to find the food insecurity effects of COVID-19 to be more perceptible in upper-middle-income economies than in the least developed countries. In the latter, food security risks attributed to the emergence of the health crisis were mainly related to economic access to adequate food supply (food inflation), whereas in higher-income developing economies, availability-sided food security risks (food trade restrictions and currency depreciation) were more prevalent. The approach presented in this paper contributes to the establishment of a methodology framework that may equip decision-makers with up-to-date estimations of health crisis effects on economic parameters of food availability and access to staples in food-insecure communities.
19Systematic review on ensuring the global food security and covid-19 pandemic resilient food systems: towards accomplishing sustainable development goals targetsOpenAlex
Keerththana Kumareswaran, Guttila Yugantha Jayasinghe
Covid-19, one of the most critical and widespread global pandemics, has resulted in extraordinary risk corollaries engulfing millions of people's lives and has caused an unprecedented economic downturn while amplifying food insecurity. A systematic review of 132 scientific communications was performed over a 15-year period, using articles from the ScienceDirect and Web of Science databases (2006-2021). In addition, 24 policy briefs, country papers, and publications from the UN, WHO, FAO, and OECD were cited. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review of existing literature on the adverse effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on agricultural food systems, as well as potential strategies for building robust, resilient, and sustainable food systems to ensure global food security, safety, and endeavors regarding future global emergencies, as well as new research policies while achieving SDG targets. This would fill a research gap while also having long-term implications for health, agricultural, and food resilience policy development in a rapidly changing world. Covid-19 demonstrates how human, animal, and environmental health are all interconnected, emphasizing the need for one health legislation and a paradigm shift in planetary health. Furthermore, it identifies potential mechanisms for rebuilding better systems by shifting priorities toward policy coherence, innovative food system governance, re-engineering market access, and nexus thinking in the food system approach. According to our findings, the COVID-19 posed unavoidable impediments to achieving SDG targets for food security and household poverty.
20Food Security and the COVID-19 Crisis from a Consumer Buying Behaviour Perspective—The Case of BangladeshOpenAlex
Mohammad Fazle Rabbi, Judit Oláh, József Popp, et al.
Since COVID-19 was confirmed in Bangladesh in March 2020, the government have enacted stringent measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, which has had a significant impact on people's lives. Food consumption habits of consumers have shifted as a result of declining grocery shopping frequency, negative income shock, and food prices shooting up. This paper aims to explore Bangladeshi consumers' buying behaviour in association with the stress generated from a food supply shortage during the COVID-19 pandemic and the post-outbreak perception of the food industry, using a dataset with 540 online samples collected between July and August 2021. A two-stage cluster sampling method and self-administrated questionnaire techniques were adopted for collecting the data during the third wave of COVID-19. Using partial least squares path modelling (PLS-PM) and multivariate multiple ordered logit regression (MVORD) to reveal the pertinent structure between all the blocks, this study provides two key findings. First, a higher intensity of COVID-19 impact translates into higher food stress associated with income reduction and higher food prices. Second, food stress directly affects consumer buying and consumption behaviour. We strongly recommend connecting consumers with local producers and collective use of shared warehouses through institutions, policies, and reforms to prevent disruption in the food supply chain and to keep food prices stable. Additionally, food producers, distributors, stakeholders, and policy planners should strengthen the food supply chain to stabilize food security.
21Aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize in Europe increases due to climate changeOpenAlex
Paola Battilani, Piero Toscano, H.J. van der Fels‐Klerx, et al.
Climate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide and its expected impact on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern. Aflatoxins have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins; hence, the maximal concentration in agricultural food and feed products and their commodities is regulated worldwide. The possible change in patterns of aflatoxin occurrence in crops due to climate change is a matter of concern that may require anticipatory actions. The aim of this study was to predict aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops, within the next 100 years, under a +2 °C and +5 °C climate change scenario, applying a modelling approach. Europe was virtually covered by a net, 50 × 50 km grids, identifying 2254 meshes with a central point each. Climate data were generated for each point, linked to predictive models and predictions were run consequently. Aflatoxin B1 is predicted to become a food safety issue in maize in Europe, especially in the +2 °C scenario, the most probable scenario of climate change expected for the next years. These results represent a supporting tool to reinforce aflatoxin management and to prevent human and animal exposure.
22Reviewing chemical and biological risks in urban agriculture: A comprehensive framework for a food safety assessment of city region food systems.PubMed
E Buscaroli, I Braschi, C Cirillo, et al.
Food Control. 2021 Aug;126:108085. doi: 10.1016/j.foodcont.2021.108085.
Attention to urban agriculture (UA) has recently grown among practitioners, scientists, and the public, resulting in several initiatives worldwide. Despite the positive perception of modern UA and locally grown, fresh produce, the potential food safety risks connected to these practices may be underestimated, leading to regulatory gaps. Thus, there is a need for assessment tools to evaluate the food safety risks connected to specific UA initiatives, to assist practitioners in self-evaluation and control, and to provide policy makers and scholars a means to pursue and assess food safety in city regions, avoiding either a lack or an excess of regulation that could ultimately hinder the sector. To address this aim, this paper reviews the most recent and relevant literature on UA food safety assessments. Food safety indicators were identified first. Then, a food safety assessment framework for UA initiatives was developed. The framework uses business surveys and food analyses (if available) as a data source for calculating a food safety index for single UA businesses and the whole UA landscape of a given city region. The proposed framework was designed to allow its integration into the CRFS (City Region Food System) toolkit developed by FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), RUAF foundation (Resource Centres on Urban Agriculture and Food Security) and Wilfrid Laurier University.
23The interplay between household food security and wellbeing among small-scale farmers in the context of rapid agrarian change in IndiaOpenAlex
Kirit Patel, Hom Gartaula, Derek Johnson, et al.
Small-scale agriculture, government entitlements, and livelihood opportunities offered by rapid economic growth shape the food security and wellbeing of people in rural India. This paper analyses this ongoing process of agrarian development from the perspective of three major approaches: the food availability approach, the entitlement and livelihood approach, and food sovereignty. We draw on quantitative and qualitative data collected from 68 households in rural Tamil Nadu on landholding and management, farm diversity, agricultural production, food availability, off-farm employment, rural out-migration, objective and subjective wellbeing, and socioeconomic and demographic profile of respondents. Rural households were classified in four categories, based on their engagement in agriculture and off-farm employment, to understand the interplay between food sufficiency and wellbeing. The households solely based on small-scale agriculture were found to have higher food sufficiency, landholding, and crop diversity, but lower monthly income and wellbeing. The households that were engaged in off-farm employment in addition to agriculture were found to have lower food sufficiency, landholding, and crop diversity, yet they exhibited better wellbeing and higher income. The landless households, which were primarily engaged in off-farm labour, work in distant markets had higher income than households solely engaged in farming. However, they had the lowest wellbeing index among all household types. The findings indicated that the impacts of women’s participation in local or distant employment schemes on household food security and wellbeing were complex and shaped by the household’s engagement in agriculture and their aspirations for a better quality of life. None of the three food security approaches provides a fully satisfactory basis for interventions aimed at enhancing the capacity of small and marginal farmers to achieve food security and meet their aspirations for wellbeing in the research area, although the entitlements and livelihoods approach has had a significant impact on local possibilities for livelihoods diversification. The study demonstrates that the interaction between food security and the subjective wellbeing of farmers is complex and shaped by the productivity of small-scale agriculture and livelihood aspirations of farm households.
24The global burden of pathogens and pests on major food cropsOpenAlex
Serge Savary, Laetitia Willocquet, Sarah J. Pethybridge, et al.
Crop pathogens and pests reduce the yield and quality of agricultural production. They cause substantial economic losses and reduce food security at household, national and global levels. Quantitative, standardized information on crop losses is difficult to compile and compare across crops, agroecosystems and regions. Here, we report on an expert-based assessment of crop health, and provide numerical estimates of yield losses on an individual pathogen and pest basis for five major crops globally and in food security hotspots. Our results document losses associated with 137 pathogens and pests associated with wheat, rice, maize, potato and soybean worldwide. Our yield loss (range) estimates at a global level and per hotspot for wheat (21.5% (10.1-28.1%)), rice (30.0% (24.6-40.9%)), maize (22.5% (19.5-41.1%)), potato (17.2% (8.1-21.0%)) and soybean (21.4% (11.0-32.4%)) suggest that the highest losses are associated with food-deficit regions with fast-growing populations, and frequently with emerging or re-emerging pests and diseases. Our assessment highlights differences in impacts among crop pathogens and pests and among food security hotspots. This analysis contributes critical information to prioritize crop health management to improve the sustainability of agroecosystems in delivering services to societies.
25Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080OpenAlex
Günther Fischer, Mahendra Shah, Francesco N. Tubiello, et al.
A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.
26How can climate change and the development of bioenergy alter the long-term outlook for food and agriculture?OpenAlex
G. Fischer
Accumulating scientific evidence has alerted international and national awareness to the urgent need to mitigate climate change. Meanwhile, increasing and reoccurring extreme weather events devastate more and more harvests and livelihoods around the world. \n\nBiofuels development has recently received increased attention as a means to mitigate climate change, alleviate global energy concerns and foster rural development. Its perceived importance in these three areas has made biofuels feature prominently on the international agenda. Nevertheless, the rapid growth of biofuel production has raised many concerns among experts worldwide, particularly regarding sustainability issues and the threat posed to food security. \n\nAs recent events have shown, a number of factors - including the adoption of mandatory biofuel policies, high crude oil prices, increasing global food import demand, below average harvests in some countries and low levels of world food stocks - have resulted in sudden and substantial increases in world food prices. The consequences have been food riots around the world, from Mexico and Haiti to Mauritania, Egypt and Bangladesh. Estimates indicate that high food prices increased the number of food-insecure people by about 100 million. \n\nThis chapter presents an integrated agro-ecological and socio-economic spatial global assessment of the interlinkages among emerging biofuel developments, food security and climate change. Its purpose is to quantify the extent to which climate change and expansion of biofuel production may alter the long-term outlook for food, agriculture and resource availability, based on work by FAO in its "World agriculture towards 2030/2050" assessment. \n\nThe International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has developed a modelling framework and models to analyse the world food and agriculture system spatially and to evaluate the impacts and implications of agricultural policies. The modelling framework has recently been extended and adapted to incorporate biofuel development issues.
27Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Population Health and Health System ImplicationsOpenAlex
Kristie L. Ebi, Jennifer Vanos, Jane W. Baldwin, et al.
Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, cyclones, and floods, are an expression of climate variability. These events and events influenced by climate change, such as wildfires, continue to cause significant human morbidity and mortality and adversely affect mental health and well-being. Although adverse health impacts from extreme events declined over the past few decades, climate change and more people moving into harm's way could alter this trend. Long-term changes to Earth's energy balance are increasing the frequency and intensity of many extreme events and the probability of compound events, with trends projected to accelerate under certain greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While most of these events cannot be completely avoided, many of the health risks could be prevented through building climate-resilient health systems with improved risk reduction, preparation, response, and recovery. Conducting vulnerability and adaptation assessments and developing health system adaptation plans can identify priority actions to effectively reduce risks, such as disaster risk management and more resilient infrastructure. The risks are urgent, so action is needed now.
28Changes in precipitation with climate changeOpenAlex
Kevin E. Trenberth
There is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However, the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1C warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extratropical rain or snow storms, or tropical cyclones, supplied with increased moisture, produce more intense precipitation events. Such events are observed to be widely occurring, even where total precipitation is decreasing: 'it never rains but it pours!' This increases the risk of flooding. The atmospheric and surface energy budget plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle, and also in the slower rate of change that occurs in total precipitation than total column water vapor. With modest changes in winds, patterns of precipitation do not change much, but result in dry areas becoming drier (generally throughout the subtropics) and wet areas becoming wetter, especially in the mid-to high latitudes: the 'rich get richer and the poor get poorer'. This pattern is simulated by climate models and is projected to continue into the future. Because, with warming, more precipitation occurs as rain instead of snow and snow melts earlier, there is increased runoff and risk of flooding in early spring, but increased risk of drought in summer, especially over continental areas. However, with more precipitation per unit of upward motion in the atmosphere, i.e. 'more bang for the buck', atmospheric circulation weakens, causing monsoons to falter. In the tropics and subtropics, precipitation patterns are dominated by shifts as sea surface temperatures change, with El Nio a good example. The volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to an unprecedented drop in land precipitation and runoff, and to widespread drought, as precipitation shifted from land to oceans and evaporation faltered, providing lessons for possible geoengineering. Most models simulate precipitation that occurs prematurely and too often, and with insufficient intensity, resulting in recycling that is too large and a lifetime of moisture in the atmosphere that is too short, which affects runoff and soil moisture.
29Spatial-Temporal Variation of Drought in China from 1982 to 2010 Based on a modified Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (mTVDI)OpenAlex
Shuhe Zhao, Dianmin Cong, Kexun He, et al.
Droughts cause huge losses of society and environment, therefore it is important to study the spatial-temporal pattern of drought. The traditional remote sensing drought indices (AVI, VCI and TCI) only consider the single factor representing the soil moisture (surface temperature or NDVI). The comprehensive remote sensing drought indices (VSWI and TVDI) can estimate the soil moisture more accurately, but they are not suitable for large scale region especially with great elevation variation. In this study, a modified Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (mTVDI) was constructed based on the correction of elevation and dry edge. Compared with the traditional drought indices, mTVDI had a better relationship with soil moisture in all selected months (R = -0.376, -0.406, -0.459, and -0.265, p < 0.05). mTVDI was used to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of drought in China from 1982 to 2010. The results showed that droughts appeared more frequently in Northwest China and the southwest of Tibet while drought centers of North and Southwest China appeared in Huanghuaihai Plain and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau respectively. The frequency of drought was increasing as a whole while the frequency of severe drought increased significantly by 4.86% and slight drought increased slowly during 1982 to 2010. The results are useful for the understanding of drought and policy making of climate change.
30Spatial-Temporal Patterns of Agricultural Drought in Upper Progo Watershed Based on Remote Sensing and Land Physical CharacteristicsOpenAlex
Wahyu Widiyatmoko, Sudibyakto, Emilya Nurjani, et al.
Agricultural drought is alarmed by meteorological drought characterized by lower year-to-year rainfall. Under long period and continuous water deficits, plants may demonstrate stress symptoms and wilt or die. Furthermore, agricultural drought leads to crop failures and threaten the food security of an area. Progo Hulu sub-watershed is a major agricultural area in Temanggung Regency. Spatial-temporal pattern-based information about agricultural drought can be a basis for decision making in drought mitigation. This study aims to analyze spatial and temporal distribution patterns of drought, analyze the physical characteristics of land and their influence on drought pattern, and establish a prediction model of drought distribution patterns based on four physical characteristics of the land. Landsat 8 imagery is used to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural drought in Upper Progo watershed using an improved Temperature vegetation Dryness Index (iTVDI). Slope, land use, landform, and soil texture are the physical characteristics of land as the variables to determine the most influential factor of drought pattern. They are analyzed using multiple regression analysis techniques. Pixel samples are obtained through purposive sampling method based on land units. The results reveal that the spatial-temporal distribution of agricultural drought occurs rapidly on the slopes and foothills of Sumbing and Sindoro. These areas have the highest average value of the iTVDI index. Agricultural drought extends gradually in line with the number of days without rainfall. Landform is a physical characteristic that most influences the distribution of agricultural drought. The established model by utilizing four variables of physical characteristics generates an average value which almost similar to the iTVDI value produced by remote sensing data. The model can be useful to estimate drought distribution based on the number of days without rainfall.
31Ensuring Africa's Food Security by 2050: The Role of Population Growth, Climate-Resilient Strategies, and Putative Pathways to Resilience.PubMed
Belay Simane, Thandi Kapwata, Natasha Naidoo, et al.
Foods. 2025 Jan 15;14(2):262. doi: 10.3390/foods14020262.
Africa is grappling with severe food security challenges driven by population growth, climate change, land degradation, water scarcity, and socio-economic factors such as poverty and inequality. Climate variability and extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, and heatwaves, are intensifying food insecurity by reducing agricultural productivity, water availability, and livelihoods. This study examines the projected threats to food security in Africa, focusing on changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and the frequency of extreme weather events. Using an Exponential Growth Model, we estimated the population from 2020 to 2050 across Africa's five sub-regions. The analysis assumes a 5% reduction in crop yields for every degree of warming above historical levels, with a minimum requirement of 225 kg of cereals per person per year. Climate change is a critical factor in Africa's food systems, with an average temperature increase of approximately +0.3 °C per decade. By 2050, the total food required to meet the 2100-kilocalorie per adult equivalent per day will rise to 558.7 million tons annually, up from 438.3 million tons in 2020. We conclude that Africa's current food systems are unsustainable, lacking resilience to climate shocks and relying heavily on rain-fed agriculture with inadequate infrastructure and technology. We call for a transformation in food systems through policy reform, technological and structural changes, solutions to land degradation, and proven methods of increasing crop yields that take the needs of communities into account.
32[Temporal and spatial distribution of rice drought in Southwest China].OpenAlex
Jianping Zhang, Zongyuan Liu, Yongkun He, et al.
Considering the characteristics of rice production and climate conditions in Southwest China, an agricultural drought monitoring model based on wetness index anomaly rate (Mp) by calculating the variation of deviation from average values of relative humid index was established, and was used to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the rice drought during the growth season in Southwest China in the past 50 years (1961-2010). The applicability of the Mp model in Southwest China was verified by using this model to monitor the rice drought. The result showed there was a decreasing trend in the frequency of rice drought in term of the decadal variability. The areas with high drought risk mainly concentrated in northwestern and mid-eastern Yunnan Province, eastern Sichuan Basin, northeastern Chongqing City, and southeastern Guizhou Province. The drought frequency was highest at the stage from transplanting to tasseling, followed by the stage from grain filling to maturity, and was lowest at the stage from tasseling to grain filling. Mp was suitable for monitoring the rice drought in Southwest China, and could be used as a reference for the rice planting areas without irrigation data.
33Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production.PubMed
Corey Lesk, Pedram Rowhani, Navin Ramankutty
Nature. 2016 Jan 7;529(7584):84-7. doi: 10.1038/nature16467.
In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.
34Climate change, its impact on crop production, challenges, and possible solutionsOpenAlex
Majed A. Alotaibi
Climate change poses serious threats to agriculture and food security, and extreme weather events have reduced crop productivity worldwide. Future projections predict that the average global temperature will rise by 2.0 to 6.4 °C and the increase in sea level will be 59 cm by the end of 21st century. The unprecedented rise in temperature has led to an increase in the incidence of heat waves, droughts, floods, and irregular patterns of precipitation. These changes have a dramatic impact on prevailing agricultural cropping systems, productivity, and food security of people regionally and globally. The change in climatic parameters have substantial effects on weeds, diseases, insect, and pests in different ways, and can result in an increase of their geographical distribution, number of generations, and survival during winter. Thus, to sustain the crop production on the eve of climate change is the main challenge. Therefore, adaptation measures are prerequisites to reduce the effects of climatic changes on production of agricultural crops. In this review, a brief insight has been given in the impact of climate change on agriculture and, the future challenges of climate change on the production of crops. In addition, integrated approaches, or recent developments for the improvement of crops such as breeding, transgenic approaches to biotechnology, and functional genomics, agronomic practices, cultivation of climate resilient crops, and nanotechnology for abiotic stress such as drought stress, temperature, heat, and salinity tolerance have also been discussed.
35Climate change impacts on heat stress in Brazil—Past, present, and future implications for occupational heat exposureOpenAlex
Daniel Pires Bitencourt, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Elisa Shibuya, et al.
Abstract Climate change has caused an increased occurrence of heat waves. As a result of rising temperatures, implications for health and the environment have been more frequently reported. Outdoor labour activities deserve special attention, as is the case with agricultural and construction workers exposed to extreme weather conditions, including intense heat. This paper presents an overview of heat stress conditions in Brazil from 1961 to 2010. It also presents computer‐simulated projections of heat stress conditions up to the late 21st century. The proposed climate analysis drew on historical weather data obtained from national weather stations and on reanalysis data, in addition to future projections with the ETA ( regarding the model's unique vertical coordinate ) regional forecast model. The projections took into consideration two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)—the 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, namely, moderate and high emissions scenarios, respectively. Heat stress was inferred based on the wet‐bulb globe temperature ( WBGT ) index. The results of this climate analysis show that Brazilian outdoor workers have been exposed to an increasing level of heat stress. These results suggest that future changes in the regional climate may increase the probability of heat stress situations in the next decades, with expectations of WBGT values greater than those observed in the baseline period (1961–1990). In terms of spatial distribution, the Brazilian western and northern regions experienced more critical heat stress conditions with higher WBGT values. As a response to the increased frequency trends of hot periods in tropical areas, urgent measures should be taken to review public policies in Brazil. Such policies should include actions towards better working conditions, technological development to improve outdoor labour activities, and employment legislation reviews to mitigate heat impacts on occupational health.
36Influences of extreme weather events on the carbon to nitrogen ratios of major staple crops.PubMed
Ye Xia, Congsheng Fu, Aimin Liao, et al.
Sci Total Environ. 2025 Mar 15;969:178943. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178943. Epub 2025 Feb 27.
Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) contents, along with the corresponding C:N ratios in crops, significantly impact C and N cycles in cropland ecosystems. However, the effects of climate change and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events (EWEs) on the C:N ratios of major crops remain uncertain. Here, we combined field experiments and mathematical modeling to explore the impact of excessive precipitation, precipitation shortage, and heat events on the C and N contents and C:N ratios of rice and wheat in a major grain production base in China. The results showed that the average C:N ratios for different rice organs during the growing season ranged from 26.8 to 47.6, while winter wheat C:N ratios ranged from 26.4 to 41.1. The calibration model based on measured C:N ratios effectively improved the simulation of crop C and N contents. Excessive precipitation led to a 25 %-37 % increase in wheat C contents and a 66 %-76 % increase in N contents, while plant C:N ratios decreased by 30 %-37 %. Precipitation shortage reduced C and N contents in various wheat organs by 4 %-29 % and 8 %-47 %, respectively, while increasing corresponding C:N ratios by 4 %-33 % due to larger reductions in N than C contents. Extreme heat decreased C content in rice grains by 12 %-13 % and N content by 8 %-24 %, while C content in rice leaves decreased by 27 %-30 % and N content by 34 %-41 %. However, C and N contents in roots increased by 13 %-18 % and 33 %-48 %, respectively, leading to an average increase in the C:N ratios of rice grains and leaves by 5 % and 14 %, while the C:N ratio of roots decreased by 26 %. In the future, the effects of heat events on grain C:N ratios are projected to be even more pronounced.
37The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.OpenAlex
Gregg Greenough, Michael A. McGeehin, Sylvia Bernard, et al.
Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.
38National Assessment Report of Climate Change (I): Climate change in China and its future trendOpenAlex
Zhang De
The climate change in China shows a considerable similarity to the global change, however, there still exist significant differences between them. In the context of the global warming, the annual mean surface temperature has significantly increased during the past 100 years, with slightly greater magnitude of temperature increase than the globe . The precipitation trends during the last 50 and 100 years are not obvious ,but since 1956 it has assumed a weak increasing trend. The frequency and intensity of main extreme weather and climate events have also assumed significant change. The research has shown that the CO2 emission in China has continuously increased and the sum of positive radiative forcings produced by greenhouse gases is responsible for climate warming. The projection of climate change for the 21 st century has indicated that in the future 20-100 years, the surface temperature will continue to increase and precipitation also has an increasing trend.
39Climate change, flooding, urbanisation and leptospirosis: fuelling the fire?OpenAlex
Colleen L. Lau, Lee D. Smythe, Scott B. Craig, et al.
Flooding and heavy rainfall have been associated with numerous outbreaks of leptospirosis around the world. With global climate change, extreme weather events such as cyclones and floods are expected to occur with increasing frequency and greater intensity and may potentially result in an upsurge in the disease incidence as well as the magnitude of leptospirosis outbreaks. In this paper, we examine mechanisms by which climate change can affect various ecological factors that are likely to drive an increase in the overall incidence as well as the frequency of outbreaks of leptospirosis. We will discuss the geographical areas that are most likely to be at risk of an increase in leptospirosis disease burden owing to the coexistence of climate change hazard risk, environmental drivers of leptospirosis outbreaks, local socioeconomic circumstances, and social and demographic trends. To reduce this disease burden, enhanced surveillance and further research is required to understand the environmental drivers of infection, to build capacity in emergency response and to promote community adaptation to a changing climate.
40Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of KnowledgeOpenAlex
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Thomas R. Karl, Harold E. Brooks, et al.
The state of knowledge regarding trends and an understanding of their causes is presented for a specific subset of extreme weather and climate types. For severe convective storms (tornadoes, hailstorms, and severe thunderstorms), differences in time and space of practices of collecting reports of events make using the reporting database to detect trends extremely difficult. Overall, changes in the frequency of environments favorable for severe thunderstorms have not been statistically significant. For extreme precipitation, there is strong evidence for a nationally averaged upward trend in the frequency and intensity of events. The causes of the observed trends have not been determined with certainty, although there is evidence that increasing atmospheric water vapor may be one factor. For hurricanes and typhoons, robust detection of trends in Atlantic and western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) activity is significantly constrained by data heterogeneity and deficient quantification of internal variability. Attribution of past TC changes is further challenged by a lack of consensus on the physical link- ages between climate forcing and TC activity. As a result, attribution of trends to anthropogenic forcing remains controversial. For severe snowstorms and ice storms, the number of severe regional snowstorms that occurred since 1960 was more than twice that of the preceding 60 years. There are no significant multidecadal trends in the areal percentage of the contiguous United States impacted by extreme seasonal snowfall amounts since 1900. There is no distinguishable trend in the frequency of ice storms for the United States as a whole since 1950.
41Will Climate Change Exacerbate the Economic Damage of Flood to Agricultural Production? A Case Study of Rice in Ha Tinh Province, VietnamOpenAlex
Pham Quy Giang, Tran Trung Vy
In developing countries in general and in Vietnam in particular, flood induced economic loss of agriculture is a serious concern since the livelihood of large populations depends on agricultural production. The objective of this study was to examine if climate change would exacerbate flood damage to agricultural production with a case study of rice production in Huong Son District of Ha Tinh Province, North-central Vietnam. The study applied a modeling approach for the prediction. Extreme precipitation and its return periods were calculated by the Generalized Extreme Value distribution method using historical daily observations and output of the MRI-CGCM3 climate model. The projected extreme precipitation data was then employed as an input of the Mike Flood model for flood modeling. Finally, an integrated approach employing flood depth and duration and crop calendar was used for the prediction of potential economic loss of rice production. Results of the study show that in comparison with the baseline period, an increase of 49.14% in the intensity of extreme precipitation was expected, while the frequency would increase 5 times by 2050s. As a result, the seriousness of floods would increase under climate change impacts as they would become more intensified, deeper and longer, and consequently the economic loss of rice production would increase significantly. While the level of peak flow was projected to rise nearly 1 m, leading the area of rice inundated to increase by 12.61%, the value of damage would rise by over 21% by 2050s compared to the baseline period. The findings of the present study are useful for long-term agricultural and infrastructural planning in order to tackle potential flooding threats to agricultural production under climate change impacts.
42Crop Production under Drought and Heat Stress: Plant Responses and Management OptionsOpenAlex
Shah Fahad, Ali Ahsan Bajwa, Usman Nazir, et al.
Abiotic stresses are one of the major constraints to crop production and food security worldwide. The situation has aggravated due to the drastic and rapid changes in global climate. Heat and drought are undoubtedly the two most important stresses having huge impact on growth and productivity of the crops. It is very important to understand the physiological, biochemical, and ecological interventions related to these stresses for better management. A wide range of plant responses to these stresses could be generalized into morphological, physiological, and biochemical responses. Interestingly, this review provides a detailed account of plant responses to heat and drought stresses with special focus on highlighting the commonalities and differences. Crop growth and yields are negatively affected by sub-optimal water supply and abnormal temperatures due to physical damages, physiological disruptions, and biochemical changes. Both these stresses have multi-lateral impacts and therefore, complex in mechanistic action. A better understanding of plant responses to these stresses has pragmatic implication for remedies and management. A comprehensive account of conventional as well as modern approaches to deal with heat and drought stresses have also been presented here. A side-by-side critical discussion on salient responses and management strategies for these two important abiotic stresses provides a unique insight into the phenomena. A holistic approach taking into account the different management options to deal with heat and drought stress simultaneously could be a win-win approach in future.
43Stress physiology in crop plantsOpenAlex
Harry W. Mussell, Richard C. Staples
Organization and Conduct of Plant Stress Research to Increase Agricultural Productivity (M. Christiansen). Disease Tolerance: Reducing the Impact of Disease-Induced Stress on Crop Yields (H. Mussell and M. Malone). Thigmomorphogenesis: The Effect of Mechanical Perturbation on the Growth of Plants, with Special Reference to Anatomical Changes, the Role of Ethylene, and Interaction with Other Environmental Stresses (M. Jaffe and R. Biro). Differential Aluminum Tolerance in Crop Plants (R. Rhue). Comparative Responses of Field Grown Crops to Phosphate Concentrations in Soil Solutions (R. Fox). Production of Food Plants in Areas Supplied with Highly Saline Water: Problems and Prospects (G. Somers). Salt Resistance in Agricultural Crops. (D. Pasternak et al.). Effects of Freezing and Cold Acclimation on Membrane Structure and Function (P. Steponkus). Cold Resistance and Injury in Winter Cereals (L. Gusta and D. Fowler). Strategies for Altering Chilling Sensitivity as a Limiting Factor in Crop Production (J. Lyons and R. Breidenbach). Frost Hardiness: A Discussion of Possible Molecular Causes of Injury with Particular Reference to Deep Supercooling of Water (M. Burke and C. Stushnoff). Breeding Potatoes for Tolerance to Stress: Heat and Frost (H. Mendoza and R. Estrada). Selecting for Drought and Heat Resistance in Grain Sorghum (C. Sullivan and W. Ross). Drought Stress of Cowpea and Soybean under Tropical Conditions (H. Wein et al.). Effects of Water and Heat Stress on Carbon Metabolism of Plants with C3 and C4 Photosynthesis (D. Lawlor). Air Pollution Stress (L. Weinstein and D. McCune). Drought Resistance and Adaptation to Water Deficits in Crop Plants (N. Turner). Drought Resistance in Cereals--Rice: A Case Study (J. O'Toole and T. Chang). Stomatal Behavior and Breeding for Drought Resistance (H. Jones). Genetic Improvement of Drought Resistance in Crop Plants: A Case for Sorghum (A. Blum). Testing and Selecting for Drought Resistance in Wheat (T. Townley-Smith and E. Hurd). Growth and Development of Chickpeas under Progressive Moisture Stress (A. Sheldrake and N. Saxena). Index.
44Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variabilityOpenAlex
D. K. Ray, James Gerber, Graham K. MacDonald, et al.
Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32-39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.
45Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimatesOpenAlex
Chuang Zhao, Bing Liu, Shilong Piao, et al.
fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
46Assessing the interrelationship between monsoon flood disasters and major crop production in BangladeshOpenAlex
Mostafizur Rahman, Md. Shafiul Alam, Rumana Sultana, et al.
Bangladesh faces various acute and chronic natural calamities due to its precarious global positioning. Floods are among Bangladesh's leading and most frequent disasters. While much research has been published on the association between flood risk and agricultural losses, significant gaps exist in recognizing the relationship between monsoon flood disasters and agrarian land and production losses. This study aims to investigate the substantial crop losses brought on by monsoon floods, with a particular emphasis on the impacts of floods on crop productivity and strategies to mitigate those effects. It also describes the FAO method for assessing flood damage to the agricultural sector, concentrating mainly on flood damage to rice and jute crops. Both qualitative and quantitative methodologies were employed to collect and analyze the data for this study. Primary data was collected through interviews, structured questionnaires, personal observations, and informal discussions with 250 respondents. Secondary data was obtained from official records such as libraries, journals, yearly reports, statistics yearbooks, newspapers, and other relevant sources. The combined quantitative and qualitative data revealed that flooding interrupts crop-growing patterns (rice, potato, pepper, and maize), decreases cropping land area, reduces crop production, and affects socio-economic conditions overall. In addition, this study focuses on the barriers and constraints that could obviate flood management. Hence, floods cause production losses of about 2.25 metric tons of rice and 2 metric tons of jute, equivalent to more than 50,000 ($600) and 45,000 ($550) BDT, individually. The study further recommended a monsoon flood management approach that prioritizes resilience and infrastructure development through constant surveillance and evaluation to ensure regional food security utilizing sustainable crop production. The crop damage assessment method described in this paper can also be applied in other areas for flood risk management. • Monsoon floods reduce crop area, posing long-term and short-term challenges for sustainable agriculture. • Crops like rice, jute, maize, potato, and pepper are impacted, with a reduction in agricultural land and cropping area. • Monsoon floods amplify social challenges, increasing poverty, unemployment, and inflation.
47The unmet demand of food security in East Africa: review of the triple challenges of climate change, economic crises, and conflictsOpenAlex
Abdulkadir Mohamed Abdullahi, Roice Bwambale Kalengyo, Abdimalik Ali Warsame
East Africa struggles with a profound challenge in ensuring food security amidst the convergence of climate change, economic crises, and conflicts. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the interconnected and compounding effects of these three factors on the region’s food security landscape. It investigates the complex ways in which shifting climatic patterns disrupt agricultural systems, exacerbating food scarcity and amplifying vulnerabilities among marginalized communities. The study also examines the intertwined impact of economic downturns, which diminish access to resources, disrupt supply chains, and deepen food insecurity. Furthermore, the paper scrutinizes the ramifications of persistent conflicts, which not only displace populations but also destabilize agricultural production, aggravating food shortages. To achieve the objective of this, review the authors have collected the relevant documents through search engines of Web of Science, Google, Google Scholar, Scopus, and Science Direct databases. This review found that climate change, economic instability, and conflict are the primary challenges to food security in East Africa. Climate change exacerbates extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and pest infestations, reducing agricultural productivity and economic growth. Economic instability stems from a lack of industrialization, dependence on foreign aid, and significant investment gaps, resulting in persistent poverty and underdevelopment. Additionally, conflict and instability disrupt agricultural activities, displace populations, and restrict access to essential resources, further aggravating food insecurity. The study emphasizes the necessity for coordinated efforts among governments, international organizations, and local communities to navigate these intersecting crises and establish sustainable pathways toward enhanced food security in the region.
48Rice and paddy industry in Malaysia: governance and policies, research trends, technology adoption and resilienceOpenAlex
Deivaseeno Dorairaj, Nisha Govender
Rice is an important staple food for nearly half the world’s population. In Malaysia, rice and paddy cultivation kickstarted in the early 60s with small-scale farming, which later expanded by leaps and bounds before emerging as the country’s utmost important food crop. Over the decades, Malaysian rice production system has been suffering from various challenges which include extreme weather conditions, poor soil fertility and nutrient management, farmers’ lack of awareness and knowledge, hesitancy against genetically-modified planting materials and poor deployment of technology. The national rice production and consumption, simply measured as self-sufficiency status staggers in between 67 and 70%. The Southeast Asia region has been an important rice export trader with Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia, among the biggest rice-producing nations. Food security, under the context of sustaining international rice trading ties, succumbs to functional fluctuations of global supply chains. During the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, the containment period during the outbreak led to significant disruptions to the food production chain. During the early phase of the pandemic, Malaysia experienced a volatile rice import trend, facing difficulty to secure a committed rice trading partner. In this review, we discuss the trajectory of the rice and paddy industry in Malaysia since its inception, lab-to-field translated breeding strategies adopted for rice yield improvement, governmental participation and contribution (approaches, policies and programs) and technologies in use for rice production. Further, relevant cutting-edge technologies, agricultural methods and practices catered for modern Malaysian rice farming, with opportunities to improve and enhance crop health and resilience are included. The review findings inform new rice agricultural practices, suggest research directions toward sustainable rice farming and provide a comprehensive knowledge base to accelerate innovation, technology diffusion and technology adoption for a resilient rice production system in Malaysia.
50Growth and yield of winter wheat (<i>Triticum aestivum</i>) crops in response to CO<sub>2</sub>and temperatureOpenAlex
Tim Wheeler, G. R. Batts, R. H. Ellis, et al.
SUMMARY Crops of winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L. cv. Hereward) were grown within temperature gradient tunnels at a range of temperatures at either c. 350 or 700 μmol mol −1 CO 2 in 1991/92 and 1992/93 at Reading, UK. At terminal spikelet stage, leaf area was 45% greater at elevated CO 2 in the first year due to more tillers, and was 30% greater in the second year due to larger leaf areas on the primary tillers. At harvest maturity, total crop biomass was negatively related to mean seasonal temperature within each year and CO 2 treatment, due principally to shorter crop durations at the warmer temperatures. Biomass was 6–31% greater at elevated compared with normal CO 2 and was also affected by a positive interaction between temperature and CO 2 in the first year only. Seed yield per unit area was greater at cooler temperatures and at elevated CO 2 concentrations. A 7–44% greater seed dry weight at elevated CO 2 in the first year was due to more ears per unit area and heavier grains. In the following year, mean seed dry weight was increased by > 72% at elevated CO 2 , because grain numbers per ear did not decline with an increase in temperature at elevated CO 2 . Grain numbers were reduced by temperatures > 31 °C immediately before anthesis at normal atmospheric CO 2 in 1992/93, and at both CO 2 concentrations in 1991/92. To quantify the impact of future climates of elevated CO 2 concentrations and warmer temperatures on wheat yields, consideration of both interactions between CO 2 and mean seasonal temperature, and possible effects of instantaneous temperatures on yield components at different CO 2 concentrations are required. Nevertheless, the results obtained suggest that the benefits to winter wheat grain yield from CO 2 doubling are offset by an increase in mean seasonal temperature of only 1·0 °C to 1·8 °C in the UK.
51Influence of Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations and Temperature on Growth, Yield and Grain Quality of Cereal CropsOpenAlex
JP Conroy, Saman Seneweera, A.S. Basra, et al.
A possible scenario for the end of the 21st century is that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be in the range of 510-760 μL L-1 and that the mean global temperature will be 1.5-4.5ºC higher. Further, there may be greater incidences of extreme climatic events, which together with the CO2 and temperature changes will influence development, growth and grain yield of cereals such as rice and wheat. For these C3 plants, the driving force for the growth response to elevated CO2 is higher leaf CO2 assimilation rates (A). However, the response of A to CO2 depends on temperature with maximum absolute increases occuring at temperatures which do not cause flower abortion, while negligible increases are observed at low temperatures. At high temperatures, where A is reduced because of partial inactivation of photosynthetic enzymes, the increase in A due to CO2 enrichment is still observed. Other factors, such as changes in shoot water relations or hormone concentrations, may influence growth at elevated CO2 concentrations. Wheat and rice development is accelerated by high temperature and consequently grain yield is reduced because there is less time for radiation to be intercepted during the vegetative phase. Although high CO2 also accelerates development in rice and, to a lesser extent in wheat, the extra carbohydrate produced by increases in A results in at least a 40% increase in grain yield at temperatures which do not cause flower abortion. This is due mainly to increased tiller numbers rather than increases in the number or weight of individual grains. However, the yield enhancement due to high CO2 will not necessarily compensate for decreases in yield caused by accelerated development at high temperatures. As predicted by the response of A to high CO2, the relative increase in yield, due to rising CO2 concentrations, is smaller at lower temperatures. Elevated atmospheric CO2 may improve the tolerance of plants to heat-induced drought stress by facilitating the maintenance of cell volume and photosynthetic function in the leaves. Increased carbohydrate storage in the stems may also be an advantage during grain filling if the flag leaves senesce prematurely. However, it is unlikely that the effect of very high temperatures on flower abortion will be ameliorated by high CO2. For bread making, the quality of flour produced from grain developed at high temperatures is poorer. High CO2 may also have an effect through a reduction in the protein content of wheat grain. For rice, the amylose content of the grain, a major determinant of cooking quality is increased under elevated CO2.
52The heat is on: how crop growth, development, and yield respond to high temperatureOpenAlex
Tingting Zhu, Cássio Flávio Fonseca de Lima, Ive De Smet
Plants are exposed to a wide range of temperatures during their life cycle and need to continuously adapt. These adaptations need to deal with temperature changes on a daily and seasonal level and with temperatures affected by climate change. Increasing global temperatures negatively impact crop performance, and several physiological, biochemical, morphological and developmental responses to increased temperature have been described that allow plants to mitigate this. In this review, we assess various growth, development, and yield-related responses of crops to extreme and moderate high temperature, focusing on knowledge gained from both monocot (e.g. wheat, barley, maize, rice) and dicot crops (e.g. soybean and tomato) and incorporating information from model plants (e.g. Arabidopsis and Brachypodium). This revealed common and different responses between dicot and monocot crops, and defined different temperature thresholds depending on the species, growth stage and organ.
53Responses of crop yield growth to global temperature and socioeconomic changesOpenAlex
Toshichika Iizumi, Jun Furuya, Zhihong Shen, et al.
Although biophysical yield responses to local warming have been studied, we know little about how crop yield growth-a function of climate and technology-responds to global temperature and socioeconomic changes. Here, we present the yield growth of major crops under warming conditions from preindustrial levels as simulated by a global gridded crop model. The results revealed that global mean yields of maize and soybean will stagnate with warming even when agronomic adjustments are considered. This trend is consistent across socioeconomic assumptions. Low-income countries located at low latitudes will benefit from intensive mitigation and from associated limited warming trends (1.8 °C), thus preventing maize, soybean and wheat yield stagnation. Rice yields in these countries can improve under more aggressive warming trends. The yield growth of maize and soybean crops in high-income countries located at mid and high latitudes will stagnate, whereas that of rice and wheat will not. Our findings underpin the importance of ambitious climate mitigation targets for sustaining yield growth worldwide.
54Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocksOpenAlex
Michelle Tigchelaar, David S. Battisti, Rosamond L. Naylor, et al.
Meeting the global food demand of roughly 10 billion people by the middle of the 21st century will become increasingly challenging as the Earth's climate continues to warm. Earlier studies suggest that once the optimum growing temperature is exceeded, mean crop yields decline and the variability of yield increases even if interannual climate variability remains unchanged. Here, we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with future temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in the world's major maize-producing and -exporting countries under 2 °C and 4 °C of global warming. We find that as the global mean temperature increases, absent changes in temperature variability or breeding gains in heat tolerance, the coefficient of variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere to values much larger than present-day values. This higher CV is due both to an increase in the SD of yields and a decrease in mean yields. For the top four maize-exporting countries, which account for 87% of global maize exports, the probability that they have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% in any given year is presently virtually zero, but it increases to 7% under 2 °C warming and 86% under 4 °C warming. Our results portend rising instability in global grain trade and international grain prices, affecting especially the ∼800 million people living in extreme poverty who are most vulnerable to food price spikes. They also underscore the urgency of investments in breeding for heat tolerance.
56Impacts of Drought and/or Heat Stress on Physiological, Developmental, Growth, and Yield Processes of Crop PlantsOpenAlex
P. V. Vara Prasad, Scott Staggenborg, Zoran Ristić
Drought and heat stress are among the two most important environmental factors influencing crop growth, development, and yield processes. A comprehensive understanding of the impact of drought and heat stress will be critical in evaluating the impact of climate change and climate variability on crop production. Both drought and heat stress influence an array of processes including physiological, growth, developmental, yield, and quality of crop. The objective of this review is to provide an overview of the influences of these two stresses on the above processes independently and in combination. Our review suggests a clear need of information on interactive effects of stresses particularly of drought and heat stress which mostly occur in combination. Both short- and long-term stresses can significantly influence growth and yield processes when stress occurs at sensitive stages. Crops are generally more sensitive to drought and/or heat stress during reproductive stages of development, which mainly influences seed numbers. Some of the important traits associated with drought- and/or heat-stress tolerance are indicated and discussed. The impacts of drought and heat stress are often different, and tolerance mechanisms may also be different. There is a wide range of crop modeling approaches (simple empirical models and more mechanistic models) that try to quantify the impact of stresses on growth, development, and yield and yield quality traits. These crop models should have the capability to quantify the impact of both short- and long-term stress events on growth, development, and yield processes. Modeling growth, development, sink-source relation, grain yield, and grain quality of crops can improve understanding of physiological and genetic nature of tolerance which can lead to increased grain yield and quality of crops. Improved models can enhance our capacity to predict crop performance in future climates and also to identify traits that can potentially be improved or exploited to obtain higher and more stable crop yields under stressed environments.
57Climate change and agroecosystems: the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on crop growth, development, and yieldOpenAlex
Nereu Augusto Streck
The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) of the Earth´s atmosphere is increasing, which has the potential of increasing greenhouse effect and air temperature in the future. Plants respond to environment CO2 and temperature. Therefore, climate change may affect agriculture. The purpose of this paper was to review the literature about the impact of a possible increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature on crop growth, development, and yield. Increasing CO2 concentration increases crop yield once the substrate for photosynthesis and the gradient of CO2 concentration between atmosphere and leaf increase. C3 plants will benefit more than C4 plants at elevated CO2. However, if global warming will take place, an increase in temperature may offset the benefits of increasing CO2 on crop yield.
58Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Its Mitigation Strategies: A ReviewOpenAlex
Gurdeep Singh Malhi, Manpreet Kaur, Prashant Kaushik
Climate change is a global threat to the food and nutritional security of the world. As greenhouse-gas emissions in the atmosphere are increasing, the temperature is also rising due to the greenhouse effect. The average global temperature is increasing continuously and is predicted to rise by 2 °C until 2100, which would cause substantial economic losses at the global level. The concentration of CO2, which accounts for a major proportion of greenhouse gases, is increasing at an alarming rate, and has led to higher growth and plant productivity due to increased photosynthesis, but increased temperature offsets this effect as it leads to increased crop respiration rate and evapotranspiration, higher pest infestation, a shift in weed flora, and reduced crop duration. Climate change also affects the microbial population and their enzymatic activities in soil. This paper reviews the information collected through the literature regarding the issue of climate change, its possible causes, its projection in the near future, its impact on the agriculture sector as an influence on physiological and metabolic activities of plants, and its potential and reported implications for growth and plant productivity, pest infestation, and mitigation strategies and their economic impact.
59Metabolic Effects of Elevated CO on Wheat Grain Development and Composition.PubMed
David Soba, Sinda Ben Mariem, Teresa Fuertes-Mendizábal, et al.
J Agric Food Chem. 2019 Aug 7;67(31):8441-8451. doi: 10.1021/acs.jafc.9b01594. Epub 2019 Jul 24.
The increase in the atmospheric CO concentration is predicted to influence wheat production and grain quality and nutritional properties. In the present study, durum wheat ( Desf. cv. Sula) was grown under two different CO (400 versus 700 μmol mol) concentrations to examine effects on the crop yield and grain quality at different phenological stages (from grain filling to maturity). Exposure to elevated CO significantly increased aboveground biomass and grain yield components. Growth at elevated CO diminished the elemental N content as well as protein and free amino acids, with a typical decrease in glutamine, which is the most represented amino acid in grain proteins. Such a general decrease in nitrogenous compounds was associated with altered kinetics of protein accumulation, N remobilization, and N partitioning. Our results highlight important modifications of grain metabolism that have implications for its nutritional quality.
60Effects of pre-industrial, current and future [CO2] in traditional and modern wheat genotypes.PubMed
Salvador Aljazairi, Claudia Arias, Elena Sánchez, et al.
J Plant Physiol. 2014 Nov 1;171(17):1654-63. doi: 10.1016/j.jplph.2014.07.019. Epub 2014 Aug 9.
Wheat is one of the most important cereal food crops in the world today. The productivity and quality of this crop is greatly affected by environmental conditions during grain filling. In this study, we have analyzed two genotypes of durum wheat, Blanqueta and Sula (traditional and a modern wheat respectively) in pre-industrial, current and future [CO2]. Plant growth and physiological parameters were analyzed during anthesis and grain filling in order to study the capacity of these plants to create new sinks and their role during the process of the acclimation of photosynthesis. It was observed that plants underwent photosynthetic acclimation at pre-industrial and future [CO2] (up and down-regulation respectively). However, the modern genotype averts the process of down-regulation by creating a new carbon sink (i.e. the spike). Here, we have shown the essential role that the spike plays as a new sink in order to avert the down-regulation of photosynthesis at future [CO2]. Moreover, we have demonstrated that at future [CO2] the growth response will depend on the ability of plants to develop new sinks or expand existing ones.
61The nitrogen cost of photosynthesisOpenAlex
John R. Evans, Victoria C. Clarke
Global food security depends on three main cereal crops (wheat, rice and maize) achieving and maintaining high yields, as well as increasing their future yields. Fundamental to the production of this biomass is photosynthesis. The process of photosynthesis involves a large number of proteins that together account for the majority of the nitrogen in leaves. As large amounts of nitrogen are removed in the harvested grain, this needs to be replaced either from synthetic fertilizer or biological nitrogen fixation. Knowledge about photosynthetic properties of leaves in natural ecosystems is also important, particularly when we consider the potential impacts of climate change. While the relationship between nitrogen and photosynthetic capacity of a leaf differs between species, leaf nitrogen content provides a useful way to incorporate photosynthesis into models of ecosystems and the terrestrial biosphere. This review provides a generalized nitrogen budget for a C3 leaf cell and discusses the potential for improving photosynthesis from a nitrogen perspective.
63Impact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A ReviewOpenAlex
Ali Raza, Ali Razzaq, Sundas Saher Mehmood, et al.
Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses, which have adverse effects on the agriculture of a region. The land and its agriculture are being affected by climate changes in different ways, e.g., variations in annual rainfall, average temperature, heat waves, modifications in weeds, pests or microbes, global change of atmospheric CO₂ or ozone level, and fluctuations in sea level. The threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. According to some predicted reports, agriculture is considered the most endangered activity adversely affected by climate changes. To date, food security and ecosystem resilience are the most concerning subjects worldwide. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation, before it might affect global crop production drastically. In this review paper, we summarize the causes of climate change, stresses produced due to climate change, impacts on crops, modern breeding technologies, and biotechnological strategies to cope with climate change, in order to develop climate resilient crops. Revolutions in genetic engineering techniques can also aid in overcoming food security issues against extreme environmental conditions, by producing transgenic plants.
64Chilling and Drought Stresses in Crop Plants: Implications, Cross Talk, and Potential Management OpportunitiesOpenAlex
Hafiz Athar Hussain, Saddam Hussain, Abdul Khaliq, et al.
Plants face a combination of different abiotic stresses under field conditions which are lethal to plant growth and production. Simultaneous occurrence of chilling and drought stresses in plants due to the drastic and rapid global climate changes, can alter the morphological, physiological and molecular responses. Both these stresses adversely affect the plant growth and yields due to physical damages, physiological and biochemical disruptions, and molecular changes. In general, the co-occurrence of chilling and drought combination is even worse for crop production rather than an individual stress condition. Plants attain various common and different physiological and molecular protective approaches for tolerance under chilling and drought stresses. Nevertheless, plant responses to a combination of chilling and drought stresses are unique from those to individual stress. In the present review, we summarized the recent evidence on plant responses to chilling and drought stresses on shared as well as unique basis and tried to find a common thread potentially underlying these responses. We addressed the possible cross talk between plant responses to these stresses and discussed the potential management strategies for regulating the mechanisms of plant tolerance to drought and/or chilling stresses. To date, various novel approaches have been tested in minimizing the negative effects of combine stresses. Despite of the main improvements there is still a big room for improvement in combination of drought and chilling tolerance. Thus, future researches particularly using biotechnological and molecular approaches should be carried out to develop genetically engineered plants with enhanced tolerance against these stress factors.
65Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experimentsOpenAlex
Xuhui Wang, Chuang Zhao, Christoph Müller, et al.
Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (ST) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (−7.1 ± 2.8% K−1), rice (−5.6 ± 2.0% K−1) and soybean (−10.6 ± 5.8% K−1). For wheat, ST was 89% likely to be negative (−2.9 ± 2.3% K−1). Uncertainties associated with modelled ST were reduced by 12–54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentangling ST of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3–13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO2 fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation. Global responses of crops to warmer temperatures will affect agricultural sustainability. This study of maize, rice, soybean and wheat projects yield reductions of 3–13% under 2 °C warming.
66Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yield: A Case Study of Rainfed Corn in Central IllinoisOpenAlex
Ximing Cai, Dingbao Wang, Romain Laurent
Abstract This paper assesses the effect of climate change on crop yield from a soil water balance perspective. The uncertainties of regional-scale climate models, local-scale climate variability, emissions scenarios, and crop growth models are combined to explore the possible range of climate change effects on rainfed corn yield in central Illinois in 2055. The results show that a drier and warmer summer during the corn growth season and wetter and warmer precrop and postcrop seasons will likely occur. Greater temperature and precipitation variability may lead to more variable soil moisture and crop yield, and larger soil moisture deficit and crop yield reduction are likely to occur more frequently. The increased water stress is likely to be most pronounced during the flowering and yield formation stages. The expected rainfed corn yield in 2055 is likely to decline by 23%–34%, and the probability that the yield may not reach 50% of the potential yield ranges from 32% to 70% if no adaptation measures are instituted. Among the multiple uncertainty sources, the greenhouse gas emissions projection may have the strongest effect on the risk estimate of crop yield reduction. The effects from the various uncertainties can be offset to some degree when the uncertainties are considered jointly. An ensemble of GCMs with an equal weight may overestimate the risk of soil moisture deficits and crop yield reduction in comparison with an ensemble of GCMs with different weight determined by the root-mean-square error minimization method. The risk estimate presented in this paper implies that climate change adaptation is needed to avoid reduced corn yields and the resulting profit losses in central Illinois.
67High emissions could increase the future risk of maize drought in China by 60–70 %OpenAlex
Huicong Jia, Fang Chen, Chuanrong Zhang, et al.
Drought events have considerable direct and indirect economic, environmental, and social impacts, but few studies have analyzed and assessed future changes in drought disasters from a risk perspective to guide responses and adaptations thoroughly. Studying the potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield is therefore urgently needed. Intercomparison of the three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios based drought risks and yield loss of China was carried out using the climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and the hotspots of high drought risk regions were identified. This study found that the areas affected by severe maize drought (loss ratio larger than 0.2) accounted for 16.13 %, 20.79 %, and 18.87 % of the total national corn areas under three low, medium-to-high and high emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) respectively. The northwest China maize region, the ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry, and the western central northern China maize region have relatively high loss risk. Compared with SSP1-2.6, the yield loss rates increased with 70.73 % and 61.52 % of national corn areas for SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. There is a decrease in the areas with low-risk and a significant increase in the areas with high-risk for SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 compared to the SSP1-2.6. These results may provide theoretical support for agricultural drought risk reduction and adaptation planning to ensure food security under climate change.
68Warming temperatures will likely induce higher premium rates and government outlays for the U.S. crop insurance programOpenAlex
Jesse Tack, Keith H. Coble, Barry J. Barnett
Abstract Likely climate change impacts include damages to agricultural production resulting from increased exposure to extreme heat. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding impacts on crop insurance programs. We utilize a panel of U.S. corn yield data to predict the effect of warming temperatures on the mean and variance of yields, as well as crop insurance premium rates and producer subsidies. While we focus on corn, we demonstrate that the subsidy impacts are likely to carry over to other major program crops. We find that warming decreases mean yields and increases yield risk on average, which results in higher premium rates. Under a 1°C warming scenario, we find that premium rates at the 90% coverage level will increase by 39% on average; however, there is considerable statistical uncertainty around this average as the 95% confidence interval spans from 22% to 61%. We also find evidence of extensive cross‐sectional differences as the county‐level rate impacts range from a 10% reduction to a 63% increase. Results indicate that exposure to extreme heat and changes in the coefficient of variation are large drivers of the impacts. Under the 1°C warming scenario, we find that annual subsidy payments for the crop insurance program could increase by as much as $1.5 billion, representing a 22% increase relative to current levels. This estimate increases to 3.7 billion (57%) under a 2°C warming scenario. Our results correspond to a very specific counterfactual: the marginal effect of warming temperatures under current technology, production, and crop insurance enrollments. These impacts are shown to be smaller than the forecasted impacts under a commonly used end‐of‐century general circulation model for even the most optimistic CO 2 emissions projection.
69Rice yield formation under high day and night temperatures—A prerequisite to ensure future food securityOpenAlex
Jiemeng Xu, Amelia Henry, Nese Sreenivasulu
Increasing temperatures resulting from climate change dramatically impact rice crop production in Asia. Depending on the specific stage of rice development, heat stress reduces tiller/panicle number, decreases grain number per plant and lower grain weight, thus negatively impacting yield formation. Hence improving rice crop tolerance to heat stress in terms of sustaining yield stability under high day temperature (HDT), high night temperature (HNT), or combined high day and night temperature (HDNT) will bolster future food security. In this review article, we highlight the phenological alterations caused by heat and the underlying molecular-physiological and genetic mechanisms operating under different types of heat conditions (HDT, HNT, and HDNT) to understand heat tolerance. Based on our synthesis of HDT, HNT, and HDNT effects on rice yield components, we outline future breeding strategies to contribute to sustained food security under climate change.
70Rising temperatures reduce global wheat productionOpenAlex
Senthold Asseng, Frank Ewert, Pierre Martre, et al.
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
71Temperature‐driven harvest decisions amplify US winter wheat loss under climate warmingOpenAlex
Peng Zhu, Jennifer Burney
Most studies quantifying the impacts of climatic variability and warming on crop production have focused on yields and have overlooked potential areal and frequency responses, potentially biasing future projections of food security in a warming world. Here we analyze US winter wheat production from 1970 to 2017 and find that harvest area ratio (harvested area/planted area, HAR) has declined while yields have risen, standing in stark contrast to other US staple crops. Although lower profitability due to declining wheat prices appears to explain the HAR trend, fluctuating wheat yields-largely explained by temperature exposure-drive the interannual variation of HAR. Our analysis suggests that warming-induced declines in HAR are comparable in magnitude to heat-related yield losses, and lower wheat prices amplify the sensitivity of HAR to warming and yield variation. Although irrigation mitigates some temperature-driven yield effects, it does little to change HAR, likely due to infrastructure cost and limited influence on relative profitability. Our results suggest that an accurate quantification of climate impacts on crop production must account for harvested area response, and that future adaptation strategies should not only target crop choice and management but also harvest incentives.
73Land degradation and climate change: Global impact on wheat yieldsOpenAlex
Maria Raimondo, Concetta Nazzaro, Giuseppe Marotta, et al.
Abstract This study aims at estimating the wheat yield response to future challenges (land degradation and climate change) through a statistical emulator. Data from Global Agro‐ecological Zones on the overall wheat yields of 254 provinces for nine main wheat‐producing countries and corresponding climate and land suitability information were collected to estimate the statistical relationship between regressors and wheat yields. Once the statistical emulator was calibrated, three scenarios were developed to predict, separately and jointly, the impact of climate change and land degradation on wheat yields and productions in 2050 using the global climate model ECHAM4 information under the B2 scenario with the CO 2 fertilization effect. Results showed that under temperature and precipitation projections wheat yield would increase on average by 8% (first scenario); however, the impact of future land suitability (second scenario) on wheat yields would be negative, lowering the average yield (−5%), and overall wheat production (−14%). Combining both effects in the third scenario, future wheat yields would increase by 4.6%, while overall production will decrease by 5.5% since the harvest area will be reduced by 9.7%. Thus, land degradation more than climate change is likely to pose significant challenges for overall wheat production in the future.
74Assessing the impact of global climate changes on irrigated wheat yields and water requirements in a semi-arid environment of MoroccoOpenAlex
El Houssaine Bouras, Lionel Jarlan, Saïd Khabba, et al.
can counterbalance yield losses, since optimal yields could increase by 7% and 13% respectively at mid-century for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Finally, water requirements are expected to decrease by 13 to 42%, mainly in response to the shortening of the cycle. This decrease is associated with a change in temporal patterns, with the requirement peak coming two months earlier than under current conditions.
75Water for Agriculture: Maintaining Food Security under Growing ScarcityOpenAlex
Mark W. Rosegrant, Claudia Ringler, Tingju Zhu
Irrigated agriculture is the main source of water withdrawals, accounting for around 70% of all the world's freshwater withdrawals. The development of irrigated agriculture has boosted agricultural yields and contributed to price stability, making it possible to feed the world's growing population. Rapidly increasing nonagricultural demands for water, changing food preferences, global climate change, and new demands for biofuel production place increasing pressure on scarce water resources. Challenges of growing water scarcity for agriculture are heightened by the increasing costs of developing new water, soil degradation, groundwater depletion, increasing water pollution, the degradation of water-related ecosystems, and wasteful use of already developed water supplies. This article discusses the role of water for agriculture and food security, the challenges facing irrigated agriculture, and the range of policies, institutions, and investments needed to secure adequate access to water for food today and in the future.
76Impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a review and preliminary vulnerability mappingOpenAlex
Nishadi Eriyagama, Vladimir Smakhtin, Lalith Chandrapala, et al.
There is ample evidence to suggest that Sri Lanka’s climate has already changed. However, the bigger question of national importance is what Sri Lanka’s climate will look like in 50 or 100 years and how prepared the country is to face such changes. This report reviews the status of climate change (CC) research/activities in Sri Lanka in terms of observed and projected climatic changes, their impacts on water resources and agriculture, CC mitigation and adaptation, and research needs. The study also developed a pilot level CC Vulnerability Index, which was subsequently mapped at district level. The maps indicate that typical farming districts such as Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Ratnapura and Anuradhapura are the most vulnerable to CC due to their heavy reliance on primary agriculture.
79Modeling Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Agriculture Demand in the Volta Basin and other Basin Systems in GhanaOpenAlex
Barnabas Amisigo, Alyssa McCluskey, Richard Swanson
An assessment of the impacts of projected climate change on water availability and crop production in the Volta Basin and the southwestern and coastal basin systems of Ghana has been undertaken as a component of the impacts and adaptation study for Ghana by UNU-WIDER and the University of Ghana. Four climate change scenarios were considered in addition to a reference (no change) scenario—two dry and two wet scenarios. To conduct the analysis, a portion of a special framework using three water models was used; the framework is called the Strategic Analysis of Climate resilient Development (SACReD). First, the CliRun water balance model was used to simulate catchment runoffs using projected rainfall and temperature under the scenarios. Second, climate impacts on yields of the economically important Ghana crops were modeled using the AquaCrop software. Third, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software was used for the water allocation modeling. The results show that all water demands (municipal, hydropower, and agriculture) cannot be simultaneously met currently, or under any of the scenarios used, including the wet scenarios. This calls for an evaluation of groundwater as an additional source of water supply and an integrated water resources management plan in the catchments to balance demand with supply and ensure sustainable socio-economic development. In addition, the AquaCrop model forecasts negative impacts for the crop yields studied, with some crops and regions seeing larger impacts than others.
80Impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources and adaptation on the North China PlainOpenAlex
Xingguo Mo, Shi Hu, Zhonghui Lin, et al.
Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain (NCP), where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and sustainability of agricultural production with respect to the drying tendency since the 1950s. However, although potential evapotranspiration (ET) has shown a decreasing trend under climate change, actual ET has slightly increased with an acceleration in hydrological cycling. Global climate model (GCM) ensemble projections predict that by the 2050s, the increased crop water demand and intensified ET resulting from global warming will reduce water resources surplus (Precipitation–ET) about 4%–24% and increase significantly the irrigation water demand in crop growth periods. This study assesses possible mitigation and adaptation measures for enabling agricultural sustainability. It is revealed that reducing the sowing area of winter wheat (3.0%–15.9%) in water-limited basins, together with improvement in crop water-use efficiency would effectively mitigate water shortages and intensify the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.
82Satellites measure recent rates of groundwater depletion in California's Central ValleyOpenAlex
J. S. Famiglietti, Min‐Hui Lo, Sally Ho, et al.
In highly-productive agricultural areas such as California's Central Valley, where groundwater often supplies the bulk of the water required for irrigation, quantifying rates of groundwater depletion remains a challenge owing to a lack of monitoring infrastructure and the absence of water use reporting requirements. Here we use 78 months (October, 2003–March, 2010) of data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission to estimate water storage changes in California's Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins. We find that the basins are losing water at a rate of 31.0 ± 2.7 mm yr−1 equivalent water height, equal to a volume of 30.9 km3 for the study period, or nearly the capacity of Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States. We use additional observations and hydrological model information to determine that the majority of these losses are due to groundwater depletion in the Central Valley. Our results show that the Central Valley lost 20.4 ± 3.9 mm yr−1 of groundwater during the 78-month period, or 20.3 km3 in volume. Continued groundwater depletion at this rate may well be unsustainable, with potentially dire consequences for the economic and food security of the United States.
86Global impact of seawater intrusion on coastal agricultureOpenAlex
Aurora Ghirardelli, Eugenio Straffelini, Edward Park, et al.
Abstract Coastal agriculture faces escalating threats from seawater intrusion (SWI), jeopardizing global food security through freshwater scarcity, soil salinization and crop damage. However, research on SWI often fails to consider its impact on coastal agriculture. Linking georeferenced SWI data with cropland presence, this review examines SWI’s global distribution and primary drivers. Major attested hotspots include the Mediterranean, South and South-East Asia, and the Bohai Sea region in China. Approximately 87 Mha of cropland globally are vulnerable due to low elevation and coastal proximity, including regions where little to no literature has documented SWI. Main drivers include sea-level rise (SLR), drought, groundwater depletion, river modifications, tidal flooding and subsidence. Projections of SLR indicate cropland of North America, the Indian Subcontinent, and South-East Asia as high-risk for SWI. Additionally, regions like South-East Asia and the Indian Subcontinent are expected to experience significant demographic growth in coastal areas. Understanding present and future SWI dynamics is crucial for designing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies in coastal agriculture to support food supply.
88Global multi-model projections of green water scarcity risks in rainfed agriculture under 1.5 °C and 3 °C warmingOpenAlex
Lorenzo Rosa, Liyin He
Rainfed agriculture, sustaining billions globally, faces escalating threats from climate change, yet the role of green water (soil moisture) in quantifying these risks remains critically understudied. We quantify green water scarcity (GWS)—insufficient rainfall to meet crop needs—under 1.5°C and 3°C warming, tracking shifts in risk categories (reliable, risky, highly risky) based on monthly water stress duration. At baseline (1996–2005), 25 % of global rainfed croplands (183 million hectares, Mha) are classified as reliable (≤1 month of GWS annually). However, with 1.5°C and 3°C of global warming, the risk of GWS increases noticeably, resulting in the loss of 70 Mha and 106 Mha of reliable rainfed croplands, respectively, shifting them into risky or highly risky categories. This degradation jeopardizes food production for 0.8 billion people at 1.5°C and 1.2 billion at 3°C, disproportionately impacting regions reliant on rainfed systems. Crucially, 3°C warming doubles the spatial extent of severe GWS compared to 1.5°C, underscoring the nonlinear rise in agricultural risks with temperature. Our analysis reveals that limiting warming to 1.5°C could preserve croplands that feed 400 million people, highlighting the urgent need for climate mitigation. These findings demand integrated water-resilient strategies—prioritizing soil moisture conservation, adaptive crop choices, and sustainable irrigation—to safeguard global food security. By bridging green water dynamics with climate targets, we provide a roadmap for stabilizing rainfed agriculture in a warming world. • We quantify the location and timing of green water scarcity risks under 1.5°C and 3°C warming scenarios, revealing hotspots vulnerable to water stress • Future warming is expected to intensify green water scarcity, potentially affecting food production for 0.8–1.2 billion people • At 3°C warming, GWS risks double in magnitude and spatial extent compared to 1.5°C warming
90Diapause and overwintering of two spruce bark beetle speciesOpenAlex
Martin Schebeck, E. Matthew Hansen, Axel Schopf, et al.
Diapause, a strategy to endure unfavourable conditions (e.g. cold winters) is commonly found in ectothermic organisms and is characterized by an arrest of development and reproduction, a reduction of metabolic rate, and an increased resistance to adversity. Diapause, in addition to adaptations for surviving low winter temperatures, significantly influences phenology, voltinism and ultimately population growth. We review the literature on diapause and overwintering behaviour of two bark beetle species that affect spruce-dominated forests in the northern hemisphere, and describe and compare how these strategies can influence population dynamics. The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) (Coleoptera, Curculionidae) is the most important forest pest of Norway spruce in Europe. It enters an adult reproductive diapause that might be either facultative or obligate. Obligate diapausing beetles are considered strictly univoltine, entering this dormancy type regardless of environmental cues. Facultative diapausing individuals enter diapause induced by photoperiod, modified by temperature, thus being potentially multivoltine. The spruce beetle Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) infests all spruce species in its natural range in North America. A facultative prepupal diapause is averted by relatively warm temperatures, resulting in a univoltine life cycle, whereas cool temperatures induce prepupal diapause leading to a semivoltine cycle. An adult obligate diapause in D. rufipennis could limit bi- or multivoltinism. We discuss and compare the influence of diapause and overwinter survival on voltinism and population dynamics of these two species in a changing climate and provide an outlook on future research.
91Projecting Distribution of the Overwintering Population of<i>Sogatella furcifera</i>(Hemiptera: Delphacidae), in Yunnan, China With Analysis on Key Influencing Climatic FactorsOpenAlex
Shao‐Ji Hu, Xiaofei Liu, Da‐Ying Fu, et al.
Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is the most threatening migratory rice pest in Yunnan, China. S. furcifera overwinters in low- altitude basins and valleys in southern Yunnan and migrates northward in spring and summer of the following year, causing serious damage during migration. The overwintering distribution, areas, and spatial pattern of S. furcifera are relevant to the migration and outbreak of this pest. Based on a 4-yr field survey (2010-2013), this study projected areas suitable for S. furcifera to overwinter using a species distribution model, and analyzed the key influencing climatic factors using principal component analysis (PCA) and ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA). Our field survey showed that the northern latitudinal- and upper elevation limits of overwintering S. furcifera was 25.4° N and 1,608 m in western Yunnan and 24.2° N and 1,563 m in eastern Yunnan. The species distribution model produced a fragmented distribution pattern, with most of which in western Yunnan and only a few in eastern Yunnan. The PCA and ENFA analyses showed that the mean temperature of the driest quarter and the precipitation of the coldest quarter significantly influenced the distribution of S. furcifera in winter. The results suggested that the complex topography, spatial differences in winter temperatures, and host availability altogether determined the distribution of overwintering S. furcifera. Compared with previous surveys, the northern latitudinal- and upper elevation limits of overwintering S. furcifera were higher, while the population became rarer in some suitable areas due to change of farmland utilization in winter and possibly climate change.
92Surviving winter: diapause syndrome in the southern green stink bug <i>Nezara viridula</i> in the laboratory, in the field, and under climate change conditionsOpenAlex
Dmitry L. Musolin
The southern green stink bug Nezara viridula (L.) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) has long attracted attention not only as a serious pest of numerous agricultural crops, but also as a species expanding its range in many parts of the world. Nezara viridula has also been widely used as a model in different experimental studies. The present review focuses on reproductive (i.e. adult) winter diapause, which is the pivotal element of the species' seasonal cycle. Results from numerous field experiments and observations, as well as laboratory ecophysiological investigations conducted during the few last decades, are analyzed and interpreted. Experimental findings are used to describe in detail the dynamics of physiological changes during overwintering. Reproductive diapause in N. viridula is controlled in both sexes by photoperiodic conditions. The induction of diapause is associated with a reversible change of body colour from green or yellow to russet (or brown). The proper timing of adult emergence and the induction of diapause, as well as the size of adults, is vitally important for successful overwintering. Nezara viridula has been shown to respond strongly to the current trend in climate change by shifting the limit of its northern range, particularly in central Japan. Analysis of historic climate data suggests that the environmental conditions during the last few decades have become more favourable for the overwintering survival of N. viridula in many locations in central Japan. This has likely promoted the northward spread of the species. The relationships between reproductive diapause, reversible body colour change, overwintering success and the recent range expansion are analyzed. Perspectives of the range dynamics of the species are discussed in light of further predicted climate change.
93Phenotypic Plasticity Promotes Overwintering Survival in A Globally Invasive Crop Pest, Drosophila suzukiiOpenAlex
Dara G. Stockton, Anna Wallingford, Gregory M. Loeb
Spotted wing drosophila, Drosophila suzukii Matsumura, is a major pest of small fruit worldwide in temperate and subtropical growing regions. In Northern climates, D. suzukii likely overwinters locally under leaf litter and snow pack, but our understanding of the factors affecting thermal susceptibility is limited. While previous investigations of thermal susceptibility in this species have employed conventional static acclimation protocols, we aimed to determine whether gradual cooling, or dynamic acclimation, may extend the limits of known thermal tolerance by more closely approximating naturally occurring shifts in temperature. First, we assessed survival among adult and pupal D. suzukii using static acclimation. Then, we re-assessed survival using a novel dynamic acclimation method. We found that while static acclimation was sufficient to induce cold tolerance, dynamic acclimation significantly improved survival at temperatures as low as −7.5 °C. Following static acclimation, the lower lethal limit of adult D. suzukii was −1.1 °C in winter morphotype (WM) adults compared to 1.7 °C in non-acclimated summer morphotype (SM) adults. Dynamic acclimation reduced the lower limit to −5 °C in SM flies. At the end of our study 50% of WM flies survived 72 h at −7.5 °C. Below 0 °C pupal survival declined significantly regardless of acclimation procedure. However, pupal acclimation improved survival outcomes significantly compared to non-acclimated pupae, suggesting that while juvenile diapause is unlikely, cold hardening likely benefits those flies which may develop into the overwintering WM population. These data suggest that the degree of cold hardening is proportional to the thermal environment, a finding previously unrecognized in this species. Given the economic impact of this pest, these data may have important implications for offseason population monitoring and management. We discuss how phenotypic plasticity may drive geographical range expansion, and the impact of climate change on the spread of this species.
94The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Insect PestsOpenAlex
Sandra Skendžić, Monika Zovko, Ivana Pajač Živković, et al.
levels, and changing precipitation patterns have significant impacts on agricultural production and on agricultural insect pests. Changes in climate can affect insect pests in several ways. They can result in an expansion of their geographic distribution, increased survival during overwintering, increased number of generations, altered synchrony between plants and pests, altered interspecific interaction, increased risk of invasion by migratory pests, increased incidence of insect-transmitted plant diseases, and reduced effectiveness of biological control, especially natural enemies. As a result, there is a serious risk of crop economic losses, as well as a challenge to human food security. As a major driver of pest population dynamics, climate change will require adaptive management strategies to deal with the changing status of pests. Several priorities can be identified for future research on the effects of climatic changes on agricultural insect pests. These include modified integrated pest management tactics, monitoring climate and pest populations, and the use of modelling prediction tools.
95Effects of Climate Change in Agricultural Insect PestOpenAlex
Saroj Shrestha
have serious effects in every aspects of agriculture. Changed patterns in climatic factors like temperature, precipitation, humidity and other meteorological components are affecting the quality and quantity of agricultural commodities production. Along with direct impacts in crop productivity, climate change is threatening global food production via pest related losses of food crops. Each additional degree of temperature rise could cause yield losses from insect pests to increase by a further 10-25%. Climate change has increased pest population and their damage potential by expanding distribution, enhancing survivability and allowing to develop the adaptability of insect pest. Rising temperature, modified precipitation patterns, disturbed gaseous composition of atmosphere etc. are causing the change in population, mobility, behavior of insect pest. This change has been affecting the global agricultural production figure. Largest grain producers of the world viz. China, the US, France etc. are already facing massive infestation of crop pest and consequent yield losses. Climate change has been the talk of the century. Observed shifts in global climatic phenomena and consequent losses have caught the attention of the world. Climate Change can be illustrated as the phenomenon that includes change in environmental factors like temperature, humidity and precipitation over long period of time. Due to increased temperature, elevated CO2 and other harmful gases, irregular rainfall, global food production is under the threat. Global temperature has been steadily rising since 1900 with an increase of about 1C since then. A variety of numerical models representing the physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface simulate the response of the global climate systems to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and forecast how the climate is expected to change until 2050 and 2070. Effects of climate change can be observed in multiple ways. The assessment of climatic factors like temperature, precipitation (amount, frequency and timing), humidity, wind (velocity, timing), gaseous concentration etc. can provide real insights of climate change. As well as the examination of consequent effects of modification of these factors can also act as indicator of climate change. As the complexity of climate variables have direct concern in agriculture, the major impacts on agriculture is inevitable. As in agriculture, climate change can intervene in normal plant physiologies like photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, nutrient uptake, mineral balance, ionic exchange etc. As well as, climate change can interfere crop production via modification of population and function of pests and pathogens. Climate variables like temperature, humidity, precipitation etc. are the factors for the growth, development and multiplication of creatures like insects, fungi, bacteria, virus etc., pest population is also expected to change as with the change in the climate. Along with this, climate change is expected to bring changes in host plant resistance against diseases and pests. The resistance can be overcome by quicker disease cycles and modified physiologies of insect pest.
97Developing climate‐resilient crops: improving plant tolerance to stress combinationOpenAlex
Rosa M. Rivero, Ron Mittler, Eduardo Blumwald, et al.
Global warming and climate change are driving an alarming increase in the frequency and intensity of different abiotic stresses, such as droughts, heat waves, cold snaps, and flooding, negatively affecting crop yields and causing food shortages. Climate change is also altering the composition and behavior of different insect and pathogen populations adding to yield losses worldwide. Additional constraints to agriculture are caused by the increasing amounts of human-generated pollutants, as well as the negative impact of climate change on soil microbiomes. Although in the laboratory, we are trained to study the impact of individual stress conditions on plants, in the field many stresses, pollutants, and pests could simultaneously or sequentially affect plants, causing conditions of stress combination. Because climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of such stress combination events (e.g., heat waves combined with drought, flooding, or other abiotic stresses, pollutants, and/or pathogens), a concentrated effort is needed to study how stress combination is affecting crops. This need is particularly critical, as many studies have shown that the response of plants to stress combination is unique and cannot be predicted from simply studying each of the different stresses that are part of the stress combination. Strategies to enhance crop tolerance to a particular stress may therefore fail to enhance tolerance to this specific stress, when combined with other factors. Here we review recent studies of stress combinations in different plants and propose new approaches and avenues for the development of stress combination- and climate change-resilient crops.
98Closing the global ozone yield gap: Quantification and cobenefits for multistress toleranceOpenAlex
Gina Mills, Katrina Sharps, David Simpson, et al.
Increasing both crop productivity and the tolerance of crops to abiotic and biotic stresses is a major challenge for global food security in our rapidly changing climate. For the first time, we show how the spatial variation and severity of tropospheric ozone effects on yield compare with effects of other stresses on a global scale, and discuss mitigating actions against the negative effects of ozone. We show that the sensitivity to ozone declines in the order soybean > wheat > maize > rice, with genotypic variation in response being most pronounced for soybean and rice. Based on stomatal uptake, we estimate that ozone (mean of 2010-2012) reduces global yield annually by 12.4%, 7.1%, 4.4% and 6.1% for soybean, wheat, rice and maize, respectively (the "ozone yield gaps"), adding up to 227 Tg of lost yield. Our modelling shows that the highest ozone-induced production losses for soybean are in North and South America whilst for wheat they are in India and China, for rice in parts of India, Bangladesh, China and Indonesia, and for maize in China and the United States. Crucially, we also show that the same areas are often also at risk of high losses from pests and diseases, heat stress and to a lesser extent aridity and nutrient stress. In a solution-focussed analysis of these results, we provide a crop ideotype with tolerance of multiple stresses (including ozone) and describe how ozone effects could be included in crop breeding programmes. We also discuss altered crop management approaches that could be applied to reduce ozone impacts in the shorter term. Given the severity of ozone effects on staple food crops in areas of the world that are also challenged by other stresses, we recommend increased attention to the benefits that could be gained from addressing the ozone yield gap.
99Beat the stress: breeding for climate resilience in maize for the tropical rainfed environmentsOpenAlex
B. M. Prasanna, Jill E. Cairns, P.H. Zaidi, et al.
KEY MESSAGE: Intensive public sector breeding efforts and public-private partnerships have led to the increase in genetic gains, and deployment of elite climate-resilient maize cultivars for the stress-prone environments in the tropics. Maize (Zea mays L.) plays a critical role in ensuring food and nutritional security, and livelihoods of millions of resource-constrained smallholders. However, maize yields in the tropical rainfed environments are now increasingly vulnerable to various climate-induced stresses, especially drought, heat, waterlogging, salinity, cold, diseases, and insect pests, which often come in combinations to severely impact maize crops. The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), in partnership with several public and private sector institutions, has been intensively engaged over the last four decades in breeding elite tropical maize germplasm with tolerance to key abiotic and biotic stresses, using an extensive managed stress screening network and on-farm testing system. This has led to the successful development and deployment of an array of elite stress-tolerant maize cultivars across sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Further increasing genetic gains in the tropical maize breeding programs demands judicious integration of doubled haploidy, high-throughput and precise phenotyping, genomics-assisted breeding, breeding data management, and more effective decision support tools. Multi-institutional efforts, especially public-private alliances, are key to ensure that the improved maize varieties effectively reach the climate-vulnerable farming communities in the tropics, including accelerated replacement of old/obsolete varieties.
100Precision Agriculture and Water Conservation Strategies for Sustainable Crop Production in Arid RegionsOpenAlex
Yingying Xing, Xiukang Wang
The intensifying challenges posed by global climate change and water scarcity necessitate enhancements in agricultural productivity and sustainability within arid regions. This review synthesizes recent advancements in genetic engineering, molecular breeding, precision agriculture, and innovative water management techniques aimed at improving crop drought resistance, soil health, and overall agricultural efficiency. By examining cutting-edge methodologies, such as CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing, marker-assisted selection (MAS), and omics technologies, we highlight efforts to manipulate drought-responsive genes and consolidate favorable agronomic traits through interdisciplinary innovations. Furthermore, we explore the potential of precision farming technologies, including the Internet of Things (IoT), remote sensing, and smart irrigation systems, to optimize water utilization and facilitate real-time environmental monitoring. The integration of genetic, biotechnological, and agronomic approaches demonstrates a significant potential to enhance crop resilience against abiotic and biotic stressors while improving resource efficiency. Additionally, advanced irrigation systems, along with soil conservation techniques, show promise for maximizing water efficiency and sustaining soil fertility under saline-alkali conditions. This review concludes with recommendations for a further multidisciplinary exploration of genomics, sustainable water management practices, and precision agriculture to ensure long-term food security and sustainable agricultural development in water-limited environments. By providing a comprehensive framework for addressing agricultural challenges in arid regions, we emphasize the urgent need for continued innovation in response to escalating global environmental pressures.
101Resilience in Agriculture through Crop Diversification: Adaptive Management for Environmental ChangeOpenAlex
Brenda B. Lin
Recognition that climate change could have negative consequences for agricultural production has generated a desire to build resilience into agricultural systems. One rational and cost-effective method may be the implementation of increased agricultural crop diversification. Crop diversification can improve resilience in a variety of ways: by engendering a greater ability to suppress pest outbreaks and dampen pathogen transmission, which may worsen under future climate scenarios, as well as by buffering crop production from the effects of greater climate variability and extreme events. Such benefits point toward the obvious value of adopting crop diversification to improve resilience, yet adoption has been slow. Economic incentives encouraging production of a select few crops, the push for biotechnology strategies, and the belief that monocultures are more productive than diversified systems have been hindrances in promoting this strategy. However, crop diversification can be implemented in a variety of forms and at a variety of scales, allowing farmers to choose a strategy that both increases resilience and provides economic benefits.
102Indigenous knowledge in relation to climate change: adaptation practices used by the Xo Dang people of central VietnamOpenAlex
Chuong Van Huynh, Quy Ngoc Phuong Le, Nguyễn Thị Hồng, et al.
Even though indigenous knowledge (IK) is considered as one of the most effective strategies in response to climate change issues, this form is not being sufficiently integrated into the climate change planning and policy at both local and national levels in Vietnam. This study investigates the role of the traditional agricultural practices of the Xo Dang ethnic minority groups in Central Vietnam and provides insights into the factors that influence farmers to adopt these practices in response to climate change. Primary data was obtained through three focus group discussions and 87 household surveys involving the Xo Dang people through face-to-face semi-structured interviews in the Tra Doc commune, Bac Tra My district, Quang Nam province, Central Vietnam. The binary logistic regression model was used to examine the factors which have influenced the choices made by this community in response to climate change. The results showed that Xo Dang people were highly aware of climate change risks and had, in response, employed their current adaptation practices. The major adaptation strategies implemented by the Xo Dang people included the use of flora and fauna indicators, native plant varieties, the adjustment of planting calendars, irrigation practices, and the application of intercropping. The results indicated that the living years, their monthly farm incomes, and farmer's perceptions of ongoing climate change effects on their environment were the factors that significantly affected farmers' adaptation decisions. Understanding indigenous knowledge plays a fundamental role in the processes of deciding the appropriate adaptation techniques more effectively and making use of human resources. Therefore, policy makers should pay much attention to indigenous knowledge to combat climate change in future national policies and projects.
103Benefits of Crop Rotation on Climate Resilience and Its Prospects in ChinaOpenAlex
Taize Yu, Leo Mahe, Ying Li, et al.
In the context of climate change, increases in extreme weather have caused a series of problems, severely reduced crop yield, and caused a loss of agricultural cultivation. In addition, because of the high economic benefits, continuous cropping has become more popular but it leads to higher land-use intensity in production systems, aggravating the problems of extreme climate and seriously influencing China’s agricultural production and ecological environment. From this, the importance of improvements to cropping systems’ resilience to climate change is now much clearer than before. Crop rotation is an important tool for improving the climate resilience of the agricultural production system and effectively solving the shortcomings of the current continuous crop methodology. Crop rotation is indispensable in many national strategies, including food security, ecological environment development, and rural revitalization. This study aimed to promote the improvement of the crop rotation system in China and aimed to play a significant role in guiding China towards the large-scale development of crop rotation. This literature review shows that crop rotation can effectively enhance climate resilience and reduce the fragility of agricultural cropping systems. It then delves into the origin and development of crop rotation, and summarizes the characteristics of crop rotation. In view of the neglect of ecological benefits in China’s agricultural development, this article puts forward three suggestions: first, developing crop rotation technology based on local conditions; second, paying attention to the ecological benefits of crop rotation subsidies, followed by implementing appropriate and flexible subsidy policies; and, finally, carrying out rational evaluations and policy adjustment of crop rotation practices.
104Benefits and Risks of Intercropping for Crop Resilience and Pest ManagementOpenAlex
Christiana P. Huss, Katherine D. Holmes, Carmen K. Blubaugh
To combat climate change, farmers must innovate through ecological intensification to boost food production, increase resilience to weather extremes, and shrink the carbon footprint of agriculture. Intercropping (where alternative crops or noncrop plants are integrated with cash crops) can strengthen and stabilize agroecosystems under climate change by improving resource use efficiency, enhancing soil water holding capacity, and increasing the diversity and quality of habitat for beneficial insects that provide pollination services and natural pest control. Despite these benefits, intercropping has yet to be widely adopted due to perceived risks and challenges including decreased crop yield, increased management complexity, a steep learning curve for successful management, and increased susceptibility to pests. Here, we explore the major benefits of intercropping in agricultural systems for pest control and climate resilience reported in 24 meta-analyses, while addressing risks and barriers to implementation. Most studies demonstrate clear benefits of intercropping for weed, pathogen, insect pest control, relative yield, and gross profitability. However, relatively few studies document ecosystem services conferred by intercrops alongside labor costs, which are key to economic sustainability for farmers. In addition to clearer demonstrations of the economic viability of intercropping, farmers also need strong technical and financial support during the adoption process to help them troubleshoot the site-specific complexities and challenges of managing polycultures. Ecological intensification of agriculture requires a more strategic approach than simplified production systems and is not without risks and challenges. Calibrating incentive programs to reduce financial burdens of risk for farmers could promote more widespread adoption of intercropping.
105Grassy and Herbaceous Interrow Cover Crops in European Vineyards: A Review of Their Short-Term Effects on Water Management and Regulating Ecosystem ServicesOpenAlex
Mihály Zalai, Olimpia Bujtás, Miklós Sárospataki, et al.
Interrow management in vineyards significantly contributes to sustainable viticulture, particularly in water-scarce European regions. Grassy and herbaceous cover crops have been proven to enhance multiple regulating ecosystem services, including soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and improved water infiltration. However, the potential for water competition with vines necessitates region-specific approaches. This review aims to analyze the effects of different cover crop types and interrow tillage methods on water management and regulating ecosystem services, focusing on main European vineyard areas. The research involved a two-stage literature review by Google Scholar and Scopus, resulting in the identification of 67 relevant scientific publications, with 11 offering experimental data from European contexts. Selected studies were evaluated based on climate conditions, soil properties, slope characteristics, and interrow treatments. Findings highlight that the appropriate selection of cover crop species, sowing and mowing timing, and mulching practices can optimize vineyard resilience under climate stress. Practical recommendations are offered to help winegrowers adopt cost-effective and environmentally adaptive strategies, especially on sloped or shallow soils, where partial cover cropping is often the most beneficial for both yield and ecological balance. Cover crops and mulching reduce erosion, enhance vineyard soil moisture, relieve water stress consequences, and, as a result, these cover cropping techniques can improve yield and nutritional values of grapes (e.g., Brix, pH, K concentration), but effects vary; careful, site-specific, long-term management is essential for best results.
106Climate smart agriculture? Adaptation strategies of traditional agriculture to climate change in sub-Saharan AfricaOpenAlex
David John Okoronkwo, Remigius Ikechukwu Ozioko, Rachael Ujunwa Ugwoke, et al.
Introduction Sub-Saharan Africa faces increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns due to climate change, posing significant threats to food security and rural livelihoods. Traditional agriculture, deeply rooted in the region's history and culture, is particularly vulnerable to these changes. This study investigates the adaptation strategies of traditional agricultural farmers to climate change using southeast Nigeria as a microcosm of the broader challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa. Methods Multistage sampling procedure was used to select 75 farmer group leaders in the study region. Cross-sectional data were collected through semi-structured interview schedules and focus group discussions. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and principal component analysis using Varimax rotated matrix. Results Findings showed that farmers rely on face-to-face discussions with neighbors (76.0%), fellow farmers (66.7%), and radio (54.7%) as their primary sources of information on climate change. Results showed that traditional adaptation practices such as use of organic manure ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1"><mml:mover accent="false" class="mml-overline"><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>x</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mo accent="true">¯</mml:mo></mml:mover></mml:math> = 3.89), traditional organic composting ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M2"><mml:mover accent="false" class="mml-overline"><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>x</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mo accent="true">¯</mml:mo></mml:mover></mml:math> = 3.80), afforestation ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M3"><mml:mover accent="false" class="mml-overline"><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>x</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mo accent="true">¯</mml:mo></mml:mover></mml:math> = 3.71), agroforestry ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M4"><mml:mover accent="false" class="mml-overline"><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>x</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mo accent="true">¯</mml:mo></mml:mover></mml:math> = 3.61) were the topmost traditional agricultural practices use to cushion the effect of climate change. Conserving the overall soil health, soil moisture retention, reducing CO 2 emissions and maintaining crop productivity were the major reasons for using the traditional approaches. Climate-induced drought and high cost of accessing weather information ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M5"><mml:mover accent="false" class="mml-overline"><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>x</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mo accent="true">¯</mml:mo></mml:mover></mml:math> = 1.93), and inadequate funding ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M6"><mml:mover accent="false" class="mml-overline"><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>x</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mo accent="true">¯</mml:mo></mml:mover></mml:math> = 1.92), among others were the key constraints to adaptation. Discussion Results showed that farmers prioritize agronomic manipulation and integrated research approaches as key strategies to adapting traditional agriculture to climate anomalies. Although farmers used their indigenous practices, continuous learning and improvement through capacity-building workshops and progress monitoring are essential for effective climate change adaptation. Policymakers should invest in promoting indigenous knowledge, provide access to credit for climate-resilient infrastructure, promote climate-smart agricultural practices and foster collaborative research as the cornerstone for sustainable rural development.
107AI and Sustainable Agriculture Through Cost–Benefit Analysis of Smart Irrigation SystemsOpenAlex
Jami Venkata Suman, Kalisetti Purushotham Prasad, A. Sampath Dakshina Murthy, et al.
The advancing role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its application in agriculture have disrupted traditional agricultural practices, with smart irrigation systems representing one of the leading technologies enabling sustainable agriculture. Smart irrigation systems utilize real–time data, machine learning algorithms, and predictive analytics to better optimize irrigation water use, limit wasted resources, and improve the yields of crop products. The proposed research will assess the economic and environmental impacts of AI smart irrigation systems with a full costs–benefits analysis. The proposed research considers both the capital cost and operating cost of smart irrigation systems and compares these traditional irrigation practices while also examining the long–term benefits of potential water savings from Smart Irrigation Systems, expanded agricultural production, and reduced human labour. This will give context for measuring the impacts of Smart Irrigation Systems on farm businesses, including both opportunities and barriers to adoption. Additionally, using a formal literature review to lock down existing research and surveys of irrigation farmers to collect a field data set will provide the proposed researchers a collective sample to measure the efficacy of AI smart irrigation systems, identify barriers, compare opportunities, and measure performance under differing climate and soil properties. The research will find high and substantial respective levels of benefits from the implementation of AI–based smart systems, particularly in water–stressed systems with positive impacts on farm profitability, private, and environmental conservation. This research is essential for informing stakeholders of actions and the delivery of AI–enabled solutions in support of more sustainable agricultural practices.
108Can Precise Irrigation Support the Sustainability of Protected Cultivation? A Life-Cycle Assessment and Life-Cycle Cost AnalysisOpenAlex
Kledja Canaj, Angelo Parente, Massimiliano D’Imperio, et al.
To address sustainability challenges, agricultural advances in Mediterranean horticultural systems will necessitate a paradigmatic shift toward smart technologies, the impacts of which from a life cycle perspective have to be explored. Using life cycle thinking approaches, this study evaluated the synergistic environmental and economic performance of precise irrigation in greenhouse Zucchini production following a cradle-to-farm gate perspective. A cloud-based decision support system and a sensor-based irrigation management system (both referred to as “smart irrigation” approaches) were analyzed and compared to the farmer’s experience-based irrigation. The potential environmental indicators were quantified using life cycle assessment (LCA) with the ReCiPe 2016 method. For the economic analysis, life cycle costing (LCC) was applied, accounting not only for private product costs but also for so-called “hidden” or “external” environmental costs by monetizing LCA results. Smart irrigation practices exhibited similar performance, consuming on average 38.2% less irrigation water and energy, thus generating environmental benefits ranging from 0.17% to 62%. Single score results indicated that life cycle environmental benefits are up to 13% per ton of product. The cost-benefit analysis results showed that even though the implementation of smart irrigation imposes upfront investment costs, these costs are offset by the benefits to water and energy conservation associated with these practices. The reduction of investment costs and higher water costs in future, and lower internal rate of return can further enhance the profitability of smart irrigation strategies. The overall results of this study highlight that smart and innovative irrigation practices can enhance water-energy efficiency, gaining an economic advantage while also reducing the environmental burdens of greenhouse cultivation in a Mediterranean context.
109Editorial: Precision control technology and application in agricultural pest and disease controlOpenAlex
Yunchao Tang, Chao Chen, Antonio C. Leite, et al.
EDITORIAL article Front. Plant Sci., 27 February 2023Sec. Sustainable and Intelligent Phytoprotection Volume 14 - 2023 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2023.1163839
110The Impact of Adopting Green ControlTechnologies on Farmers’ Income: Basedon Research Data from Tea Farmersin 16 Provinces of ChinaOpenAlex
Feng Gao, XU Jiang-hong, Dongxu Li, et al.
The adoption of green control technologies in agriculture is an important approach to ensure the quality and safety of agricultural products, address agricultural pollution from its source, and promote increased productivity and income in agriculture, thereby driving high-quality agricultural development. This paper is based on production and operation data from 2,155 tea farmers in 16 major tea-producing provinces in China. Using an endogenous transformation model from the perspective of the value chain, it empirically analyzes the impact of adopting green control technologies on tea farmers’ income and draws three conclusions. First, the adoption of green control technologies significantly promotes income growth for tea farmers. Second, the awareness of tea farmers regarding pesticide residue limits and the exchange of pest control techniques among tea farmers significantly enhance the adoption of green control technologies. Third, the income effects of adopting green control technologies differ across different stages of the value chain, with the income growth in the cultivation stage being lower than that in the processing and marketing stages. Finally, based on the analysis and relevant research by scholars, four targeted suggestions are proposed: (1) Increase efforts to promote the adoption of green control technologies and enhance farmers’ willingness to adopt them. (2) Promote education and training on green control technologies for tea farmers. (3) Ensure fair distribution of benefits along the agricultural value chain. (4) Strengthen the promotion of green control technologies at the market and consumer end.
111The Impact of Government Subsidies and Quality Certification on Farmers’ Adoption of Green Pest Control TechnologiesOpenAlex
Yuying Yang, Yubin Wang
Shandong and Henan provinces face significant pest and disease issues, creating a strong demand for green pest control technologies. This paper analyzes the impact of government subsidies and quality certification on farmers’ adoption of green pest control technologies, based on 419 survey responses collected through stratified sampling in Shandong and Henan provinces in 2024, using the Heckman two-stage model. The results show the following: (1) Government subsidies and quality certification significantly promote farmers’ adoption of green pest control technologies, with regression coefficients of 0.260 and 0.493, respectively. (2) An interaction effect exists between government subsidies and quality certification on farmers’ adoption of green pest control technologies, with a coefficient of 0.454. For a given government subsidy, higher quality certification levels increase the likelihood of farmers adopting green pest control technologies. (3) From the perspective of human capital quantity, there is obvious heterogeneity in the impact of government subsidies and quality certification on farmers’ adoption of green pest control technologies. (4) From the perspective of generational differences, quality certification has obvious heterogeneity on farmers’ adoption of green pest control technologies, while there is no obvious generational difference in government subsidies. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a stable and multi-channel government transfer payment system, improve the construction of the agricultural product quality traceability system, take a two-pronged approach, and complement each other’s strengths to build a targeted incentive mechanism based on different groups of farmers.
112Can mechanized pesticide application help reduce pesticide use and increase crop yield? Evidence from rice farmers in Jiangsu province, ChinaOpenAlex
Junpeng Li, Puneet Vatsa, Wanglin Ma
This study is devoted to analyzing the effects of outsourcing machinery-intensive farming activities vis-à-vis using mechanized equipment in-house on pesticide use, utilizing cross-sectional data collected from rice farmers in Jiangsu province, China. The control function approach is utilized to address the endogeneity of the decision to outsource pesticide application or complete the task in-house. Our results suggest that outsourcing pesticide application decreases pesticide expenditure but in-house application using mechanized equipment increases it. Specifically, outsourcing pesticide application reduces pesticide expenditure by about 81 yuan per mu or around 0.18 yuan per kilogram of rice produced. In comparison, the in-house application using mechanized equipment increases pesticide expenditure by 118 yuan per mu or by 0.14 yuan per kilogram of rice output. We also find that both outsourcing and in-house pesticide applications increase rice yield.
113Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction systemOpenAlex
Zengchao Hao, Amir AghaKouchak, Navid Nakhjiri, et al.
Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe.
114Examining Rapid Onset Drought Development Using the Thermal Infrared–Based Evaporative Stress IndexOpenAlex
Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, et al.
Abstract Reliable indicators of rapid drought onset can help to improve the effectiveness of drought early warning systems. In this study, the evaporative stress index (ESI), which uses remotely sensed thermal infrared imagery to estimate evapotranspiration (ET), is compared to drought classifications in the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and standard precipitation-based drought indicators for several cases of rapid drought development that have occurred across the United States in recent years. Analysis of meteorological time series from the North American Regional Reanalysis indicates that these events are typically characterized by warm air temperature and low cloud cover anomalies, often with high winds and dewpoint depressions that serve to hasten evaporative depletion of soil moisture reserves. Standardized change anomalies depicting the rate at which various multiweek ESI composites changed over different time intervals are computed to more easily identify areas experiencing rapid changes in ET. Overall, the results demonstrate that ESI change anomalies can provide early warning of incipient drought impacts on agricultural systems, as indicated in crop condition reports collected by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. In each case examined, large negative change anomalies indicative of rapidly drying conditions were either coincident with the introduction of drought in the USDM or lead the USDM drought depiction by several weeks, depending on which ESI composite and time-differencing interval was used. Incorporation of the ESI as a data layer used in the construction of the USDM may improve timely depictions of moisture conditions and vegetation stress associated with flash drought events.
115Advancing agriculture through IoT, Big Data, and AI: A review of smart technologies enabling sustainabilityOpenAlex
Nurzaman Ahmed, Nadia Shakoor
This review addresses a critical aspect of modern agriculture: integrating the Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies to monitor and mitigate agricultural carbon emissions. We focus on the role of these advanced technologies in enhancing Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) and promoting sustainable farming practices. The paper provides a comprehensive review of how IoT, Big Data, and AI can be combined to monitor carbon footprints and support broader sustainability objectives in agriculture. As a key contribution, we propose a feasible, end-to-end system architecture tailored to the assessment of carbon footprint, combining IoT-enabled sensing, real-time data analytics, and predictive modeling. This study highlights the tangible benefits of these technologies through real-world case studies and evaluates their effectiveness in improving emission monitoring, operational efficiency, and environmental compliance. Furthermore, challenges such as data interoperability, device energy efficiency, and implementation costs are critically analyzed, providing insights into existing research gaps. The paper also identifies future directions, including scalable IoT-based carbon markets, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for precision agriculture, and blockchain solutions for transparent carbon credit trading. The goal is to offer actionable insights into the adoption of cutting-edge technologies to achieve carbon neutrality and environmental sustainability in the agriculture sector.
116Adoption of Precision Technologies by Brazilian Dairy Farms: The Farmer’s PerceptionOpenAlex
Rebeca Silvi, Luiz Gustavo Ribeiro Pereira, C.A.V. Paiva, et al.
The use of precision farming technologies, such as milking robots, automated calf feeders, wearable sensors, and others, has significantly increased in dairy operations over the last few years. The growing interest in farming technologies to reduce labor, maximize productivity, and increase profitability is becoming noticeable in several countries, including Brazil. Information regarding technology adoption, perception, and effectiveness in dairy farms could shed light on challenges that need to be addressed by scientific research and extension programs. The objective of this study was to characterize Brazilian dairy farms based on technology usage. Factors such as willingness to invest in precision technologies, adoption of sensor systems, farmer profile, farm characteristics, and production indexes were investigated in 378 dairy farms located in Brazil. A survey with 22 questions was developed and distributed via Google Forms from July 2018 to July 2020. The farms were then classified into seven clusters: (1) top yield farms; (2) medium–high yield, medium-tech; (3) medium yield and top high-tech; (4) medium yield and medium-tech; (5) young medium–low yield and low-tech; (6) elderly medium–low yield and low-tech; and (7) low-tech grazing. The most frequent technologies adopted by producers were milk meters systems (31.7%), milking parlor smart gate (14.5%), sensor systems to detect mastitis (8.4%), cow activity meter (7.1%), and body temperature (7.9%). Based on a scale containing numerical values (1–5), producers indicated “available technical support” (mean; σ2) (4.55; 0.80) as the most important decision criterion involved in adopting technology, followed by “return on investment—ROI” (4.48; 0.80), “user-friendliness” (4.39; 0.88), “upfront investment cost” (4.36; 0.81), and “compatibility with farm management software” (4.2; 1.02). The most important factors precluding investment in precision dairy technologies were the need for investment in other sectors of the farm (36%), the uncertainty of ROI (24%), and lack of integration with other farm systems and software (11%). Farmers indicated that the most useful technologies were automatic milk meters systems (mean; σ2) (4.05; 1.66), sensor systems for mastitis detection (4.00; 1.57), automatic feeding systems (3.50; 2.05), cow activity meter (3.45; 1.95), and in-line milk analyzers (3.45; 1.95). Overall, the concerns related to data integration, ROI, and user-friendliness of technologies are similar to those of dairy farms located in other countries. Increasing available technical support for sensing technology can have a positive impact on technology adoption.
117Impact of climate change on agricultural production; Issues, challenges, and opportunities in AsiaOpenAlex
Muhammad Habib ur Rahman, Ashfaq Ahmad, Ahsan Raza, et al.
Agricultural production is under threat due to climate change in food insecure regions, especially in Asian countries. Various climate-driven extremes, i.e., drought, heat waves, erratic and intense rainfall patterns, storms, floods, and emerging insect pests have adversely affected the livelihood of the farmers. Future climatic predictions showed a significant increase in temperature, and erratic rainfall with higher intensity while variability exists in climatic patterns for climate extremes prediction. For mid-century (2040-2069), it is projected that there will be a rise of 2.8°C in maximum temperature and a 2.2°C in minimum temperature in Pakistan. To respond to the adverse effects of climate change scenarios, there is a need to optimize the climate-smart and resilient agricultural practices and technology for sustainable productivity. Therefore, a case study was carried out to quantify climate change effects on rice and wheat crops and to develop adaptation strategies for the rice-wheat cropping system during the mid-century (2040-2069) as these two crops have significant contributions to food production. For the quantification of adverse impacts of climate change in farmer fields, a multidisciplinary approach consisted of five climate models (GCMs), two crop models (DSSAT and APSIM) and an economic model [Trade-off Analysis, Minimum Data Model Approach (TOAMD)] was used in this case study. DSSAT predicted that there would be a yield reduction of 15.2% in rice and 14.1% in wheat and APSIM showed that there would be a yield reduction of 17.2% in rice and 12% in wheat. Adaptation technology, by modification in crop management like sowing time and density, nitrogen, and irrigation application have the potential to enhance the overall productivity and profitability of the rice-wheat cropping system under climate change scenarios. Moreover, this paper reviews current literature regarding adverse climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, associated main issues, challenges, and opportunities for sustainable productivity of agriculture to ensure food security in Asia. Flowing opportunities such as altering sowing time and planting density of crops, crop rotation with legumes, agroforestry, mixed livestock systems, climate resilient plants, livestock and fish breeds, farming of monogastric livestock, early warning systems and decision support systems, carbon sequestration, climate, water, energy, and soil smart technologies, and promotion of biodiversity have the potential to reduce the negative effects of climate change.
118Achievements, challenges and opportunities of rainwater harvesting in the Ethiopia context: a reviewOpenAlex
Negash Tessema, Asfaw Kebede Kassa, Dame Yadeta, et al.
Abstract Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is a novel way for developing countries to construct and maintain long-term water supply systems. As a result, this review paper draws on actual findings and lessons learned from various places in Ethiopia to assess the country's achievements and opportunities when it comes to RWH, as well as to guide future alternatives toward its sustainability. RWH acts as to help throughout the rainy season's dry spells, as a potential asset for the dry season, aiding human and livestock consumption as well as crop production through irrigation. So, for successful well-organized rain water collection, watershed treatment, seepage and evaporation control, soil and water conservation, conservation tillage, and integration of low-cost water lifting techniques and family drip systems should all be undertaken. Given that the country has not been significantly modernized, it has outdated experience in the operation and exploitation of RWH systems. Aside from financial inadequacies, historical and political instability, lack of understanding among farmers, and resistance to new technologies, the country has opportunities and has made some progress on RWH systems. In general, RWH could enable smallholder farmers to diversify their crops, thereby enhancing household food security, dietary status, and economic return. In addition, the much-needed green revolution and climate change adaptations should combine RWH ideas with agronomic principles in the country. More work is needed to strengthen indigenous practices and share best practices to a larger scale.
119Suitability of Water Harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia: A First Step towards a Mesoscale Hydrological Modeling FrameworkOpenAlex
Yihun T. Dile, Johan Rockström, Louise Karlberg
Extreme rainfall variability has been one of the major factors to famine and environmental degradation in Ethiopia. The potential for water harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin was assessed using two GIS-based Multicriteria Evaluation methods: (1) a Boolean approach to locate suitable areas for in situ and ex situ systems and (2) a weighted overlay analysis to classify suitable areas into different water harvesting suitability levels. The sensitivity of the results was analyzed to the influence given to different constraining factors. A large part of the basin was suitable for water harvesting: the Boolean analysis showed that 36% of the basin was suitable for in situ and ex situ systems, while the weighted overlay analysis showed that 6–24% of the basin was highly suitable. Rainfall has the highest influence on suitability for water harvesting. Implementing water harvesting in nonagricultural land use types may further increase the benefit. Assessing water harvesting suitability at the larger catchment scale lays the foundation for modeling of water harvesting at mesoscale, which enables analysis of the potential and implications of upscaling of water harvesting practices for building resilience against climatic shocks. A complete water harvesting suitability study requires socioeconomic analysis and stakeholder consultation.
120Do better agricultural extension and climate information sources enhance adaptive capacity? A micro-level assessment of farm households in rural IndiaOpenAlex
Chandan Kumar Jha, Vijaya Gupta
Purpose The farmers used several information sources to gather information about the climatic variability and modern agricultural practices to cope with climate change. The choice of adaptation strategies and the successful implication of adaptation strategies depend on accurate, timely information on the climate variability and precise technical details of adaptation strategies. By keeping the importance of climate information and agricultural extension information in the center, this study aims to conduct a micro-level evaluation of farmers’ choice of climate information, agriculture extension services and agricultural credit sources. This study’s primary objective is to understand how the different sources of climate information and agricultural extension influence farm household adaptation decisions. Design/methodology/approach This study has been conducted in three subs agro-climatic zone of the Middle Gangetic Plain region, which falls in India’s Bihar state. This paper has randomly selected seven districts from these three subs agro-climatic zone to collect the data. The analysis of this study is based on survey data collected from 700 farm households. This study has used descriptive statistics and a logistic regression model to assess the sources of climate information, agricultural extension and credit sources and how these sources influence farm households’ adaptation decisions. Findings The result of this study shows farmers are using different traditional (sharing experience, newspaper and radio), information and communication technology (mobile and TV) and institutional arrangements (agricultural officer and meteorological department) in the study area. The study’s finding identifies different farm households’ different sources and how these options farming farmers’ adaptation decisions. The study further revealed that institutional factors such as extension services and access to information on climate change increase the probability of adopting knowledge-intensive adaptation strategies such as soil conservation, water conservation, crop insurance and planting horticulture and vegetables. Research limitations/implications The study has conducted a micro-level assessment of adaptation behavior at the local level to understand the factor influencing the adaptation decision. This study’s finding is useful in designing the appropriate policy framework for the farm household’s capacity building to enhance their technical skills and awareness toward the institutional arrangements. Originality/value This paper’s finding pointed out institutional arrangements’ requirement to improve adaptive capacity to make long-term strategic decisions to cope with climate change.
121Determinants of rainwater harvesting practices in rural communities of Limpopo Province, South AfricaOpenAlex
Selelo Matimolane, Sheldon Strydom, Fhumulani I. Mathivha, et al.
Most rural parts of South Africa’s Limpopo Province are faced with limited water access, provision, and inadequate infrastructure for water reticulation. With over 80% of the provincial population living in rural areas, water availability for domestic and agricultural use has become a source of concern. Rainwater harvesting (RWH) has emerged as an important source of alternative water supply for underserved communities during the summer rainfall season. RWH refers to the collection, storage and conservation of surface runoff for agricultural production and domestic uses. This study assessed the socio-economic characteristics and determinants of RWH practices in rural communities of Limpopo Province. Descriptive statistics were used to describe households’ socio-economic characteristics and logistic regression was used to examine the determinants of RWH practices in rural communities. The analysis was based on a survey of 478 households selected using convenience and purposive sampling techniques. The key findings indicate that a significant number of households (63.8%) practised RWH to augment available water for domestic use, albeit few households used the harvested water for portable use. Further analysis showed that a majority of those who adopted RWH practices were female (64.24%). The results of the empirical models indicate that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between perception, age and level of education in determining the adoption of RWH practices. The findings underline the importance of understanding the adoption of RWH in rural communities and highlight the vital role of education, knowledge, and income in rural communities with limited or no access to a water supply. The study highlights the need for policy to promote the benefits of harvesting rainwater for domestic use.
122Transforming Food Systems in Africa under Climate Change Pressure: Role of Climate-Smart AgricultureOpenAlex
Robert B. Zougmoré, Peter Läderach, Bruce Campbell
Low-income producers and consumers of food in Africa are more vulnerable to climate change, owing to their comparatively limited ability to invest in more adapted institutions and technologies under increasing climatic risks. Therefore, the way we manage our food systems needs to be urgently changed if the goal is to achieve food security and sustainable development more quickly. This review paper analyzes the nexus “climate-smart agriculture-food systems-sustainable development” in order to draw sound ways that could allow rapid transformation of food systems in the context of climate change pressure. We followed an integrative review approach based on selected concrete example-experiences from ground-implemented projects across Africa (Ghana, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, in West Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania in East Africa). Mostly composed of examples from the Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) Research Program of the CGIAR (former Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research) and its partners, these also included ground initiatives from non-CGIAR that could provide demonstrable conditions for a transformative agriculture and food systems. The lessons learnt from the ground implementation of climate-smart agriculture (CSA), in the African context, were instrumental to informing the actions areas of the food-system transformation framework suggested in this paper (reroute, de-risk, reduce, and realign). Selected CSA example-cases to inform these action areas included 24 initiatives across Africa, but with a focus on the following studies for an in-depth analysis: (1) the climate-smart village approach to generate knowledge on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies and practices for their scaling, (2) the use of climate information services (CIS) to better manage climate variability and extremes, and (3) the science–policy interfacing to mainstream CSA into agricultural development policies and plans. The analysis of these examples showed that CSA can contribute driving a rapid change of food systems in Africa through: (1) the implementation of relevant climate-smart technologies and practices to reroute farming and rural livelihoods to new climate-resilient and low-emission trajectories; (2) the development and application of weather and climate information services (WCIS) that support de-risking of livelihoods, farms, and value chains in the face of increasing vagaries of weather and extreme events; (3) the use of climate-smart options that minimize waste of all the natural resources used for growing, processing, packaging, transporting, and marketing food, and therefore mitigating the carbon footprint attached to this food loss and waste; and (4) the realignment of policies and finance that facilitate action in the four proposed action areas through the identification of news ways to mobilize sustainable finance and create innovative financial mechanisms and delivery channels.
123Knowledge, Perception and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change among Farmers in Southern Agricultural Zone of Nasarawa State, NigeriaOpenAlex
ES Salau, E. G. Onuk, A Ibrahim
Climate change is perhaps the most serious environmental threat facing mankind worldwide. The study was designed to assess the knowledge, perception and adaptation strategies to climate change among farmers in southern agricultural zone of Nasarawa state. The specific objectives were to: identify the sources of information on climate change by respondents; assess their knowledge and perception of climate change phenomenon; identify adaptation strategies used and the factors militating against their adaptive capacity. A multi-stage sampling procedure was used to select a total of 150 respondents from the zone for the study. Data collection was through an interview schedule. Simple descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage and mean scores were used to achieve the objectives. The null hypothesis was tested using a multiple regression model. The mean age of the respondents was 48 years. Majority (89.33%) of them were males while their average farming experience was 27 years. Most (38%) of the farmers in the area had no formal education and majority (76.7%) of them used inherited farmlands. Annual income level of the respondents was encouraging with a mean of N326, 461.30 per annum. Most (68%) of them relied on radio as their major source of information on climate change. The perceived indicators of climate change included excessive high temperatures, low and irregular rainfall pattern and low crop yields among others. Adaptation strategies used by the respondents included agro-forestry practices, crop diversification, use of organic manures, planting of early maturing and disease/drought resistant varieties. The major constraints to adaptation by the respondents were inadequate finance, poor infrastructures, unfavourable government/trade policies and poor technology. It was recommended that adult education programmes should be strengthened in the area to reduce illiteracy among farmers. Extension agents in the area should incorporate climate change information in their extension messages while government should intensify efforts in the area of integrated rural development.
124Classification and characterisation of livestock production systems in northern TanzaniaOpenAlex
William A. de Glanville, Alicia Davis, Kathryn J. Allan, et al.
Abstract Livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa face a growing range of pressures, including climate change, land loss, restrictive policies, and population increase. Widespread adaptation in response to such pressures can lead to the emergence of new, non-traditional typologies of livestock production. We sought to characterise livestock production systems in northern Tanzania, a region undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change. Questionnaire and spatial data were collected from 404 livestock-keeping households in 21 villages in Arusha and Manyara Regions in 2016. Multiple factor analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to classify households into livestock production systems based on household-level characteristics. Indicators of vulnerability, including household-level reports of hunger, illness, livestock loss, land loss and crop losses were compared between production systems. Three distinct clusters emerged through this process. The ethnic, environmental and livestock management characteristics of households in each cluster broadly mapped onto traditional definitions of ‘pastoral’, ‘agro-pastoral’ and ‘smallholder’ livestock production in the region, suggesting that this quantitative classification system is complementary to more qualitative classification methods. Our findings also suggest that traditional systems of livestock production continue to persist in northern Tanzania. Nonetheless, we found indicators of substantial change within livestock production systems, most notably the adoption of crop agriculture in the majority of pastoral households. Smallholder households were less likely than either pastoral or agro-pastoral households to report hunger, illness, and livestock, land or crop losses. Livelihoods that rely solely on livestock are relatively rare in northern Tanzania, which represents an important shift in production in the region, particularly among pastoralists. Policy initiatives to improve household and community well-being should recognise the continuing distinctiveness of traditional livestock production systems in the region.
125Revisiting Emergency Food Reserve Policy and Practice under Disaster and Extreme Climate EventsOpenAlex
Jonatan Lassa, Paul Teng, Mely Caballero‐Anthony, et al.
All food systems will continue to be affected by disasters and extreme climate events. Triggered by recent food crises around the world and climate change concerns, some governments have been trying to develop more robust and resilient food systems. One of the oldest options for many governments is to stockpile emergency food reserves for the purpose of food security and disaster preparedness. In the aftermath of the world food price crises in 2007–2008 and 2011, some governments in Asia have been maintaining emergency food reserves to ensure greater supply and price stability. Disasters and extreme climate events help governments to justify emergency food reserves. This research examined emergency food reserve policies in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia. Emergency food reserves emerged as a practice where the shared objectives of development, disaster risk reduction, and climate change adaptation have been demonstrated by governments. The findings suggest that most governments maintain the strong view that adequate emergency food reserves can buffer national food price shocks and shocks from disasters and climate change, and soften disruptions in trade due to export bans during times of disasters and climate emergencies.
126Can we free the world of hunger and Malthus’s shadow forever?OpenAlex
Shenggen Fan, Fan, Shenggen
In a little over a decade, the global population is expected to reach 8 billion. The task of feeding this growing population will become harder with rising natural resource constraints, declining or stagnant crop productivity, more frequent extreme weather events, and climate change. These challenges, especially the ensuing increase and volatility of food prices, threaten global food and nutrition security. The Malthusian prediction that population growth would eventually outpace agricultural production growth can be prevented. Technological successes in food and agriculture, such as the Green Revolution, demonstrate that rapid productivity increases in food production can be achieved. However, the goal of achieving global food and nutrition security must encompass food availability, accessibility, and utilisation, as well as the stability of all of these conditions over time. This paper highlights major actions needed to achieve these important objectives while simultaneously adopting a sustainable development approach. The actions include: • investments in agriculture and technological innovations to boost productivity, especially smallholder productivity, enhance the nutritional value of food crops, and increase resource-use efficiency; • productive social safety nets to protect poor and vulnerable groups, especially women and children, to ensure their access to nutritious and healthy food in the short run, and improve their human capital for long term prosperity; • global coordination to reduce food price volatility, including establishing strategic emergency food reserves, ensuring open trade, and eliminating grain-based biofuel production.
127Climate shocks and nutrition: The role of food security policies and programs in enhancing maternal and neonatal survival in Niger.PubMed
Shelley Walton, Nasreen S Jessani, Heather Jue-Wong, et al.
Matern Child Nutr. 2024 Jan;20(1):e13566. doi: 10.1111/mcn.13566. Epub 2023 Oct 4.
Niger is afflicted with high rates of poverty, high fertility rates, frequent environmental crises, and climate change. Recurrent droughts and floods have led to chronic food insecurity linked to poor maternal and neonatal nutrition outcomes in vulnerable regions. We analyzed maternal and neonatal nutrition trends and subnational variability between 2000 and 2021 with a focus on the implementation of policies and programs surrounding two acute climate shocks in 2005 and 2010. We used four sources of data: (a) national household surveys for maternal and newborn nutritional indicators allowing computation of trends and differences at national and regional levels; (b) document review of food security reports; (c) 30 key informant interviews and; (d) one focus group discussion. Many food security policies and nutrition programs were enacted from 2000 to 2020. Gains in maternal and neonatal nutrition indicators were more significant in targeted vulnerable regions of Maradi, Zinder, Tahoua and Tillabéri, from 2006 to 2021. However, poor access to financial resources for policy execution and suboptimal implementation of plans have hindered progress. In response to the chronic climate crisis over the last 20 years, the Nigerien government and program implementers have demonstrated their commitment to reducing food insecurity and enhancing resilience to climate shocks by adopting a deliberate multisectoral effort. However, there is more that can be achieved with a continued focus on vulnerable regions to build resilience, targeting high risk populations, and investing in infrastructure to improve health systems, food systems, agriculture systems, education systems, and social protection.
128Beyond technology transfer: Innovation cooperation to advance sustainable development in developing countriesOpenAlex
Nimisha Pandey, Heleen de Coninck, Ambuj Sagar
Abstract While technology continues to be seen as a key element in the move to sustainable development, international efforts around technology to support sustainable development transitions in developing countries have failed to yield results congruent with the needs. This review paper aims to contribute to, and help change, the conversation on international technology transfer (ITT) such that it leads to more productive international cooperative efforts for sustainable development in developing nations. We examine ITT in the health, agriculture, and climate and energy areas, juxtaposing it with relevant literature. Supporting domestic and international actors and processes, we highlight what are key elements for success in these areas of action to more effectively implement the SDGs in energy and environment in developing countries. Finally, we suggest that “innovation cooperation” is a better framing than “technology transfer” for advancing international efforts on technology for sustainable development. Such a framing allows for a broader and more comprehensive perspective on technology‐related cooperation between countries. It also emphasizes the need for equitable partnerships rather than donor–recipient relationships and for development of local innovation capabilities, leading to more effective marshaling of technologies to help developing countries achieve sustainable development. This article is categorized under: Energy Policy and Planning > Economics and Policy Energy and Climate > Systems and Infrastructure Energy Research & Innovation > Climate and Environment
129Climate-smart agriculture: adoption, impacts, and implications for sustainable developmentOpenAlex
Wanglin Ma, Dil Bahadur Rahut
Abstract The 19 papers included in this special issue examined the factors influencing the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices among smallholder farmers and estimated the impacts of CSA adoption on farm production, income, and well-being. Key findings from this special issue include: (1) the variables, including age, gender, education, risk perception and preferences, access to credit, farm size, production conditions, off-farm income, and labour allocation, have a mixed (either positive or negative) influence on the adoption of CSA practices; (2) the variables, including labour endowment, land tenure security, access to extension services, agricultural training, membership in farmers’ organizations, support from non-governmental organizations, climate conditions, and access to information consistently have a positive impact on CSA adoption; (3) diverse forms of capital (physical, social, human, financial, natural, and institutional), social responsibility awareness, and digital advisory services can effectively promote CSA adoption; (4) the establishment of climate-smart villages and civil-society organizations enhances CSA adoption by improving their access to credit; (5) CSA adoption contributes to improved farm resilience to climate change and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions; (6) CSA adoption leads to higher crop yields, increased farm income, and greater economic diversification; (7) integrating CSA technologies into traditional agricultural practices not only boosts economic viability but also contributes to environmental sustainability and health benefits; and (8) there is a critical need for international collaboration in transferring technology for CSA. Overall, the findings of this special issue highlight that through targeted interventions and collaborative efforts, CSA can play a pivotal role in achieving food security, poverty alleviation, and climate resilience in farming communities worldwide and contribute to the achievements of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
130Technology transfer and adoption for smallholder climate change adaptation: opportunities and challengesOpenAlex
Laura Kuhl
Technologies help build farmer resilience to climate change, but the relationships among technology transfer, adoption, vulnerability, and resilience are not well-understood. This paper empirically examines the technology transfer process for smallholder farmers in Honduras from an adaptation perspective. It addresses two questions: (1) How does technology transfer contribute to pathways to resilience for smallholder farmers? (2) What challenges do these efforts face in meeting diverse farmer needs and overcoming barriers to technology adoption by the most vulnerable to climate change? These questions are analysed in the context of United States government’s Feed the Future initiative. Interviews with smallholder farmers were conducted regarding experiences with technology transfer, adoption choices, and perceptions of climate change. The study found that while adoption rates were high overall, the pace of adoption was still slow, demonstrating a tension between the urgency of climate change and the pace of smallholder adoption. The study found that many technologies increase resilience but may not always be adaptive in the long-term, and that significant resources are needed to successfully transfer technologies to smallholder farmers. This study provides evidence of ways agricultural technology projects contribute to pathways to resilience and demonstrates barriers to their success.
131Transforming Agricultural Extension Service Delivery through Innovative Bottom–Up Climate-Resilient Agribusiness Farmer Field SchoolsOpenAlex
Joab Osumba, John Recha, George Oroma
Conventional approaches to agricultural extension based on top–down technology transfer and information dissemination models are inadequate to help smallholder farmers tackle increasingly complex agroclimatic adversities. Innovative service delivery alternatives, such as field schools, exist but are mostly implemented in isolationistic silos with little effort to integrate them for cost reduction and greater technical effectiveness. This article presents a proof-of-concept effort to develop an innovative, climate-resilient field school methodology, integrating the attributes of Farmers’ Field School, Climate Field School, Climate-Smart Agriculture and indigenous technical knowledge of weather indicators in one package to address the gaps, while sensitizing actors on implications for policy advocacy. Some 661 local facilitators, 32% of them women and 54% youth, were trained on the innovation across East Africa. The initiative has reached 36 agribusiness champions working with 237,250 smallholder farmers in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Initial results show that the innovation is strengthening adaptation behaviour of agribusiness champions, farmers and supply chain actors, and reducing training costs. Preliminary findings indicate that the process is rapidly shaping group adaptive thinking. The integrated approach offers lessons to transform extension and to improve food security and resilience. The approach bundles the costs of previously separate processes into the cost of one joint, simultaneous process, while also strengthening technical service delivery through bundled messaging. Experience from this initiative can be leveraged to develop scalable participatory extension and training models, especially scaling out through farmer-to-farmer replication and scaling up through farmer group networks.
132Designing Global Governance for Agricultural Development and Food and Nutrition SecurityOpenAlex
Joachim von Braun, Regina Birner
Abstract We point to deficits in current global institutional arrangements in support of agricultural development and food and nutrition security. A framework for global institutional arrangements proposed here is the set of essential international public goods for a well‐functioning world food system. These public goods include international natural resource management; trade and transboundary competition policy; research and innovation; handling large scale food emergencies; and transboundary food safety. Based on the framework, and institutional economics considerations, causes of current malfunctioning of global food governance are analyzed. It is proposed to redesign global food governance by establishing an international platform with policy clusters mapped along the set of global public goods. To support the platform with needed research‐based evidence an International Panel on Food, Nutrition and Agriculture ( IPFNA ) is suggested, partly following the design of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ). Existing organizations and mechanisms would form building blocks of the strengthened and redesigned governance system. A gradual approach toward redesign is proposed. Some redesign in the suggested direction was triggered by the food crisis of 2008, as demonstrated by the reform of the Committee on Food Security ( CFS ) with its high level panel of experts, but more is needed.
133Tackling Regional Climate Change Impacts and Food Security Issues: A Critical Analysis across ASEAN, PIF, and SAARCOpenAlex
Md Saidul Islam, Edson Kieu
Climate change and food security issues are multi-faceted and transcend across national boundaries. Therefore, this paper begins with the premise that regional organizations are optimally positioned to address climate change and food security issues while actively engaging global partners to slow down or reverse current trajectories. However, the potential of regional organizations to play a central role in mitigating these vital concerns has not been realized. In this paper, we focus on three regional organizations—the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and set out to investigate the multifaceted obstacles that impede regional organizations’ ability to effectively cope with these problems. We qualitatively review the efficacy of policies and examine the connections between politico-economic processes that affect the development, cooperation, and execution of regional policies. In doing so, we review regional policies using five key criteria: (i) planning, (ii) implementation, (iii) cooperation, (iv) legal obligation and (v) international contribution. Our findings suggest that regional organizations face fundamental problems in the implementation of extensive policies due to the lack of cooperation and legal obligation between member nation-states that stems from fundamental prioritization of national development agendas over regional cooperation.
134Sustainable Water Management in Agriculture under Climate ChangeOpenAlex
Konstantinos Chartzoulakis, Maria Bertaki
Water is considered as the most critical resource for sustainable agricultural development worldwide. Irrigated areas will increase in forthcoming years, while fresh water supplies will be diverted from agriculture to meet the increasing demand of domestic use and industry. Furthermore, the efficiency of irrigation is very low, since less than 65% of the applied water is actually used by the crops. The sustainable use of irrigation water is a priority for agriculture in arid areas. So, under scarcity conditions and climate change considerable effort has been devoted over time to introduce policies aiming to increase water efficiency based on the assertion that more can be achieved with less water through better management. Better management usually refers to improvement of water allocation and/or irrigation water efficiency. The former is closely related to adequate pricing, while the latter depends on the type of irrigation technology, environmental conditions and the scheduling of water application. Agricultural practices, such as soil management, irrigation and fertilizer application and disease and pest control are related with the sustainable water management in agriculture and protection of the environment. Socio-economic pressures and climate change impose restrictions to water allocated to agriculture. The adoption of sustainable water management in Mediterranean is not only a technological problem but involves many other considerations relative to social behavior of rural communities, the economic constrains, or the legal and institutional framework that may favor the adoption of some measures and not others. Sustainable water management in agriculture, which has a multi-functional role in Southern Europe, can be achieved by adopting improvements in irrigation application, soil and plant practices, water pricing, reuse of treated wastewater, farmers’ participation in water management and capacity building.
135Climate Change Policies in 16 West African Countries: A Systematic Review of Adaptation with a Focus on Agriculture, Food Security, and NutritionOpenAlex
Raïssa Sorgho, Carlos Alberto Montenegro-Quiñonez, Valérie R. Louis, et al.
Climate change strongly impacts the agricultural sector in West Africa, threatening food security and nutrition, particularly for populations with the least adaptive capacity. Little is known about national climate change policies in the region. This systematic review identifies and analyses climate change policy documents in all 16 West African countries: (1) What are the existing climate change adaptation policies publicly available? (2) Which topics are addressed? (3) How are agriculture and food security framed and addressed? Following PRISMA guidelines, PubMed and Google scholar as key databases were searched with an extensive grey literature search. Keywords for searches were combinations of "Africa", "Climate Change", and "National Policy/Plan/Strategy/Guideline". Fifteen countries have at least one national policy document on climate change in the frame of our study. Nineteen policy documents covered seven key sectors (energy, agriculture, water resources, health, forestry, infrastructure, and education), and eight thematic areas (community resilience, disaster risk management, institutional development, industry development, research and development, policy making, economic investment, and partnerships/collaboration). At the intersection of these sectors/areas, effects of changing climate on countries/populations were evaluated and described. Climate change adaptation strategies emerged including development of local risk/disaster plans, micro-financing and insurance schemes (public or private), green energy, and development of community groups/farmers organizations. No clear trend emerged when analysing the adaptation options, however, climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector was almost always included. Analysing agriculture, nutrition, and food security, seven agricultural challenges were identified: The small scale of West African farming, information gaps, missing infrastructure, poor financing, weak farmer/community organizations, a shifting agricultural calendar, and deteriorating environmental ecology. They reflect barriers to adaptation especially for small-scale subsistence farmers with increased climate change vulnerabilities. The study has shown that most West African countries have climate change policies. Nevertheless, key questions remain unanswered, and demand for further research, e.g., on evaluating the implementation in the respective countries, persists.
136Importance of Genetic Diversity Assessment in Crop Plants and Its Recent Advances: An Overview of Its Analytical PerspectivesOpenAlex
Mahalingam Govindaraj, Mani Vetriventhan, Mahalingam Srinivasan
The importance of plant genetic diversity (PGD) is now being recognized as a specific area since exploding population with urbanization and decreasing cultivable lands are the critical factors contributing to food insecurity in developing world. Agricultural scientists realized that PGD can be captured and stored in the form of plant genetic resources (PGR) such as gene bank, DNA library, and so forth, in the biorepository which preserve genetic material for long period. However, conserved PGR must be utilized for crop improvement in order to meet future global challenges in relation to food and nutritional security. This paper comprehensively reviews four important areas; (i) the significance of plant genetic diversity (PGD) and PGR especially on agriculturally important crops (mostly field crops); (ii) risk associated with narrowing the genetic base of current commercial cultivars and climate change; (iii) analysis of existing PGD analytical methods in pregenomic and genomic era; and (iv) modern tools available for PGD analysis in postgenomic era. This discussion benefits the plant scientist community in order to use the new methods and technology for better and rapid assessment, for utilization of germplasm from gene banks to their applied breeding programs. With the advent of new biotechnological techniques, this process of genetic manipulation is now being accelerated and carried out with more precision (neglecting environmental effects) and fast-track manner than the classical breeding techniques. It is also to note that gene banks look into several issues in order to improve levels of germplasm distribution and its utilization, duplication of plant identity, and access to database, for prebreeding activities. Since plant breeding research and cultivar development are integral components of improving food production, therefore, availability of and access to diverse genetic sources will ensure that the global food production network becomes more sustainable. The pros and cons of the basic and advanced statistical tools available for measuring genetic diversity are briefly discussed and their source links (mostly) were provided to get easy access; thus, it improves the understanding of tools and its practical applicability to the researchers.
137Genetic enhancement of climate-resilient traits in small millets: A reviewOpenAlex
Pooja Choudhary, Pooja Shukla, Mehanathan Muthamilarasan
Agriculture is facing the challenge of feeding the ever-growing population that is projected to reach ten billion by 2050. While improving crop yield and productivity can address this challenge, the increasing effects of global warming and climate change seriously threaten agricultural productivity. Thus, genomics and genome modification technologies are crucial to improving climate-resilient traits to enable sustained yield and productivity; however, significant research focuses on staple crops such as rice, wheat, and maize. Crops that are naturally climate-resilient and nutritionally superior to staple cereals, such as small millets, remain neglected and underutilized by mainstream research. The ability of small millets to grow in marginal regions having limited irrigation and poor soil fertility makes these crops a better choice for cultivation in arid and semi-arid areas. Hence, mainstreaming small millets for cultivation and using omics technologies to dissect the climate-resilient traits to identify the molecular determinants underlying these traits are imperative for addressing food and nutritional security. In this context, the review discusses the genomics and genome modification approaches for dissecting key traits in small millets and their application for improving these traits in cultivated germplasm. The review also discusses biofortification for nutritional security and machine-learning approaches for trait improvement in small millets. Altogether, the review provides a roadmap for the effective use of next-generation approaches for trait improvement in small millets. This will lead to the development of improved varieties for addressing multiple insecurities prevailing in the present climate change scenario.
138Enset in Ethiopia: a poorly characterized but resilient starch stapleOpenAlex
James S. Borrell, Manosh Kumar Biswas, Mark Goodwin, et al.
BACKGROUND: Enset (Ensete ventricosum, Musaceae) is an African crop that currently provides the staple food for approx. 20 million Ethiopians. Whilst wild enset grows over much of East and Southern Africa and the genus extends across Asia to China, it has only ever been domesticated in the Ethiopian Highlands. Here, smallholder farmers cultivate hundreds of landraces across diverse climatic and agroecological systems. SCOPE: Enset has several important food security traits. It grows over a relatively wide range of conditions, is somewhat drought-tolerant, and can be harvested at any time of the year, over several years. It provides an important dietary starch source, as well as fibres, medicines, animal fodder, roofing and packaging. It stabilizes soils and microclimates and has significant cultural importance. In contrast to the other cultivated species in the family Musaceae (banana), enset has received relatively little research attention. Here, we review and critically evaluate existing research, outline available genomic and germplasm resources, aspects of pathology, and explore avenues for crop development. CONCLUSION: Enset is an underexploited starch crop with significant potential in Ethiopia and beyond. Research is lacking in several key areas: empirical studies on the efficacy of current agronomic practices, the genetic diversity of landraces, approaches to systematic breeding, characterization of existing and emerging diseases, adaptability to new ranges and land-use change, the projected impact of climate change, conservation of crop wild relatives, by-products or co-products or non-starch uses, and the enset microbiome. We also highlight the limited availability of enset germplasm in living collections and seedbanks, and the lack of knowledge of reproductive and germination biology needed to underpin future breeding. By reviewing the current state of the art in enset research and identifying gaps and opportunities, we hope to catalyse the development and sustainable exploitation of this neglected starch crop.
139Adoption and Promotion of Resilient Crops for Climate Risk Mitigation and Import Substitution: A Case Analysis of Cassava for South African AgricultureOpenAlex
Assefa B. Amelework, Michael W. Bairu, Obakeng Maema, et al.
Cassava is an important starchy root crop grown globally in tropical and subtropical regions. The ability of cassava to withstand difficult growing conditions and long-term storability underground makes it a resilient crop, contributing to food security. Historically, small-scale farmers have grown cassava as a minor crop in the far north-eastern part of the country. However, there is an initiative to scale up cassava production, with two discrete areas of interest: large-scale production for industrial starch, and expanding its footprint as a food security crop for small-scale farmers, especially in the context of climate change. In this scoping study, production, processing and marketing data for cassava were accessed from the FAO and US Commercial trade databases. Other domestic market and demand analysis case studies were also explored. There is no cassava data available for South Africa. The study indicated that South Africa imports more than 66,000 tons of starch annually, of which 33% is cassava starch, showing the availability of a local market. The potential of cassava for the South African economy is discussed. Significant industrial opportunities exist for the production and use of cassava in South Africa. However, the realization of these opportunities will depend on the reliable supply of good quality cassava roots. However, the lack of a well-established cassava research program, and a lack of an existing value chain for the industrial scale cassava production and processing are barriers to the development of cassava industry in South Africa. As the initial step to the development of a successful cassava industry, high potential germplasm is imported, characterized and bred for local conditions to ensure the sustainable primary production of cassava. Subsequently, industrial value chains will need to be developed as the optimization of the breeding and agronomy of the crop are completed, and yield potentials are quantified in the different regions of the country.
140Exploration of Bambara Groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an Underutilized Crop, to Aid Global Food Security: Varietal Improvement, Genetic Diversity and ProcessingOpenAlex
Isma’ila Muhammad, Mohd Y. Rafii, Shairul Izan Ramlee, et al.
Currently, the global agricultural system is focused on a limited number of crop species, thereby presenting a threat to food security and supply, especially with predicted global climate change conditions. The importance of ‘underutilized’ crop species in meeting the world’s demand for food has been duly recognized by research communities, governments and policy makers worldwide. The development of underutilized crops, with their vast genetic resources and beneficial traits, may be a useful step towards solving food security challenges by offering a multifaceted agricultural system that includes additional important food resources. Bambara groundnut is among the beneficial underutilized crop species that may have a positive impact on global food security through organized and well-coordinated multidimensional breeding programs. The excessive degrees of allelic difference in Bambara groundnut germplasm could be exploited in breeding activities to develop new varieties. It is important to match recognized breeding objectives with documented diversity in order to significantly improve breeding. This review assesses the genetic diversity of Bambara groundnut, as well as important factors involved in realizing and harnessing the potential of this crop.
142Understanding gender dimensions of agriculture and climate change in smallholder farming communitiesOpenAlex
Christine Jost, Florence Birungi Kyazze, Jesse B. Naab, et al.
In Uganda, Ghana and Bangladesh, participatory tools were used for a socio-economic and gender analysis of three topics: climate-smart agriculture (CSA), climate analogue approaches, and climate and weather forecasting. Policy and programme-relevant results were obtained. Smallholders are changing agricultural practices due to observations of climatic and environmental change. Women appear to be less adaptive because of financial or resource constraints, because of male domination in receiving information and extension services and because available adaptation strategies tend to create higher labour loads for women. The climate analogue approach (identifying places resembling your future climate so as to identify potential adaptations) is a promising tool for increasing farmer-to-farmer learning, where a high degree of climatic variability means that analogue villages that have successfully adopted new CSA practices exist nearby. Institutional issues related to forecast production limit their credibility and salience, particularly in terms of women's ability to access and understand them. The participatory tools used in this study provided some insights into women's adaptive capacity in the villages studied, but not to the depth necessary to address women's specific vulnerabilities in CSA programmes. Further research is necessary to move the discourse related to gender and climate change beyond the conceptualization of women as a homogenously vulnerable group in CSA programmes.
143Silicon Savannah and smallholder farming: How can digitalization contribute to sustainable agricultural transformation in Africa?OpenAlex
Evelyne Njuguna, Thomas Daum, Regina Birner, et al.
The development of smallholder agriculture in Africa faces numerous challenges. While digitalization is seen as a transformative opportunity for the continent's agricultural sector, there is limited empirical evidence on the effectiveness and impact of digital tools for smallholder farmers. This study examines the landscape of digital agriculture in Kenya, often called Africa's “Silicon Savannah,” to assess the current state and potential of these tools. The study seeks to answer two key questions: 1. To what extent can digital solutions for agriculture in Africa leverage the latest technological developments? 2. To what extent can these digital solutions effectively address the challenges faced by smallholder farmers? We developed a novel classification framework to categorize digital agricultural tools based on their physical attributes and analytical capabilities. A comprehensive stocktaking approach mapped digital tools across Kenya's agricultural value chains. Additionally, a literature review explored potential impact pathways through which digital tools can transform African agriculture, drawing on existing studies related to Kenya. The findings reveal that the number of digital tools available to smallholder farmers has tripled over the past decade, with a peak in new digital start-ups in 2016, followed by a slowdown. There is a shift from “generic” tools—focused on low-cost information exchange—toward “farm-specific” tools, offering tailored advisory services based on manual data input or sensor-generated data. Generic tools remain limited to information sharing, while farm-specific tools are increasingly using diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive capabilities, supported by satellite imagery and sensors. The analysis indicates digital tools can enhance farmers' knowledge and access to inputs, services, and markets, boosting productivity and income. However, there is limited evidence on their effects on food security, environmental sustainability, and climate resilience. Due to the heterogeneity of tools and evaluation methods, there is a lack of quantifiable, attributable evidence on their full impact. This review highlights the crucial role of digital tools in overcoming agricultural challenges in Africa. By assessing these tools' capabilities, the study identifies significant advancements in sensor technologies and data analytics for smallholder farming. The findings underscore areas of high impact and untapped potential, calling for further research on their long-term effects on agricultural outcomes. • High hopes and intriguing initiatives are pinned on digitalization of agriculture. • There is little empirical evidence on actual state and extent of use by smallholder farmers. • We present a novel classification framework and explore digital tools impacts. • Established relevance for both “generic” and farm-specific” digital tools. • There is limited impact on food & nutrition security, environment and climate resilience.
144Effect of Climate Smart Agriculture Innovations on Climate Resilience among Smallholder Farmers: Empirical Evidence from the Choke Mountain Watershed of the Blue Nile Highlands of EthiopiaOpenAlex
Abyiot Teklu, Belay Simane, Mintewab Bezabih
Smallholder farmers’ capacities need to be strengthened to enable them to better withstand the upcoming impacts of climate change; these capacities not only include the responsive capacity, but also consider innovation, learning, and anticipation to be prepared for the projected impacts of a changing climate on the agriculture system. The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of climate smart agriculture (CSA) innovations on building climate resilience capacity in smallholder agriculture systems. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted among a multi-stage sample of 424 smallholder farmers selected from five agroecosystems of the Upper Blue Nile Highlands in Ethiopia. The study used an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model to examine the impact of CSA innovations on building climate resilience capacity among smallholder farmers. The true average adoption effects of climate resilience capacity under actual and counterfactual conditions showed that different CSA innovations have different effects on the climate resilience capacity of households. Except for SWC adopters, all CSA innovations significantly increased the climate resilience capacity of households. However, improved variety, crop residue management, and SWC have more profound effects on the non-adopters than adopters, =if non-adopters had adopted these CSA innovations. Strong absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities through strong disaster and early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, a strong public agricultural extension system, a strong informal safety net, and social networks build a climate-resilient agriculture system among smallholder farmers. Thus, scaling up of CSA innovations may expand the benefit of CSA innovation on building the climate resilience capacities of households. Thus, strong risk management, disaster mitigation and early warning systems, adaptive strategies, information and training, informal safety nets, social networks, and infrastructure use may build the climate resilience capacity of smallholder farmers by facilitating the adoption of CSA innovation. Therefore, policies that strengthen good governance, social cohesion, disaster communication and early warning systems, input supply of drought-resistant varieties, climate smart extension service, and climate-resilient infrastructure are necessary.
145Smallholder Farmers’ Willingness to Pay for Agricultural Production Cost Insurance in Rural West Java, Indonesia: A Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) ApproachOpenAlex
Dadang Jainal Mutaqin, Koichi Usami
To reduce the negative impacts of risks in farming due to climate change, the government implemented agricultural production cost insurance in 2015. Although a huge amount of subsidy has been allocated by the government (80 percent of the premium), farmers’ participation rate is still low (23 percent of the target in 2016). In order to solve the issue, it is indispensable to identify farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for and determinants of their participation in agricultural production cost insurance. Based on a field survey of 240 smallholder farmers in the Garut District, West Java Province in August–October 2017 and February 2018, the contingent valuation method (CVM) estimated that farmers’ mean willingness to pay (WTP) was Rp 30,358/ha/cropping season ($2.25/ha/cropping season), which was 16 percent lower than the current premium (Rp 36,000/ha/cropping season = $2.67/ha/cropping season). Farmers who participated in agricultural production cost insurance shared some characteristics: operating larger farmland, more contact with agricultural extension service, lower expected production for the next cropping season, and a downstream area location.
146Uptake of insurance-embedded credit in presence of credit rationing: evidence from a randomized controlled trial in KenyaOpenAlex
Michael Ndegwa, Apurba Shee, Calum G. Turvey, et al.
Purpose Drought-related climate risk and access to credit are among the major risks to agricultural productivity for smallholder farmers in Kenya. Farmers are usually credit-constrained due to either involuntary quantity rationing or voluntary risk rationing. By exploiting randomized distribution of weather risk-contingent credit (RCC) and traditional credit, the authors estimate the causal effect of bundling weather index insurance to credit on uptake of agricultural credits among rural smallholders in Eastern Kenya. Further, the authors assess farmers' credit rationing, its determinants and effects on credit uptake. Design/methodology/approach The study design was a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted in Machakos County, Kenya. 1,170 sample households were randomly assigned to one of three research groups, namely control, RCC and traditional credit. This paper is based on baseline household survey data and the first phase of loan implementation data. Findings The authors find that 48% of the households were price-rationed, 41% were risk-rationed and 11% were quantity-rationed. The average credit uptake rate was 33% with the uptake of bundled credit being significantly higher than that of traditional credit. Risk rationing seems to influence the credit uptake negatively, whereas premium subsidies do not have any significant association with credit uptake. Among the socio-economic variables, training attendance, crop production being the main household head occupation, expenditure on food, maize labour requirement, hired labour, livestock revenue and access to credit are found to influence the credit uptake positively, whereas the expenditure on non-food items is negatively related with credit uptake. Research limitations/implications The study findings provide important insights on the factors of credit demand. Empirical results suggest that risk rationing is pervasive and discourages farmers to take up credit. The study results also imply that credit demand is inelastic although relatively small sample size for RCC premium subsidy groups may be a limiting factor to the authors’ estimation. Originality/value By implementing a multi-arm RCT, the authors estimate the factors affecting the uptake of insurance bundled agricultural credits along with eliciting credit rationing among rural smallholders in Eastern Kenya. This paper provides key empirical findings on the uptake of RCC and the effect of credit rationing on uptake of agricultural credits, a field which has been majorly theoretical.
147Making Climate Finance Work in AgricultureOpenAlex
World Bank
This discussion paper was produced as a background documentfor the 2016 FAO State of Food and Agriculture (SOFA) report. It was produced through desk research and analysis of existing agricultural and climate finance literature. Moreover, qualitative interviews with key experts representing different stakeholder groups in the agriculture, climate, and financial sectors were conducted to inform the potential opportunities and innovations that should be further explored to make climate finance work for agriculture. Finally, a collection of supporting case studies were provided by different stakeholders to showcase some of the most successful and innovative examples already being implemented in the climate finance community.It is important to note that this is a discussion paper that aims to explore the intersection between climate and agriculture finance by generating dialogue. Hence, the paper explores a relatively new field and proposes innovative interventions that either are being tested or could be tested to increase the leverage of private capital and strengthen the links between financial institutions on the one hand and smallholder farmers and SMEs on the other. The objective of the paper is to generate discussion around this topic and, therefore, no blanket recommendations or descriptive interventions are proposed. A growing population and changing diets are driving up the demand for food. Production is struggling to keep up as crop yields level off in many parts of the world, ocean health declines, and natural resources— including soils, water and biodiversity—are stretched dangerously thin. Climate change is critically interrelated with agriculture. On the one hand, agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. This paper proposes three different avenues to use climate finance to achieve this goal: a) Designing and adapting innovative mechanisms to leverage additional sources of capital, from both public and private sources, that can be directed towards climate smartinvestments in the agriculture sector. b) Identifying entry points for directing climate finance into agriculture and for linking FIs to smallholders and agricultural SMEs, including through capacity building and technical assistance. c) Providing technical assistance to increase investments in agriculture.Finally, this paper presents several suggestions to contribute to the achievement of the ideas presented in this paper, including the need for increased knowledge on innovative financial instruments and mechanisms, bridging information gaps, identifying opportunities, promoting dialogue and cooperation, and designing an action plan to move this agenda forward.
148Making Climate Finance Work in AgricultureOpenAlex
World Bank Group
This discussion paper was produced as a \n background documentfor the 2016 FAO State of Food and \n Agriculture (SOFA) report. It was produced through desk \n research and analysis of existing agricultural and climate \n finance literature. Moreover, qualitative interviews with \n key experts representing different stakeholder groups in the \n agriculture, climate, and financial sectors were conducted \n to inform the potential opportunities and innovations that \n should be further explored to make climate finance work for \n agriculture. Finally, a collection of supporting case \n studies were provided by different stakeholders to showcase \n some of the most successful and innovative examples already \n being implemented in the climate finance community.It is \n important to note that this is a discussion paper that aims \n to explore the intersection between climate and agriculture \n finance by generating dialogue. Hence, the paper explores a \n relatively new field and proposes innovative interventions \n that either are being tested or could be tested to increase \n the leverage of private capital and strengthen the links \n between financial institutions on the one hand and \n smallholder farmers and SMEs on the other. The objective of \n the paper is to generate discussion around this topic and, \n therefore, no blanket recommendations or descriptive \n interventions are proposed. A growing population and \n changing diets are driving up the demand for food. \n Production is struggling to keep up as crop yields level off \n in many parts of the world, ocean health declines, and \n natural resources— including soils, water and \n biodiversity—are stretched dangerously thin. Climate change \n is critically interrelated with agriculture. On the one \n hand, agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. \n This paper proposes three different avenues to use climate \n finance to achieve this goal: a) Designing and adapting \n innovative mechanisms to leverage additional sources of \n capital, from both public and private sources, that can be \n directed towards climate smartinvestments in the agriculture \n sector. b) Identifying entry points for directing climate \n finance into agriculture and for linking FIs to smallholders \n and agricultural SMEs, including through capacity building \n and technical assistance. c) Providing technical assistance \n to increase investments in agriculture.Finally, this paper \n presents several suggestions to contribute to the \n achievement of the ideas presented in this paper, including \n the need for increased knowledge on innovative financial \n instruments and mechanisms, bridging information gaps, \n identifying opportunities, promoting dialogue and \n cooperation, and designing an action plan to move this \n agenda forward.
150Smallholder farmers’ adaptation to climate change and determinants of their adaptation decisions in the Central Rift Valley of EthiopiaOpenAlex
Abrham Belay, John Recha, Teshale Woldeamanuel, et al.
The agricultural sector remains the main source of livelihoods for rural communities in Ethiopia, but faces the challenge of changing climate. This study investigated how smallholder farmers perceive climate change, what adaptation strategies they practice, and factors that influence their adaptation decisions. Both primary and secondary data were used for the study, and a multinomial logit model was employed to identify the factors that shape smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies. The results show that 90% of farmers have already perceived climate variability, and 85% made attempts to adapt using practices like crop diversification, planting date adjustment, soil and water conservation and management, increasing the intensity of input use, integrating crop with livestock, and tree planting. The econometric model indicated that education, family size, gender, age, livestock ownership, farming experience, frequency of contact with extension agents, farm size, access to market, access to climate information and income were the key factors determining farmers’ choice of adaptation practice. In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, climate change is a pressing problem, which is beyond the capacity of smallholders to respond to autonomously. Farmers’ capacity to choose effective adaptation options is influenced by household demography, as well as positively by farm size, income, access to markets, access to climate information and extension, and livestock production. This implies the need to support the indigenous adaptation strategies of the smallholder farmers with a wide range of institutional, policy, and technology support; some of it targeted on smaller, poorer or female-headed households. Moreover, creating opportunities for non-farm income sources is important as this helps farmers to engage in those activities that are less sensitive to climate change. Furthermore, providing climate change information, extension services, and creating access to markets are crucial.
151Early Warnings and Perceived Climate Change Preparedness among Smallholder Farmers in the Upper West Region of GhanaOpenAlex
Cornelius K. A. Pienaah, Evans Batung, Suleman Ansumah Saaka, et al.
The impacts of climate change are already pushing beyond the threshold for sustainable agriculture and rural livelihoods. In Sub-Saharan Africa, smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to limited resources and adaptive capacity. Early warnings are critical in mitigating and reducing climate-related dangers and building resiliency. That notwithstanding, there needs to be higher coverage of early warnings in developing countries, and there is even less knowledge of their contribution to rural development. Using a cross-sectional survey involving smallholder farmer households (n = 517), this study investigates the relationship between early warnings and perceived climate preparedness in Ghana’s semi-arid Upper West Region. From ordered logistic regression presented as an odds ratio (OR), factors that influenced climate preparedness in the past 12 months before the study include exposure to early warnings (OR = 2.238; p < 0.001) and experiences of prior climate events such as drought (OR = 9.252; p < 0.001), floods (OR = 6.608; p < 0.001), and erratic rain (OR = 4.411; p < 0.001). The results emphasize the importance of early warning systems and various socioeconomic factors in improving the climate resilience of smallholder farmers in Ghana. In conclusion, the study puts forth policy suggestions worth considering.
152Education, financial aid, and awareness can reduce smallholder farmers' vulnerability to drought under climate changeOpenAlex
Marthe Wens, Anne F. Van Loon, Ted Veldkamp, et al.
Abstract. Analyses of future agricultural drought impacts require a multidisciplinary approach in which both human and environmental dynamics are studied. In this study, we used the socio-hydrologic, agent-based drought risk adaptation model ADOPT. This model simulates the decisions of smallholder farmers regarding on-farm drought adaptation measures and the resulting dynamics in household vulnerability and drought impact over time. We applied ADOPT to assess the effect of four top-down disaster risk reduction interventions on smallholder farmers' drought risk in the Kenyan drylands: the robustness of additional extension services, lowered credit rates, ex ante rather than ex post cash transfers, and improved early warnings were evaluated under different climate change scenarios. Model results suggest that extension services increase the adoption of newer low-cost drought adaptation measures while credit schemes are useful for measures with a high investment cost, and ex ante cash transfers allow the least wealthy households to adopt low-cost, well-known measures. Early warning systems are shown to be more effective in climate scenarios with less frequent droughts. Combining all four interventions displays a mutually reinforcing effect with a sharp increase in the adoption of on-farm drought adaptation measures, resulting in reduced food insecurity, decreased poverty levels, and drastically lower need for emergency aid, even under hotter and drier climate conditions. These nonlinear synergies indicate that a holistic perspective is needed to support smallholder resilience in the Kenyan drylands.
153The Future of Smallholder Farming in India: Some Sustainability ConsiderationsOpenAlex
I. S. Bisht, Jai Chand Rana, S. P. Ahlawat
The biodiverse, predominantly crop-livestock mixed-farming in India is key to ensuring resilience to climate change and sustainability of smallholder farming agroecologies. Farmers traditionally grow diverse crops as polyculture, and agriculture is mainly organic/biodynamic with spirituality in food systems deeply ingrained. Job-driven out-migration of rural youths, the family labor force, and globalization of contemporary food choices under corporate industrial agriculture both adversely affect sustainability of traditional farming landscapes and compromise the nutrition and health of rural farming communities. Besides documenting information on general agri-food system policy inputs, our paper presents the results of an exploratory study of four crucial community-level initiatives conducted in four distinct agroecological landscapes of India, aimed at bringing sustainability to traditional farming and food systems. The driving force for fundamental change in agri-food system, and in society, is the question of sustainability. The organic and local food movements are but specific phases of the larger, more fundamental sustainable agri-food movement. While it is very critical to increase farmer livelihood, it is even more important to increase overall rural economy. It was found that four important interventions viz. linking organic agriculture to community-supported agriculture (CSA) initiatives; linking small-holder farming to school meal (MDM) programmes; enhanced market access and value chain development for local agricultural produce; and creation of employment opportunities at community level for rural youths and reducing over-dependence of rural population on agriculture as source of income can make traditional farming more profitable and sustainable. The transition to more sustainable methods of farming by selling the farm produce “locally” helps both consumers and farmers alike and is considered a future strength of smallholder Indian agriculture.
154The Adoption and Scaling of Climate-Smart Agriculture Innovation by Smallholder Farmers in South Africa: A Review of Institutional Mechanisms, Policy Frameworks and Market DynamicsOpenAlex
Mary Funke Olabanji, Munyaradzi Chitakira
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) has emerged as a critical strategy to address the intertwined challenges of climate change, food insecurity, and environmental degradation, particularly among smallholder farmers in Southern Africa. This study reviews the existing literature on the adoption and scaling of CSA innovations among smallholder farmers in South Africa, focusing specifically on the roles played by institutional mechanisms, policy frameworks, and market dynamics. The findings reveal that while CSA interventions—such as conservation agriculture, drought-tolerant crop varieties, and precision irrigation—have demonstrated positive outcomes in enhancing productivity, food and nutritional security, and climate resilience, adoption remains uneven and limited. Key barriers include insecure land tenure, insufficient extension and climate information services, limited access to credit and inputs, and fragmented institutional support. The analysis highlights the importance of secure land rights, functional farmer cooperatives, effective NGO involvement, and inclusive governance structures in facilitating CSA adoption. Further, the review critiques the implementation gaps in South Africa’s climate and agricultural policy landscape, despite the existence of comprehensive strategies like the National Climate Change Response Policy and the Agricultural Policy Action Plan. This study concludes that scaling CSA among smallholder farmers requires a holistic, multi-level approach that strengthens institutional coordination, ensures policy coherence, improves market access, and empowers local actors. Targeted financial incentives, capacity-building programs, and value chain integration are essential to transform CSA from a conceptual framework into a practical, scalable solution for sustainable agricultural development in South Africa.