Müller Hans-Helge, Schäfer Helmut
Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, Philipps-University of Marburg, Bunsenstrasse 3, D-35037 Marburg, Germany.
Stat Med. 2004 Aug 30;23(16):2497-508. doi: 10.1002/sim.1852.
A general method is presented that allows the researcher to change statistical design elements such as the residual sample size during the course of an experiment, to include an interim analysis for early stopping when no formal rule for early stopping was foreseen, to increase or reduce the number of planned interim analyses, to change time points and the type I error spending function for the further design of interim analyses, or to change the test statistic, the outcome measure, etc. At the time of a pre-planned interim analysis for early stopping or at any time of an interim look without spending part of the type I error level the method offers the option to completely redesign the remaining part of the trial, without affecting the type I error level. The method is described in the usual Brownian motion model and extended to the general context of statistical decision functions. It is based on the conditional rejection probability of a decision variable.
本文提出了一种通用方法,该方法允许研究人员在实验过程中改变统计设计要素,如剩余样本量;在未预见到早期终止的正式规则时,纳入用于早期终止的中期分析;增加或减少计划的中期分析次数;改变时间点以及用于进一步设计中期分析的I型错误消耗函数;或者改变检验统计量、结局指标等。在进行用于早期终止的预先计划的中期分析时,或在不消耗部分I型错误水平的中期查看的任何时间,该方法提供了完全重新设计试验其余部分的选项,而不会影响I型错误水平。该方法在常见的布朗运动模型中进行了描述,并扩展到统计决策函数的一般背景下。它基于决策变量的条件拒绝概率。