撒哈拉以南非洲家犬狂犬病的同步流行周期及防控措施的影响。

Synchronous cycles of domestic dog rabies in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of control efforts.

作者信息

Hampson Katie, Dushoff Jonathan, Bingham John, Brückner Gideon, Ali Y H, Dobson Andy

机构信息

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 May 1;104(18):7717-22. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0609122104. Epub 2007 Apr 23.

Abstract

Rabies is a fatal neurological pathogen that is a persistent problem throughout the developing world where it is spread primarily by domestic dogs. Although the disease has been extensively studied in wildlife populations in Europe and North America, the dynamics of rabies in domestic dog populations has been almost entirely neglected. Here, we demonstrate that rabies epidemics in southern and eastern Africa cycle with a period of 3-6 years and show significant synchrony across the region. The observed period is shorter than predictions based on epidemiological parameters for rabies in domestic dogs. We find evidence that rabies prevention measures, including vaccination, are affected by disease prevalence and show that a simple model with intervention responses can capture observed disease periodicity and host dynamics. We suggest that movement of infectious or latent animals combined with coordinated control responses may be important in coupling populations and generating synchrony at the continental scale. These findings have important implications for rabies prediction and control: large-scale synchrony and the importance of intervention responses suggest that control of canine rabies in Africa will require sustained efforts coordinated across political boundaries.

摘要

狂犬病是一种致命的神经病原体,在整个发展中世界都是一个持续存在的问题,主要通过家犬传播。尽管该疾病在欧洲和北美的野生动物种群中已得到广泛研究,但家犬种群中狂犬病的动态几乎完全被忽视。在此,我们证明非洲南部和东部的狂犬病流行以3至6年的周期循环,且在整个地区呈现出显著的同步性。观察到的周期比基于家犬狂犬病流行病学参数的预测要短。我们发现有证据表明,包括疫苗接种在内的狂犬病预防措施会受到疾病流行程度的影响,并表明一个具有干预反应的简单模型能够捕捉到观察到的疾病周期性和宿主动态。我们认为,感染性或潜伏性动物的移动与协调的控制反应相结合,可能在连接种群并在大陆尺度上产生同步性方面发挥重要作用。这些发现对狂犬病的预测和控制具有重要意义:大规模同步性以及干预反应的重要性表明,非洲犬类狂犬病的控制将需要跨越政治边界进行持续协调的努力。

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