School of Civil Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK.
Int J Health Geogr. 2011 Jun 17;10:42. doi: 10.1186/1476-072X-10-42.
Heatwaves present a significant health risk and the hazard is likely to escalate with the increased future temperatures presently predicted by climate change models. The impact of heatwaves is often felt strongest in towns and cities where populations are concentrated and where the climate is often unintentionally modified to produce an urban heat island effect; where urban areas can be significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas. The purpose of this interdisciplinary study is to integrate remotely sensed urban heat island data alongside commercial social segmentation data via a spatial risk assessment methodology in order to highlight potential heat health risk areas and build the foundations for a climate change risk assessment. This paper uses the city of Birmingham, UK as a case study area.
When looking at vulnerable sections of the population, the analysis identifies a concentration of "very high" risk areas within the city centre, and a number of pockets of "high risk" areas scattered throughout the conurbation. Further analysis looks at household level data which yields a complicated picture with a considerable range of vulnerabilities at a neighbourhood scale.
The results illustrate that a concentration of "very high" risk people live within the urban heat island, and this should be taken into account by urban planners and city centre environmental managers when considering climate change adaptation strategies or heatwave alert schemes. The methodology has been designed to be transparent and to make use of powerful and readily available datasets so that it can be easily replicated in other urban areas.
热浪对健康构成重大威胁，随着气候变化模型预测的未来气温升高，这种危害可能会加剧。热浪的影响在城镇和城市中最为强烈，因为那里人口集中，而且气候常常被无意中改变，产生城市热岛效应；城市地区的温度通常比周围的农村地区高得多。这项跨学科研究的目的是通过空间风险评估方法，将遥感城市热岛数据与商业社会细分数据相结合，以突出潜在的热健康风险区域，并为气候变化风险评估奠定基础。本文以英国伯明翰市为案例研究区域。
在分析弱势群体时，该分析确定了市中心“极高”风险区域的集中，以及整个城市群中散布着多个“高”风险区域。进一步的分析着眼于家庭层面的数据，结果显示在邻里层面存在着相当大的脆弱性范围。
研究结果表明，大量“极高”风险人群居住在城市热岛中，城市规划者和市中心环境管理者在考虑气候变化适应策略或热浪警报方案时应考虑到这一点。该方法旨在具有透明度，并利用强大且易于获取的数据集，以便在其他城市地区轻松复制。
