Keenan Katherine, Grundy Emily, Kenward Michael G, Leon David A
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Department of Social Policy, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2014 Mar 26;9(3):e90356. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0090356. eCollection 2014.
Abortion rates in Russia, particularly repeat abortions, are among the highest in the world, and abortion complications make a substantial contribution to the country's high maternal mortality rate. Russia also has a very high rate of hazardous alcohol use. However, the association between alcohol use and abortion in Russia remains unexplored. We investigated the longitudinal predictors of first and repeat abortion, focussing on women's alcohol use as a risk factor. Follow-up data from 2,623 women of reproductive age (16-44 years) was extracted from 14 waves of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), a nationally representative panel study covering the period 1994-2009. We used discrete time hazard models to estimate the probability of having a first and repeat abortion by social, demographic and health characteristics at the preceding study wave. Having a first abortion was associated with demographic factors such as age and parity, whereas repeat abortions were associated with low education and alcohol use. After adjustment for demographic and socioeconomic factors, the risk of having a repeat abortion increased significantly as women's drinking frequency increased (P<0.001), and binge drinking women were significantly more likely to have a repeat abortion than non-drinkers (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.62-3.20). This association was not accounted for by contraceptive use or a higher risk of pregnancy. Therefore the determinants of first and repeat abortion in Russia between 1994-2009 were different. Women who had repeat abortions were distinguished by their heavier and more frequent alcohol use. The mechanism for the association is not well understood but could be explained by unmeasured personality factors, such as risk taking, or social non-conformity increasing the risk of unplanned pregnancy. Heavy or frequent drinkers constitute a particularly high risk group for repeat abortion, who could be targeted in prevention efforts.
俄罗斯的堕胎率,尤其是重复堕胎率,位居世界前列,堕胎并发症在该国较高的孕产妇死亡率中占了很大比例。俄罗斯有害酒精使用率也很高。然而,俄罗斯酒精使用与堕胎之间的关联尚待研究。我们调查了首次和重复堕胎的纵向预测因素,重点关注女性酒精使用这一风险因素。从俄罗斯纵向监测调查(RLMS)的14轮调查中提取了2623名育龄妇女(16 - 44岁)的随访数据,该调查是一项覆盖1994 - 2009年期间具有全国代表性的面板研究。我们使用离散时间风险模型,根据上一轮研究时的社会、人口和健康特征,估计首次和重复堕胎的概率。首次堕胎与年龄和生育胎次等人口因素有关,而重复堕胎与低教育水平和酒精使用有关。在对人口和社会经济因素进行调整后,随着女性饮酒频率增加,重复堕胎的风险显著上升(P<0.001),且酗酒女性比不饮酒女性更易发生重复堕胎(比值比2.28,95%置信区间1.62 - 3.20)。这种关联并非由避孕措施使用情况或更高的怀孕风险所致。因此,1994 - 2009年期间俄罗斯首次和重复堕胎的决定因素有所不同。有重复堕胎经历的女性以饮酒量更大、频率更高为特征。这种关联的机制尚不清楚,但可能是由未测量的人格因素,如冒险精神,或社会不遵从行为增加了意外怀孕风险来解释。重度或频繁饮酒者构成了重复堕胎的特别高风险群体,预防工作可针对这一群体展开。