Santos José, Meneses Bruno M
Winning Scientific Management, Alameda dos Oceanos, N.º 14, Parque das Nações, 1990-203, Lisboa, Portugal.
Centre for Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276, Lisboa, Portugal.
Acta Trop. 2017 Apr;168:80-90. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.01.015. Epub 2017 Jan 19.
The Zika virus, one of the new epidemic diseases, is reported to have affected millions of people in the past year. The suitable climate conditions of the areas where Zika virus has been reported, especially in areas with a high population density, are the main cause of the current outbreak and spread of the disease. Indeed, the suitable climatic conditions of certain territories constitute perfect breading nest for the propagation and outbreak of worldwide diseases. The main objective of this research is to analyze the global distribution and predicted areas of both mosquitoes Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus which are the main vectors of Zika virus. Physical (SRTM) and climatic variables (WorldClim) were used to obtain the susceptibility maps based on the optimum conditions for the development of these mosquitoes. The susceptibility model was developed using a Species Distribution Model - correlative model, namely the Maximum Entropy, that used as input the spatial references of both vectors (Dryad Digital Repository). The results show the most important classes of each independent variable used in assessing the presence of each species of mosquitoes and the areas susceptible to the presence of these vector species. It turns out that Ae. aegypti has greater global dispersion than the Ae. albopictus specie, although two common regions stand out as the most prone to the presence of both mosquito species (tropical and subtropical zones). The crossing of these areas of greater susceptibility with areas of greater population density (e.g. India, China, Se of USA and Brazil) shows some agreement, and these areas stand out due to the presence of several records of Zika virus (HealthMap Project). In this sense, through the intersection of susceptibility and human exposure the areas with increased risk of development and spread of Zika virus are pinpointed, suggesting that there may be a new outbreak of this virus in these places, if preventive measures are not adopted.
寨卡病毒是新型流行病之一，据报道在过去一年已感染数百万人。寨卡病毒报告出现地区的适宜气候条件，尤其是在人口密度高的地区，是当前该疾病爆发和传播的主要原因。事实上，某些地区的适宜气候条件构成了全球疾病传播和爆发的完美滋生地。本研究的主要目的是分析埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊这两种寨卡病毒主要传播媒介在全球的分布及预测区域。利用物理变量（航天飞机雷达地形测绘任务数据）和气候变量（世界气候数据），基于这些蚊子发育的最佳条件获取易感性地图。易感性模型是使用物种分布模型——相关模型，即最大熵模型开发的，该模型将两种传播媒介的空间参考数据（Dryad数字资源库）作为输入。结果显示了在评估每种蚊子存在情况时所使用的每个自变量的最重要类别，以及这些传播媒介物种易出现的区域。结果表明，埃及伊蚊在全球的分布范围比白纹伊蚊更广，尽管有两个共同区域作为两种蚊子最易出现的地区格外突出（热带和亚热带地区）。这些易感性较高的地区与人口密度较大的地区（如印度、中国、美国东南部和巴西）的交叉区域显示出一定的一致性，并且由于有寨卡病毒的若干记录（健康地图项目），这些地区格外突出。从这个意义上说，通过易感性与人类暴露情况的交叉分析，确定了寨卡病毒发展和传播风险增加的区域，这表明如果不采取预防措施，这些地方可能会出现该病毒的新一轮爆发。
